This past season was quite a surprise for the AL Central. Four teams finished within 10.5 games of each other, and three of those four made the postseason. The Chicago White Sox made MLB history, but not the kind of history an organization wants its name tied to. They set the record for the most losses (121) in a single season in baseball's modern era (since 1901).
Since 2016, the Cleveland Guardians have controlled the division, winning it five times. During that span, the Minnesota Twins won the division three times, and the Chicago White Sox won it once.
The Detroit Tigers last won the division in 2014, and the Kansas City Royals won it year a later. However, these two teams are full of returning talent, which was key to both squads' 2024 emergence and postseason runs.
What moves have the division contenders made this offseason?
Cleveland Guardians
After winning the AL Central in 2024, the Cleveland Guardians narrowly beat the Detroit Tigers 3-2 in the ALDS and lost 4-1 to the New York Yankees in the ALCS.
The Guardians have most of their roster under contract in 2025, only losing Alex Cobb (Tigers), James Karinchak, and Matthew Boyd (Cubs) to free agency. Shane Bieber and Austin Hedges entered free agency but re-signed with the team. They have also signed Carlos Santana on a one-year $12 million contract. Santana returns to Cleveland, where he spent the first decade of his career.
The team has been busy in the trade market. Some notable trade departures include trading Andres Gimenez to the Toronto Blue Jays, Josh Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Eli Morgan to the Chicago Cubs, and their notable acquisition of Luis Ortiz from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
In 2025, the Guardians will have the majority of their starting rotation returning from last season. They have Bieber, Tanner Bibee, Tristian McKenzie, Carlos Carrasco, and Logan Allen penciled in as the starting five. Bibee was the only pitcher under a 4.00 ERA last season, so they will need some staff-wide improvements if they hope to repeat in a loaded division.
The team also returns 2024 AL Cy Young finalist Emmanuel Clase to close out games, which is a massive boost to a bullpen that returns most of the arms that contributed to ranking first in the MLB for bullpen ERA (2.67).
Emmanuel Clase, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/nWFvVYRW6o
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 24, 2024
The Guardians have not improved their offense much, but they can win games by leaning hard on the starters to pitch five or six quality innings and then turning the rest of the game over to their stellar bullpen.
Kansas City Royals
After missing the postseason for eight seasons, the Kansas City Royals returned this past season, sweeping the Baltimore Orioles 2-0 in the Wild Card round but then losing the ALDS to the New York Yankees 3-1.
The team has been extremely quiet this offseason. Several older players, including Yuli Gurriel, Josh Taylor, Adam Frazier, Tommy Pham, Will Smith, Robbie Grossman, Michael Lorenzen, Garrett Hampson, and Paul DeJong, have left for free agency, and the only signing was re-signing Michael Wacha to a three-year deal worth $51 million.
The starting rotation was one of the best in the majors in 2024, led by All-Stars Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans, where they had four pitchers start at least 29 games and have a 3.71 ERA or lower. Lugo was also a finalist for the AL Cy Young Award.
That rotation gets stronger as Kyle Wright expects to return after missing all last season due to right shoulder surgery. Kris Bubic could also return to starting games, as he had a 2.67 ERA in 30.1 innings coming out of the bullpen last season. However, his last full campaign as a starter was in 2022, when he compiled a 3-13 record and a 5.58 ERA.
With the Royals' starting pitching depth, they decided Brady Singer was expendable and traded him to the Cincinnati Reds for second baseman Jonathon India and outfielder Joey Wiemer.
TRADE: The Reds are acquiring RHP Brady Singer from the Royals in exchange for IF Jonathan India and OF Joey Wiemer pic.twitter.com/NE2hSg5WHw
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) November 23, 2024
This move slightly strengthens the offense by giving them an everyday leadoff hitter in front of the power trio of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez. India hit .248 with a .357 on-base percentage with 80 walks in 151 games, regularly filling the leadoff role for the Reds this past season.
Suppose the Royals can repeat their starting pitching dominance and maintain consistent offensive production with the addition of India. In that case, the Royals will have a good chance of competing for their first division title in a decade and another postseason run.
Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers returned to the postseason after a nine-season drought. They swept the Houston Astros 2-0 and lost to the Guardians ALDS 3-2.
The team has everyone from the 2024 team still under contract. The only free agency move they have made is adding 37-year-old pitcher Alex Cobb.
The Tigers' pitching staff carried them this past season. MLB.com ranked the starters fourth in ERA (3.69) and the relievers fifth with a 3.55 ERA. The starting rotation is led by AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, who won the triple crown by leading the AL in wins (18), ERA (2.39), and strikeouts (288).
AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal had a tremendous season for the @Tigers 🔥 pic.twitter.com/3Mi0AzEBSq
— MLB (@MLB) December 10, 2024
The offense still needs some massive improvements. Four of the 2025 projected starters on FanGraphs had under a .242 batting average in 2024, including Jake Rodgers (.197). If the team sees improvements from the offense and the pitching staff continues its dominance, the Tigers will be back in the postseason and in contention for another division title.
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins missed a Wild Card berth by four games last season after winning the AL Central in 2023.
It has been a quiet offseason for the Twins, which has been a theme in the AL Central. They have lost Max Kepler (Phillies), Caleb Thielbar, Anthony DeSclafani, Carlos Santana (Guardians), Kyle Farmer (Rockies), and Manuel Margot. There have not been any notable moves to acquire talent for the upcoming year.
Unlike their other AL foes, the Twins struggled in pitching. They ranked 22nd in ERA for starters (4.36) and 19th for their bullpen (4.12). Only Joe Ryan (3.60) and Bailey Ober (3.98) had under a 4.00 ERA.
The offense was around the middle of the pack regarding batting average and on-base percentage, ranking 13th and 12th, respectively. Many stars, including Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Alex Kirloff, Byron Buxton, and Jose Miranda, all missed multiple weeks due to injuries.
For the Twins to return to the postseason and compete for a division title, the pitching staff needs to make massive improvements, and their offensive stars need to stay healthy, although that has been a struggle for multiple seasons. Will they do anything on the free agent or trade market to supplement their roster?
Who will be atop the AL Central in 2025?
As reigning champions, the Guardians will be formidable to dethrone with their starting rotation, bullpen, and most of the offense returning. However, if a team were to do it, it'll likely be the Royals. Kansas City should have a stellar starting rotation with Wright's return and a stronger batting order with the addition of India.
That being said, all four of the top teams in the division can theoretically make a push for the AL Central crown in 2025. Just don't expect the White Sox to join them in that race.