2. Nick Pivetta: Declines QO
That the veteran even received a qualifying offer from Boston qualifies as a bit of a shock, as Pivetta pitched to a mediocre 4.14 ERA (4.07 FIP) across 26 starts and 145 2/3 innings in 2024. He's turned his career around somewhat since arriving in Massachusetts in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but his ERA in that time is still 4.29. An ace, he is not.
However, a quick look under the hood reveals a pitcher who is more than meets the eye. Pivetta ranked in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate (28.9%) this past season, while his 6.1% walk rate was in the 80th percentile.
Nick Pivetta ties a @RedSox franchise record with eight consecutive strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/swB43Y8p40
— MLB (@MLB) May 31, 2024
He's completed at least 140 innings in each of his four full seasons with the Red Sox, and his ERA+ in that time is above-average (102; 100 is league-average). He isn't going to be any contender's Game One starter, but as a reliable innings eater with solid metrics, he'd make for a fine No. 3 or No. 4 in any rotation.
That profile has value, even with the qualifying offer attached. At 31 years old (32 before Opening Day), Pivetta may not find another chance to strike it rich in free agency, especially if he has a down year in 2025.
Sonny Gray got three years and $75 million as a 34-year-old in free agency last offseason with the qualifying offer attached, though he was coming off a significantly better year than Pivetta. With a little more youth and fewer injury concerns on his side, Pivetta should be able to nab a similar length deal, even if he has to give up a few million dollars per year to do so.