Three shocking Qualifying Offer decisions that could change MLB free agency

The MLB Qualifying Offer deadline is tomorrow, November 19, at 4 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Only one player thus far, Cincinnati Reds starter Nick Martinez, has made a decision on his QO, choosing to accept the one-year, $21.05 million deal rather than hit free agency with the associated baggage. Twelve other players have yet to decide what they'll do with less than a day to go.

As a reminder, any player tendered the qualifying offer has two choices: they can accept the one-year deal and remain with their current team, or they can choose to decline the offer and hit free agency. Any player given a QO that hits free agency is tied to draft pick compensation; the team that signs them will lose draft picks and international signing bonus money (depending on their status as a Competitive Balance Tax payor or Revenue-Sharing recipient), while the team that loses them will be eligible for additional draft picks (depending on the size of the contract and the team that signs them).

It's also worth keeping in mind that players can only be given a qualifying offer once in their careers. All 13 of the players with that designation this offseason can never been extended the offer again.

With those restrictions in mind, it's worth looking at the roster of players who have a decision to make on November 19. Obviously, players like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Max Fried are going to let the deadline pass without accepting, as they seek large multi-year deals in free agency. But for those other players who are less certain, are there any that could shake up the rumor mill with a surprising decision?

1. Teoscar Hernández: Accepts QO

The star outfielder signed with the Dodgers on a one-year, $23.5 million contract last offseason. He proceeded to hit a career-high 33 home runs and lifted his OPS by 99 points from 2023 (.741 to .840). Why on earth would he accept the qualifying offer for less money than he just earned?

The answer is twofold. First, another season in L.A. would give Hernández a prime chance to win another ring and continue adding to his impressive postseason résumé. Likewise, another season of hitting behind Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman would put him in a position to continue racking up elite numbers.

Second, the qualifying offer has done serious damage to certain players' markets in recent year. Take just last offseason for example: Cody Bellinger was coming off a resurgent 2023 campaign in which he posted an .881 OPS and won NL Comeback Player of the Year honors. He had to settle for a three-year, $80 million deal with the incumbent Cubs.

Matt Chapman also faced a market that soured on him with draft pick compensation attached. Despite being a four-time gold glover with a career .790 OPS, he was forced to settle for a one-year, $18 million contract with the Giants. Heck, reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell couldn't find anything better than a two-year deal worth $62 million.

Bellinger has since opted into the next year of his contract, though Chapman re-signed for $151 million to remain in San Fransisco. Snell will hit free agency again this year and should have no problem striking it rich without the QO weighing on him.

Hernández could (and probably will) test the free agent waters, but he may find a shallower-than-expected market. Instead of trying to make the most of a bad situation and signing with a non-contender, he could run it back with the Dodgers for one more year, and hit free agency next offseason looking for a long-term deal.

3. Pete Alonso, Accepts QO

This is certainly the biggest reach of any player here, as Alonso has long been seen as a candidate for a nine-figure contract in free agency.

However, his 2024 season was not a strong one by his standards. His 34 home runs look good on paper, but that's the lowest total of any (non-Covid) season of his career. Ditto for his .788 OPS. He went through prolonged slumps throughout the season, and were it not for his epic, series-clinching home run in the ninth inning off Devin Williams in the Wild Card round, fans would not have remembered his year fondly.

His underlying metrics don't paint a prettier picture. His 24.8% strikeout rate was his highest since 2020. His groundball rate skyrocketed to a career-high 42.0%, which in turn knocked down his fly ball rate to 29.3%. That is a serious problem for a power hitter.

You can be sure teams will be paying attention to this. And the franchise with the most money to spend that has a need at first base—his incumbent team, the New York Mets—may be a little preoccupied with their half-billion dollar pursuit of Juan Soto.

Again, this is far from the expectation. Alonso is a perennial 35-homer threat, with a career OPS closer to 1.000 than .700. He should receive more than $100 million in free agency, and might even crack the $200 million barrier.

However, if his goal is to remain in the Big Apple with the Mets, he may find that the best way of doing so is by accepting the qualifying offer. If he can improve on some of his down numbers from 2024 next season, he could hit free agency a year from now (at just 30 years old) with a chance to sign the largest deal for any first baseman in history.

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