What's behind the Brewers' surprising showing to begin 2024?
By Bill Felber
In the eyes of preseason prognosticators, the Milwaukee Brewers were as likely a choice for last place as first in the National League Central.
Yet 50 games into the season, the Brewers have the league’s fourth best record and have held virtually exclusive title to the division lead for five weeks. How?
The answer is a curious one that defies many of the normal baseball tropes dealing with the importance of pitching. Thanks to trades and injuries, the Brewers’ vaunted pitching has basically gone to seed. But in a season marked by its absence of offense, Milwaukee hitters up and down the lineup have blossomed, several of them very surprisingly.
That the pitching decline has not undermined Milwaukee’s status is itself a big surprise. The Brewers lost Corbin Burnes to a trade, and they’ve lost both Brandon Woodruff (since released and re-signed) and closer Devin Williams to injuries. They’ve fallen from first to 13th in MLB in runs allowed per game, from first to 15th in ERA, from 14th to 27th in strikeouts and from 11th to 20th in walks.
Yet they stand 28-20, two games better than their record at a similar point in 2023.
Why have Milwaukee Brewers improved while their pitching has gotten worse?
The key has been virtually an across-the-board improvement in production. At six of the nine offensive positions, either the same Brewer is having is substantially better season, or general manager Matt Arnold found a new body to provide that improvement.
The improvement begins behind the plate, where William Contreras may now rank as the best at what he does. That’s the finding of Wins Above Average, anyway. Led by Contreras, Brewers catchers have to date accumulated 1.4 of them, tying with Kansas City for No. 1 at the position.
Contreras has a 167 OPS+ to date, OPS+ being a statistic that adjusts each player’s offensive production to park and game-wide average on a scale where 100 equals the norm. In civilian terms, Contreras is producing at the rate of one and two-thirds average players. That’s up from 123 a season ago.
Arnold’s front office gave up on 2023 first baseman Rowdy Tellez over the winter and signed free agent Rhys Hoskins, idled all last year by an injury. Hoskins has a 131 OPS+, a 51-point upgrade from 2023 Tellez (who has continued to languish in Pittsburgh).
Brice Turang has been a new and improved version of his old self at second base. Last year, Brewer second basemen – Turang included – ranked 19th at their position in Wins Above Average. This year they – largely meaning Turang – rank third. He’s carrying a 126 OPS+, nearly double his 2023 contribution.
Joey Ortiz came over from Baltimore in the Burnes trade to provide a major upgrade at third base. Last season, Brewers third basemen ranked 21st in value; with Ortiz leading the way, they’re ninth so far this season. Ortiz has a 158 OPS+; Milwaukee’s main third baseman last year, Brian Anderson, was at 84.
Shortstop Willy Adames and outfielder Christian Yelich have provided improvement from inside. Adames’ 107 OPS+ is up 14 points from last season; Yelich’s 180 is up 58 points.
Finally, Gary Sánchez has held down the DH spot and delivered a 110 OPS+. Last season, Milwaukee’s most-used DH, Jesse Winker, registered at 58, 52 points lower than Sánchez. Brewer DHs ranked 18th in production in 2023; in 2024, they rank sixth.
In a season that has seen batting average across the game fall from .248 to .240 and On Base Plus Slugging from .734 to .699, Milwaukee’s improvements – from .240 to .256 and from .704 to .757 – stand out.
It remains to be seen whether Milwaukee can continue that improved offensive efficiency. So far, however, only the Yankees have made bigger strides in either team batting average or OPS. From one end of the batting order to the other, the improvement in Milwaukee is noteworthy.
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