3. Pete Alonso, Accepts QO
This is certainly the biggest reach of any player here, as Alonso has long been seen as a candidate for a nine-figure contract in free agency.
However, his 2024 season was not a strong one by his standards. His 34 home runs look good on paper, but that's the lowest total of any (non-Covid) season of his career. Ditto for his .788 OPS. He went through prolonged slumps throughout the season, and were it not for his epic, series-clinching home run in the ninth inning off Devin Williams in the Wild Card round, fans would not have remembered his year fondly.
Pete Alonso's home run, as called by @Mets radio broadcaster Howie Rose 🐻❄️ pic.twitter.com/6JnB1GW2ma
— MLB (@MLB) October 4, 2024
His underlying metrics don't paint a prettier picture. His 24.8% strikeout rate was his highest since 2020. His groundball rate skyrocketed to a career-high 42.0%, which in turn knocked down his fly ball rate to 29.3%. That is a serious problem for a power hitter.
You can be sure teams will be paying attention to this. And the franchise with the most money to spend that has a need at first base—his incumbent team, the New York Mets—may be a little preoccupied with their half-billion dollar pursuit of Juan Soto.
Again, this is far from the expectation. Alonso is a perennial 35-homer threat, with a career OPS closer to 1.000 than .700. He should receive more than $100 million in free agency, and might even crack the $200 million barrier.
However, if his goal is to remain in the Big Apple with the Mets, he may find that the best way of doing so is by accepting the qualifying offer. If he can improve on some of his down numbers from 2024 next season, he could hit free agency a year from now (at just 30 years old) with a chance to sign the largest deal for any first baseman in history.