In two consecutive offseasons, the baseball world has seen previously unheard of contract thresholds smashed by the best players in the sport.
In 2023, Shohei Ohtani stunned the baseball world by agreeing to a 10-year, $700 million deal (with heavy deferrals). Just 12 months later, Juan Soto one-upped him, signing a 15-year, $765 million agreement with the New York Mets.
The 2025 free agent class doesn't possess a generational talent akin to those two, but there are two venerable superstars headlining the group.
Kyle Tucker, now a Chicago Cub after being traded by the Houston Astros, doesn't sound all that likely to re-sign in his new digs before getting a crack at the free agent market. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., two years Tucker's junior, has all but shut the door on an extension with the Toronto Blue Jays.
With Guerrero's asking price now out — he admitted to asking for less than $600 million over 15 years, which more than likely means he wants a deal in excess of $500 million — the question becomes: Which of these two sluggers will command the heftiest payday next winter?
Is Kyle Tucker worth more than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
Let's start with Guerrero's reported asking price. He definitively said that he wasn't looking for the deal Juan Soto got, and that his final offer to the Blue Jays came in below $600 million.
So, then, is it reasonable to expect the first baseman to get a deal in excess of 12 years and $500 million? He's had two special seasons in 2021 and 2024, but sandwiched between them were two good-not-great campaigns.
His wRC+ at his peak was 166 in 2021 and 165 last season; in 2022 and 2023, he posted marks of 132 and 118, respectively. Those latter numbers are still solid, but there's a huge difference between being 20-30% better than the average hitter, and 60% better.
To illustrate the point: Guerrero's 165 wRC+ ranked sixth in baseball last year, just a few spots behind Soto and in the company of guys like Yordan Alvarez and Bobby Witt Jr. His new teammate, Anthony Santander, finished 26th with a 129 wRC+, earning a five-year, $92.5 million contract for that career year.
If Guerrero has another year like his 2021 and 2024 efforts in 2025, he'll have a pretty strong case for a $500 million contract, especially since he won't even turn 27 until just a few days before Opening Day 2026.
For both Tucker and Guerrero, a strong analogue, both in terms of age and production, is Bryce Harper. The Phillies slugger was 26 at the time he signed his 13-year, $330 million contract in Philadelphia, though his production was far less consistent than Tucker’s.
Harper won the NL MVP in an all-time great, 9.7 bWAR 2015 season, though that was sandwiched between mediocre seasons in which he was worth just 2.5 bWAR collectively. Tucker, on the other hand, had three consecutive 5.0+ bWAR seasons prior to 2024, when he was worth 4.7 in 78 games played.
Now, obviously, WAR isn’t the only stat that determines a player’s value. In Harper’s first seven seasons with the Nationals, he posted a slash line of .279/.388/.512 (good for a 140 wRC+); in Tucker’s tenure in Houston, his batting line was .274/.353/.516 (139 wRC+). Those are pretty similar profiles, even if Tucker is a higher-floor, lower-ceiling player than Harper.
Of course, some of Tucker’s value also comes from his pristine glove in right field, where he’s totaled eight Outs Above Average (OAA) and nine Fielding Run Value (FRV).
There’s been quite a bit of inflation in baseball since Harper signed his deal in early 2019; Soto and Ohtani have both signed contracts in excess of $700 million since then.
Soto presents an interesting case, since his contract is the most recent data point for elite outfielders, though his age (he just turned 26), ceiling (career .989 OPS), and status as the best hitter in baseball (career 158 wRC+) was always going to ensure that his contract far outpaced anything other players could reasonably expect.
Going back to Harper’s contract, Tucker probably isn’t going to get quite so many years given that he’ll begin his next deal at 29, though a decade-plus is a reasonable expectation for the length of his contract.
Some have questioned if Tucker could get a $40 million AAV on his next deal, and a ten-year, $400 million contract could be feasible. That annual salary would be right in line with Aaron Judge’s nine-year deal, which could mean that Tucker may have to settle for slightly less per year given his relative lack of hardware.
Verdict
So, where does this leave us? Tucker feels like a lock for a $400 million contract in free agency, regardless of how his 2025 campaign with the Cubs goes. His track record is stronger and more consistent than Guerrero's, but his age will likely preclude him from crashing the exclusive $500 million club.
Guerrero, on the other hand, has a lot of money on the line this year. If his 2025 season resembles something akin to his great 2021 and 2024 campaigns, then we might just be looking at baseball's next half-billionaire. If he struggles, though, he probably won't be able to surpass what Tucker gets on the open market.