Trading Cody Bellinger would be painful for Cubs, but the right move

This time last year, Cody Bellinger was coming off his best season in years, as he won the 2023 National League Comeback Player of the Year award for his work anchoring the Cubs lineup. His 139 OPS+ was his best since the 2019 campaign when he won NL MVP (167 OPS+), and it was clear that Chicago needed to retain his lefty bat in the middle of the order if they hoped to escape their rebuild.

What happened next was nothing short of a disaster, as Bellinger (as well as agent Scott Boras's other top clientele) got phased out of the higher-end of the bidding pool in free agency. Bellinger's deal was particularly unique, as the three-year, $80 million contract was broken down into three separate years of different pay, with the outfielder/first baseman holding player options between each season of the deal.

With the 2024 season concluded, Bellinger's first chance to trigger an opt-out came and went. He elected to remain with the Cubs for at least next season, putting Chicago on the hook for his $27.5 million salary.

The issue, of course, is that Bellinger was far less productive in 2024 than he was during his maiden season on the North Side, as his OPS tumbled over 100 points (.881 to .751), and his WAR was slashed in half, from 4.4 to 2.2.

Cubs returning all nine starters in lineup in 2025

Bellinger's retention also means the team's entire starting lineup—which ranked just 13th in OPS (.710) and 12th in runs scored (736)—is returning for 2025. There are a few spots left to fill, including backup catcher and Patrick Wisdom's vacated utility role, but the everyday jobs are accounted for. That's particularly an issue for a team that wants to improve offensively, but it also poses a logistical hurdle as most of the team's top prospects are position players.

As such, it's expected that the Cubs will move at least one of their incumbent starters, perhaps with the intention of freeing up payroll space or adding depth to the bullpen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic posed one such hypothetical trade, suggesting that the Wrigley Field inhabitants will look to deal Bellinger this winter.

Bellinger's salary will limit his market severely, as will his player option for next year at a similar figure ($25 million). While still an eminently valuable player, it was clear this past season that Bellinger either wasn't fully healthy like he was in 2023 (once again raising questions about his long-term durability after the cataclysmic end to his tenure in Los Angeles) or caught lightning in a bottle during his first season with the Cubs.

Jed Hoyer and company wouldn't get much in return, but freeing up right field for a top free agent (Juan Soto, anyone?) or a top prospect like Owen Caissie could do wonders for the offense in 2025. Likewise, the team could opt to keep Seiya Suzuki in that spot, and then would be able to sign anyone as the full-time designated hitter.

No matter how you slice it, it feels like the Cubs would benefit from trading Bellinger, assuming they don't have to eat a massive chunk of his salary to make it happen. It's a tough place to be after he had such a resurgent year last season, but Chicago can't just run it back with everyone and assume things will improve after back-to-back 83-79 finishes.

If they can find an aggressive or desperate suitor in the coming months, expect Bellinger to be plying his trade elsewhere in 2025.

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