Pursuing Juan Soto, do the Red Sox need to trade a former free agent star?

While most of us were enjoying Thanksgiving football, rumors began to fly around that the Boston Red Sox were nearing a deal with the holy grail of all free agents: Juan Soto.

ESPN's Jeff Passan was quick to strike any and all rumors down with authority, giving Yankees fans a chance to breathe on their day off.

Still, the rumors were far from unfounded. It's well known that Soto took a meeting with the Red Sox early in the offseason, coming away impressed with what Boston had to offer. If the superstar outfielder is seriously going to consider joining forces with the Bronx Bombers' biggest rivals, the BoSox may need to do a little housekeeping to get things in order for Soto's arrival.

Masataka Yoshida's time may be up in Boston

Since signing a five-year, $90-million contract in December 2022, Masatake Yoshida has mostly lived up to his profile, but failed to deliver on the great ceiling that his seven-year run in the NPB with the Orix Buffaloes portended: a .327/.421/.539 slash line with 133 home runs.

Over his first two seasons with the Red Sox, the former outfielder has played in 248 of a possible 324 games, accrued 2.8 WAR, posted an OPS of .775 and OPS+ of 111, and produced 82 extra-base hits. That’s hardly a porous performance, but for a guy making $18 million per year — tied for the third-highest figure on the team last year, behind only Rafael Devers and Trevor Story — it pales in comparison to what the team needs.

Of course, Yoshida was dealing with multiple injury issues this past year, including a left thumb strain that sidelined him for nearly six weeks during the first half. Recently, fans have also become privy to a previously undisclosed shoulder injury that required Yoshida to get an MRI in late September. Last month, we found out the severity of that injury, as the team announced that Yoshida had shoulder surgery in early October.

Naturally, shoulder injuries are a big deal for hitters, and the timeline for previous labrum surgeries offers a wide range of possible outcomes for Yoshida’s recovery. Baseball Prospectus’s Recovery Dashboard lists six position players who underwent shoulder labrum surgery since 2016, as well as how long it took for them to return to game action in the major leagues.

The average player rehabbed for roughly 4.5 months, so assuming an average recovery, that would put Yoshida’s return at February 21, 2025. That’s exactly one week after pitchers and catchers report on February 14, and two days after the first full-squad workouts begin on February 19.

Now, there’s a wide range of outcomes on that dashboard, and the best-case scenario appears to be a sub-four-month rehab period, while the longest recovery window was more than six months. That means Yoshida could be ready to roll before Spring Training starts, or he could be out until late April. Most importantly, this is a small data set of players with similar surgeries. The severity of Yoshida’s injury is unknown to the public, and his exact timeline could differ for any number of reasons.

This news also further wrecks Yoshida’s trade value, which was already a huge question mark last offseason, when the then-primary left fielder was deemed to have an “untradeable contract”.

Yoshida simply won't command much in a trade as a designated hitter without a ton of over-the-fence power. However, improved plate discipline (his strikeout and walk rates improved from 2023 to 2024), and an increased fly ball rate (19.4% in 2023, 24.4% in 2024) could have at least given the Red Sox some added leverage in discussions.

There's an argument to be made that Yoshida managed an above-average season at the plate despite playing hurt all year, and that he could improve once he's fully healthy. Still, no team will be champing at the bit to acquire $54 million in remaining salary for a player who went under the knife just two months ago.

So, where does that leave Boston? Yoshida's contract is a weight on the team's payroll, and a potential Soto signing would make him more than redundant on a team that already has lefty hitters Rafael Devers and Triston Casas in the middle of the lineup.

Even if the team doesn't land Soto, there's sense in trying to move Yoshida while he still has some unrealized potential. They'll probably have to eat a chunk of his contract, but the Red Sox could grant themselves a lot of flexibility — both in terms of money and lineup construction — by admitting their mistake in signing the Japanese star a few years back.

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