Heading into April 23rd's slate of games, the Detroit Tigers are leading the AL Central with a 15-10 record, just 0.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Guardians.
A lot of players have contributed to the team's hot start, including reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (2.83 ERA), co-ace Jack Flaherty (2.63 ERA), star rookie Jackson Jobe (2.70 ERA), utility player Zach McKinstry (163 wRC+), right fielder Kerry Carpenter (147 wRC+), and even a competently-performing Javier Báez.
However, the team is being carried by a pair of former No. 1 overall picks who are finally living up to their potential in 2025.
Casey Mize, Spencer Torkelson leading Detroit Tigers revolution
Casey Mize, the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, currently leads the rotation in ERA at 2.22. Meanwhile, the leader in most offensive categories in Detroit is Spencer Torkelson, the first overall pick in 2020.
Both players have had long, winding roads to get to this point. Mize had a career 4.36 ERA in 291 MLB innings heading into this season, struggling to strike hitters out (18.2% strikeout rate) and proving susceptible to the long ball (1.3 home runs per nine allowed). Considering he missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 with Tommy John and back surgeries, it was easy to count the right-hander out.
Likewise, Torkelson quickly ascended through the minor leagues only to stall out at the highest level. He was worth less than one fWAR in his first 361 big league games, totaling a wRC+ below 100 (league average).
Now, though, the two top picks are more than living up to their draft billing. Mize showed his potential in 2021 when he racked up 3.4 bWAR and a 3.71 ERA in 150 1/3 innings; Torkleson did the same in the second half of 2023, slashing .238/.320/.506 with a wRC+ of 125 in his final 300 plate appearances that year.
The 2025 version of both is better than anything they've previously shown — they are finally beginning to look like the course-altering, faces of the franchise their scouting profiles promised they would be.
Now, Mize's performance may not be quite so sustainable, as his gargantuan 90.4% left-on-base rate is at a ridculous level, as is his .194 BABIP. He'll have to start striking out more than 18.9% of the hitters he faces, too.
That being said, all of his pitchers are producing above-average results, and he's proving rather adept at generating a lot of weak contact. Even if he doesn't pitch like a staff ace, the Tigers will be in really good position if Mize settles in as a No. 3 behind Skubal and Flaherty.
Torkelson, meanwhile, is authoring a far more believable start. He's hitting the crap out of the ball — he's in the 80th percentile or better in exit velocity, barrel%, and hard-hit% — and is continuing to be one of the best in the league at laying off bad pitches. If he can adjust his approach to be a little more patient at the plate, he'll be the most well-rounded hitter on the roster.
Even if both players begin to slow down in their production, it's clear the former No. 1 overall picks are healthy and at the top of their games. So long as that's true, the Tigers will be the class of the AL Central.