Could the Houston Astros possibly be better without Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman than they were with those two middle-of-the-order veterans?
Stand by, because with Bregman’s signing by the Boston Red Sox as spring camps opened, we’re about to find out.
Alongside Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, Bregman and Tucker have been the offensive centerpieces to Houston’s run of seven division titles and two World Series wins in the past eight seasons. Tucker was traded to the Chicago Cubs and now Bregman has signed for three seasons and $120 million with the Red Sox. He did so after rejecting a six-year, $156 million offer from the Astros.
As challenging as it is to envision an Astros team that is stronger without two of their centerpieces, there is data to suggest that may be the case.
Part of the reason is that for all their reputations, Tucker and especially Bregman weren't elite in 2024. Tucker’s numbers were really good when he played, but injuries limited him to part-time duty.
The Bregman problem was more insidious and potentially more troubling to the Red Sox. He played 145 games but was unremarkable, producing a 118 OPS+. That translates to being 18 percent better than the major league average, which sounds okay except that it’s 14 points below Bregman’s career average. It's also a minimal return on a $40 million annual investment.
Most of his numbers were personal worsts since 2021, and given that Bregman is now on the wrong side of 30 years old, the best guess is that they continue to decline.
It also helps the Astros’ outlook that Bregman and Tucker aren’t the only departures. Jose Abreu, who stunk up Minute Maid as the incumbent first baseman entering 2024, is gone too, replaced by Christian Walker. While the former Diamondback was only marginally better than average last year, his +0.1 Win Probability Added was a whole lot better than Abreu’s -1.8 WPA.
Here's a comparative look at the Astros starting lineups for 2024 and their projected order for 2025.
Position | 2024 lineup | 2025 projected lineup |
|---|---|---|
Catcher | Yainer Diaz | Yainer Diaz |
First base | Jose Abreu | Christian Walker |
Second base | Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve |
Shortstop | Jeremy Pena | Jeremy Pena |
Third base | Alex Bregman | Isaac Paredes |
Left field | Chas McCormick | Mauricio Dubon |
Center field | Jake Meyers | Jake Meyers |
Right field | Kyle Tucker | Chas McCormick |
DH | Yordan Alvarez | Yordan Alvarez |
The true likelihood of the Astros' continued dominance in the AL West probably hinges on two men who were not part of the team's 2024 opening day picture.. Mauricio Dubon became an outfield fixture mid-season last year and hit .269 with an insignificant amount of power. Likewise, the Tucker trade returned Isaac Paredes, who busted with the Cubs but is still only 25 and whose pull-heavy approach should play well while taking aim at the Crawford Boxes in left field.
If they click, so do the Astros.
And despite the focus on offense driven by Bregman, Houston’s strength last season was its pitching staff. Here’s statistical evidence: the combined WPA of the 13 most-used position players last season was -0.4 games. The parallel total for the team's eight most-used pitchers was +9.4.
The Astros were seventh in all of MLB in runs allowed per game in 2024, and the young core of that staff — Framber Valdez (31), Hunter Brown (26), Ronel Blanco (31) and Spencer Arrighetti (25) — returns intact. Justin Verlander is gone, but he’s replaced by Luis Garcia (28), who missed most of the last two seasons with arm injuries but who was 26-16 as a full rotation piece in 2021-22.
The core of the bullpen — closer Josh Hader and setup aces Tayler Scott and Bryan Abreu — are back too and should help cover for the loss of Ryan Pressly (also dealt to the Cubs).
The Astros finished seven and a half games over .500 last season. Despite the personnel losses, the data suggests they could collectively be even slightly better in 2025. And after suffering a 2-0 loss to the Detroit Tigers in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, another trip back to the ALCS could be on the table if the team's pitching staff holds down the fort.