The Minnesota Twins' starting rotation is off to a rough start. They currently have a league-worst 6.26 ERA, with three of the five starters posting an ERA over 5.50. This is a big reason why the Twins are 4-9 and in fourth place in the AL Central — nowhere near where they were projected to be before the season started.
Although the starting staff has struggled, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober have been the bright spots. They are the only two starters the Twins have been able to rely on in the early going. However, they will be down one of those starters for the foreseeable future, as Lopez has been placed on the IL with a Grade One hamstring strain. The Twins need to go outside the organization for pitching help, and free agent pitcher Spencer Turnbull is just what they need.
How Spencer Turnbull will help the Twins starting rotation
Despite being one of MLB Trade Rumors' top 50 free agents, Turnbull is still looking for a job. This is due to Turnbull missing the last three months of 2024 with a lat strain.
Injuries have unfortunately become the norm in Turnbull's career, causing many to fear his durability. However, he's an effective pitcher when he's on the mound. Before going on the IL, he had an ERA of 2.65 over 54.1 innings, generating 58 strikeouts to 20 walks, a 1.049 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 154.
Turnbull throws six pitches, but his most effective are his curveball and slider. Although he does not throw them as much as his other pitches, according to Baseball Savant, they both generated a wOBA below .200 last year.
He saves those two pitches for his put-away pitch, throwing them 50.7% of the time to get batters out. The curveball has a whiff percentage of 59.4 and an opposing batting average of .061, while his slider has a whiff percentage of 40.0 and an opposing batting average of .071.
Again, those stats are pulling from small sample sizes (he didn't throw either pitch more than 100 times in 2024), but the threat of those breaking pitches in his arsenal makes his priority pitches play up.
Beyond the curveball and slider, Turnbull relies on his four-seam fastball and sweeper the most. He throws his four-seamer 35% of the time, and opposing hitters have a .280 batting average and a 16.2 whiff percentage. His sweeper is used 33.2% of the time, and opposing hitters have a .145 batting average and a 30.8 whiff percentage.
Not only is Turnbull effective with his pitches, but he's also flexible in how he pitches. In 2024, he split time as a starter and a reliever. This is something the Twins can use to their advantage. Although losing Lopez to injury is tough, he should only be on the minimum 15 days.
Signing Turnbull — who is currently working out for teams — allows him to take Lopez's spot in the rotation for now, with the potential to move to the bullpen when Lopez comes back. Alternatively, if they are ready to give up on Chris Paddack, he could be a long-term addition to the rotation.
Overall, signing Turnbull would improve the Twins' pitching situation. Whether as a regular starter in their rotation or as a swingman/long reliever in the bullpen, Turnbull will go a long way toward helping the Twins turn their disastrous start around.