Yoshinobu Yamamoto Rumors: Where the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox stand
The Yoshinobu Yamamoto rumor mill is heating up
Now that Shohei Ohtani is officially a Dodger and we are past the long nightmare that was not knowing the name of his dog, the biggest domino that has yet to fall in the free agent market is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto is the rare case of a young pitcher (he is just 25 years old) with fantastic stuff and a track record of performing (three time Pacific League MVP, three time Japanese Triple Crown winner) actually hitting the free agent market.
Sure, the track record of Japanese pitchers coming over to MLB hasn't always been the best, but the success rate has gone up in recent years and there is no denying that Yamamoto's stuff certainly passes the eye test. All of that adds up to league-wide interest in him to the point where it is now thought that he could get offers in the realm of $300 million which is pretty silly.
Yamamoto does not appear to be in much of a hurry to make a decision
Until Yamamoto signs, it is likely that the starting pitching market is going to be in stasis as the big spenders hold off on signing guys like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery until he is officially off the market. The initial thought was that he was likely to make a decision by Christmas, but it now looking like it could take a bit longer than that.
Growing sense among teams bidding on Yoshinobu Yamamato is that a decision won't be made until after Christmas. Could stretch into the January 1-4 window.
— Bob Klapisch (@BobKlap) December 19, 2023
The good news is that if Klapisch's report is true, the meat of MLB free agency will almost assuredly get pushed well into January and will remain interesting for longer. The bad news is, well, the meat of MLB free agency will get pushed well into January and everyone is going to be doing a lot of waiting in the meantime with the occasional minor signing to hold us over.
To get a better sense of where Yamamoto's market stands right now, let's take a look at the main contenders for Yoshinobu's services.
The Red Sox may be behind the New York teams in the Yamamoto Derby
There is no denying that the Red Sox could use Yamamoto in their rotation. Aside from the fact that every team in the league could use an arm of his caliber, Boston's rotation was a mess in 2023 and they lost one of the best performing arms they had in James Paxton to free agency. So far, Boston hasn't don't anything to address their most glaring weakness this offseason.
Given that, the Red Sox have been very aggressive in trying to convince Yamamoto to sign with them. They have already had one meeting with them and appear to be poised to offer him a very healthy nine figure guarantee, but the sense right now is that Boston is behind both the Mets and Yankees when it comes to convincing him to sign. If they can get a second meeting with him, all of that could obviously change especially if Boston is very aggressive with their contract offer.
The Dodgers are mulling a huge offer for Yamamoto
Despite signing Ohtani and trading for Tyler Glasnow, the Dodgers remain in the hunt for top end starting pitching help. Clayton Kershaw's future is very much in doubt as shoulder surgery will keep him out until at least this summer and their starting rotation is very speculative even with Glasnow in tow given his track record of injuries.
The structure of Ohtani's deal is such that LA continues to have plenty of room on their payroll and they are expected to remain big players for Yamamoto going forward. In fact, the current rumor is that they are already prepared to offer him between $250-300 million which would put them right in line with what observers are expecting him to command on the market.
The SF Giants desperately want to land Yamamoto
It isn't a secret that the Giants want to make a big splash this offseason after missing out on Aaron Judge last offseason and Carlos Correa's deal fell through, but they have found a lot of difficulty in actually pulling that off. Shohei Ohtani spurned them for the Dodgers and while signing Jung Hoo Lee was a nice start, they have yet to land the big name they seek.
Right now, it appears that the Giants are just hoping to hang around in Yamamoto's bidding long enough to be able to woo him with a strong offer. They met with Yamamoto last week and are still in the running, but they are perceived to be behind the New York teams in the pecking order as well. The longer this process takes to play out, it is possible that the Giants' odds will improve especially given that they are on the west coast and are able to pony up at the negotiating table.
Yamamoto has had multiple meetings with the Mets with Cohen's wallet still open
Despite the fact that the Mets have declared very publicly that they are not looking to push for contention until 2025, Yamamoto's free agency is a case where signing him now would set the Mets up nicely for when they expect to compete again. Mets owner Steve Cohen clearly has the money to sign Yamamoto and locking him up now would help solidify their plans as well as their rotation going forward.
Right now, the Mets are among the favorites to land him. Cohen flew to Japan to meet with Yamamoto before he began his tour of team meetings in the states and have met with him a second time since then. Money will be no object if Cohen wants him, so finances aren't going to be what costs the Mets if they lose out on Yamamoto. The only question is whether or not Yoshinobu believes that the Mets will be able to field a playoff contender in the next couple of years.
The Yankees are still favorites to sign Yamamoto
If you are a looking for a betting favorite to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, look no further than the Yankees. The Yankees are MLB's biggest global brand and they play in the biggest market which has to be very appealing. In addition to that, they are highly motivated to push their chips in given that they just traded for Juan Soto and they may only have him for this year given his contract status and the fact that Scott Boras is his agent. Given all of that, they are the frontrunners for Yamamoto at the moment.
"The Yankees are viewed by many as the frontrunner and I still think that is the case."@jonmorosi shares the latest on Yoshinobu Yamamoto's market. #MLBNHotStove pic.twitter.com/kjCU65KPJl
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 19, 2023
The Yankees have the money to meet Yoshinobu's contract demands, they are certainly motivated to land him, and they have the drawing power as an organization that few teams possess. After multiple meetings with Yamamoto's team, New York is optimistic about their chances to snag him. If they pull it off, things could get very exciting very quickly as the Yankees will instantly become a top playoff contender going into 2024.