World Series Game 3: The 10 most decisive moments in MLB history

World Series Game 3 has in recent years become far less of an indicator of overall success than it once was.

From the Series’ inception up to the 1994 strike, the Game 3 winner had a distinct advantage going forward. In those first 90 World Series, the team that won Game 3 went on to win the Series 59 times. That’s a 66 percent success rate.

Since 1995, however, Game 3 winners have been substantially less fortunate, winning only 15 of the 28 World Series. That’s a barely acceptable 54 percent success rate. Seven of the last 10 World Series champions, the 2022 Houston Astros among them, lost Game Three.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers will try to ignore that bad recent history as they play Game 3. But as they do, it might be fun to look back on the best moments from past Series.

This article focuses on the 10 most decisive moments from World Series Games 3

The standard of measurement is Win Probability Added, a relatively new statistic that calculates the extent to which the play in question influenced the game’s outcome.

The stars of Game Three are largely good but not great players who happened upon a moment when opportunity presented itself, and seized that moment. Two are Hall of Famers, but both played a couple generations back and are largely forgotten today. The best-known and most widely recognized among modern fans are probably Tom McCarver, Yasiel Puig and Mark McGwire.

You can keep an eye open for installments looking at the 10 most decisive moments from World Series Games 4 and right on through to Game 7. For tonight, here are the 10 most decisive moments of Games Three.

t-9 John Mize, 1949 New York Yankees. The Yankees won the 1949 World Series in five games, but the outcomes were breathtakingly close. The Yanks and National League champion Brooklyn Dodgers split a pair of 1-0 games to open the Series, and the third game was tied 1-1 entering the top of the ninth at Ebbets Field.

Facing Dodger starter Ralph Branca, Yogi Berra drew a one-out walk but was left there when third baseman Eddie Miksis put away Joe DiMaggio’s foul pop. Then a Bobby Brown single and walk to Gene Woodling loaded the bases for Mize, called on by Yankee manager Casey Stengel to  pinch hit for Cliff Mapes.

Mize was a notorious power hitter who had led his league with 51 and then 40 homers the previous two seasons. Eventually those stats would win him a Hall of Fame plaque. But acquired by the Yankees that summer from the Giants, he had been used only sparingly, with just 28 plate appearances.

But if Mize’s power potential was on the wane, his bat skills remained good enough to line a base hit into right field scoring Berra and Brown. New York added a third run, offsetting a pair of Dodger home runs in the bottom of the ninth and giving the Yankees a 4-3 victory. Mize Win Probability Added: 39 percent.

t-9. Willie Aikens, 1980 Kansas City Royals. The National League champion Philadelphia Phillies had won the first two games of the Series at home, and three times had overcome a one-run deficit to take Game 3 at Kaufmann Stadium into extra innings tied 3-3. The Series looked like it could be headed for a Phillies sweep.

Royals hopes rose when U.L. Washington opened the bottom of the 10th with a base hit and Willie Wilson followed by drawing a walk off Phillies closer Tug McGraw.  The Royals were a small ball team – they led the AL in steals with 185 – so it was no surprise when Washington took off for third base. But doing so violated a cardinal rule – never make the first out at third base – and that’s what Washington did when Phils catcher Bob Boone threw him out.

After McGraw retired Frank White on strikes, Wilson doubled down on the running strategy, stealing second. But that only opened the path for McGraw to intentionally walk AL MVP George Brett and throw the issue to Aikens, hitting behind him.

Aikens made McGraw pay for his insolence, lining a 2-1 pitch into center field for the single that sent Wilson gleefully home with the game winning run. The Phillies still won the Series, but it took them six games. Aikens Win Probability Added: 39 percent.

t-9. Mark Lemke, 1991 Atlanta Braves. The AL champion Minnesota Twins had taken the Series’ first two games at the Metrodome, then overcome a 4-1 Braves lead with three late runs to send the game into extra innings. The possibility of a sweep loomed.

Lemke was an unlikely candidate to fill the role of hero. A 25-year-old backup to Jeff Treadway, he had hit just .234 in the regular season with almost no power. Still he had gotten the starting nod for game Two, and Braves manager Bobby Cox stayed with Lemke for the third game.

As that contest moved into extra innings, Lemke was one-for-four – a second inning single leading to Atlanta’s first run –with a walk. He batted a fifth time in the bottom of the 12th, facing Twins closer Rick Aguilera with two out, Dave Justice carrying the winning run at second base and Greg Olson at first.

Lemke caught Aguilera’s one-one pitch and sent it looping just out of reach of Twins shortstop Greg Gagne. The ball fell in short left field while Justice, running with two out, barely beat Dan Gladden’s throw home to score the winning run. Lemke’s hit locked up the Braves’ first win in a Series they would eventually lose in a memorable Game 7 pitcher’s duel. Lemke Win Probability Added: 39 percent.

8. Home Run Baker, 1911 Philadelphia Athletics. The era’s powerhouses, Connie Mack’s Philadelphia Athletics and John McGraw’s New York Giants, had split the Series’ first two games, the A’s win coming on a late-game home run by third baseman Frank Baker.

The next morning, Giants star Christy Mathewson, in his syndicated newspaper column, upbraided teammate Rube Marquard for the fatal pitch he had thrown to Baker. In Game Three that afternoon at the Polo Grounds, Mathewson took a 1-0 lead into the ninth inning when Baker made him eat his own words.

Two outs from victory, Mathewson fell behind Baker 2-1 then fed the American League home champion (with 11) something he could get hold of. Baker deposited it deep into the right field sets for a game-tying home run. It took until the 11th inning to break the tie, but eventually the A’s walked off the field 3-2 winners. They would go onto win the Series in six games.

And Baker, having taken Marquard and Mathewson deep in consecutive games, acquired a new nickname. From that day forward and right up to his Hall of Fame induction, he would be known as Home Run Baker. Baker Win Probability Added: 40 percent.

7. Geoff Blum, 2005 Chicago White Sox. A journeyman infielder, Blum spent most of his career in Houston, and only part of that 2005 season on Chicago’s South Side. So the irony that the biggest moment of his career should occur against those Astros (and in Houston to boot) is inescapable.

As Game 3 of the 2005 Series began at Minute Maid Park with the White Sox up two games to none, Blum wasn’t even in the lineup. In fact his entire World Series experience consisted of a single at bat. He used it to make White Sox history.

Entering a 5-5 tie game as a defensive replacement in the bottom of the 13th inning, Blum’s chance presented itself with two out in the top of the 14th. Facing Ezequiel Astacio, Houston’s seventh pitcher of the evening, Blum took two balls and then unleashed magic. His line drive barely cleared the right field wall, but when it did it gave Chicago a 6-5 lead. The Sox went on to win 7-5 and complete their Series sweep one night later. Blum Win Probability Added: 41 percent.

t-4. Bill Johnson, 1943 New York Yankees. Johnson was a 24-year-old rookie awaiting a call from his draft board to serve in World War II when the Yankees met the National league champion St. Louis Cardinals in a rematch of the 1942 World Series. To that point, his biggest contribution had been reaching base on a sixth inning error that allowed the Yanks to score their only run.

When Johnson got his next chance in the bottom of the eighth at Yankee Stadium, the stakes were considerably higher. With Cardinal starter Al Brazle still nursing that 2-1 lead, Johnston stared out at a bases loaded situation and just one batter retired. The contest was in the rookie’s hands.

Johnson made the most of it, taking a strike and then lashing Brazle’s second pitch to the far reaches of the left-center field area. All three baserunners scored as Johnson pulled up at third base with a triple that was the key to their eventual 6-2 victory.

New York won the Series in five games. Johnson Win Probability Added: 42 percent.

t-4. Mark McGwire, 1988 Oakland A’s. Coming off Kirk Gibson’s historic Game One walk-off, the Dodgers had also taken Game Two and were in position to sweep the favored Oakland A’s as Game Three played out at the Coliseum in Oakland.

The teams, both deep into their bullpens, were tied 1-1 entering the bottom of the ninth, and Oakland’s best hope lay in its Bash Brothers, Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire, who were due to bat first and second.

Jay Howell, the fourth Dodger pitcher, disposed of Canseco on a weak popup behind second. McGwire worked the count to 2-2, then lined Howell’s next offering into the left-center field seats for 2-1 victory. No big surprise there; McGwire had hit 32 of them during the regular season.

A’s fans left happy but their euphoria was short-lived. Los Angeles won the next two games to close out the Series in five. McGwire’s home run was almost literally Oakland’s only highlight in one of the Series’ biggest upsets. McGwire Win Probability Added: 42 percent.

t-4. Yasiel Puig, 2018 Los Angeles Dodgers. Game Three of the 2018 World Series between the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox was an epic 18-inning back-and-forth struggle, the longest World Series game  ever both in terms of length and time (7 hours, 20 minutes). That left plenty of opportunity for twists and turns.

The biggest of those twists occurred in the bottom of the 13th and erased what was at that point a 2-1 Red Sox lead. The Sox had seized that lead moments before when Eduardo Nunez’ single drove in Brock Holt with what looked at the time like a game-winning run.

Puig had other ideas. After Max Muncy opened the bottom of the 13th with a base on balls, Sox reliever Nathan Eovaldi – working his second of six-plus innings – retired Manny Machado and Cody Bellinger, leaving Muncy – now at second base – as the final obstacle.

But Puig was not ready to quit. On a 1-1 count he grounded a ball past Eovaldi and into center field for the hit that scored Muncy with the re-ting run and ensuring that the contest would be waged for another 90 minutes or so still tied at 2-2.

Not until Muncy homered off Eovaldi leading off the bottom of the 18th could the Dodgers claim what would be their only victory in a Series the Red Sox won in five games. Puig Win Probability Added: 42 percent.