Three shocking Qualifying Offer decisions that could change MLB free agency

The MLB Qualifying Offer deadline is tomorrow, November 19, at 4 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. Only one player thus far, Cincinnati Reds starter Nick Martinez, has made a decision on his QO, choosing to accept the one-year, $21.05 million deal rather than hit free agency with the associated baggage. Twelve other players have yet to decide what they'll do with less than a day to go.

As a reminder, any player tendered the qualifying offer has two choices: they can accept the one-year deal and remain with their current team, or they can choose to decline the offer and hit free agency. Any player given a QO that hits free agency is tied to draft pick compensation; the team that signs them will lose draft picks and international signing bonus money (depending on their status as a Competitive Balance Tax payor or Revenue-Sharing recipient), while the team that loses them will be eligible for additional draft picks (depending on the size of the contract and the team that signs them).

It's also worth keeping in mind that players can only be given a qualifying offer once in their careers. All 13 of the players with that designation this offseason can never been extended the offer again.

With those restrictions in mind, it's worth looking at the roster of players who have a decision to make on November 19. Obviously, players like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and Max Fried are going to let the deadline pass without accepting, as they seek large multi-year deals in free agency. But for those other players who are less certain, are there any that could shake up the rumor mill with a surprising decision?

1. Teoscar Hernández: Accepts QO

The star outfielder signed with the Dodgers on a one-year, $23.5 million contract last offseason. He proceeded to hit a career-high 33 home runs and lifted his OPS by 99 points from 2023 (.741 to .840). Why on earth would he accept the qualifying offer for less money than he just earned?

The answer is twofold. First, another season in L.A. would give Hernández a prime chance to win another ring and continue adding to his impressive postseason résumé. Likewise, another season of hitting behind Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman would put him in a position to continue racking up elite numbers.

Second, the qualifying offer has done serious damage to certain players' markets in recent year. Take just last offseason for example: Cody Bellinger was coming off a resurgent 2023 campaign in which he posted an .881 OPS and won NL Comeback Player of the Year honors. He had to settle for a three-year, $80 million deal with the incumbent Cubs.

Matt Chapman also faced a market that soured on him with draft pick compensation attached. Despite being a four-time gold glover with a career .790 OPS, he was forced to settle for a one-year, $18 million contract with the Giants. Heck, reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell couldn't find anything better than a two-year deal worth $62 million.

Bellinger has since opted into the next year of his contract, though Chapman re-signed for $151 million to remain in San Fransisco. Snell will hit free agency again this year and should have no problem striking it rich without the QO weighing on him.

Hernández could (and probably will) test the free agent waters, but he may find a shallower-than-expected market. Instead of trying to make the most of a bad situation and signing with a non-contender, he could run it back with the Dodgers for one more year, and hit free agency next offseason looking for a long-term deal.

2. Nick Pivetta: Declines QO

That the veteran even received a qualifying offer from Boston qualifies as a bit of a shock, as Pivetta pitched to a mediocre 4.14 ERA (4.07 FIP) across 26 starts and 145 2/3 innings in 2024. He's turned his career around somewhat since arriving in Massachusetts in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but his ERA in that time is still 4.29. An ace, he is not.

However, a quick look under the hood reveals a pitcher who is more than meets the eye. Pivetta ranked in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate (28.9%) this past season, while his 6.1% walk rate was in the 80th percentile.

He's completed at least 140 innings in each of his four full seasons with the Red Sox, and his ERA+ in that time is above-average (102; 100 is league-average). He isn't going to be any contender's Game One starter, but as a reliable innings eater with solid metrics, he'd make for a fine No. 3 or No. 4 in any rotation.

That profile has value, even with the qualifying offer attached. At 31 years old (32 before Opening Day), Pivetta may not find another chance to strike it rich in free agency, especially if he has a down year in 2025.

Sonny Gray got three years and $75 million as a 34-year-old in free agency last offseason with the qualifying offer attached, though he was coming off a significantly better year than Pivetta. With a little more youth and fewer injury concerns on his side, Pivetta should be able to nab a similar length deal, even if he has to give up a few million dollars per year to do so.