Why the 2024 NLCS was the MLB Playoffs' biggest snooze-fest
Let’s be candid. As postseason series go, the 2024 NLCS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets was nothing special.
In fact it was so forgettable that you’ve probably already forgotten it.
The two teams went through the motions of six games, not a single one of which contained enough drama to hold through a decent bathroom break. Perhaps the most stunning statistic to emanate from the entire NLCS was this one: In four of the games, the most decisive hit was delivered by the second inning, and in none of them did the drama carry beyond the sixth.
In all six games, the eventual winner had built an insurmountable lead by the end of the third inning, and that lead averaged four runs.
By game’s end, the average winning margin was six runs.
Gripping TV this series was not.
The simplest way to calculate how starved for drama the entire NLCS was is to compare the data on game-turning plays. In the entire 2024 NLCS, the most decisive play – the one that had the greatest impact on a game’s outcome – was Pete Alonso’s Game 5 home run. It increased the likelihood of a Mets victory that day by 21 percent, from 59 percent when he stood in to 80 percent when he touched home plate.
Dramatic? Hardly. That home run came in the first inning…the very first inning! And it was the most decisive play of the entire series.
NLCS between Dodgers and Mets lacked customary MLB Playoffs drama
When a game is decided in the first inning or two – and when it happens night after night -- that’s some dull TV.
By contrast, there were nine plays in the five-game ALCS with more game-turning impact than that, all but two of those unfolding from the eighth inning on. Four of those nine came from the eighth to tenth innings in Game 3 alone.
From a standpoint of influencing the outcome of the championship, the most impactful play was Tommy Edman’s Game 6 first inning two-RBI double, but it only changed the likely series outcome by 3.6 percent.
How trivial a figure is that? Last year’s NLCS between Arizona and Philadelphia had 10 more pivotal plays.
Across the six games, there was not a single moment in which the team leading after the fourth inning had less than a 70 percent chance of winning. And aside from Game 2, there was not a single moment in the other five games at which the team leading after four innings had less than a 90 percent chance of victory.
There were only two saves recorded in the entire series, a fairly stunningly low figure when you consider the reverence that contemporary analysts place on the role of the closer. Edwin Diaz got one in Game 2 for extinguishing a two-out eighth inning threat and protecting a three-run Mets lead that eventually grew to four runs.
And Blake Treinen was awarded a save in Game 6 for recording the final six outs with his team leading by three runs, and eventually winning by five. Treinen got his save despite giving up a ninth inning run.
Interesting twists could define this edition of Dodgers-Yankees World Series matchup