What’s Next: Adam Dunn, Aroldis Chapman, Brandon Inge and Jerry Manuel

Welcome to the first post-non waiver trade deadline edition of What’s Next. In weeks past, we’ve been focused on players that could be on the move and while trades can (and will) still happen, the process is different now. For a great primer on how the waiver-trade process works, read Henry Shulman’s piece at the San Francisco Chronicle.

Now that we’re all up to speed on waiver deals, it’s important to note that you shouldn’t be alarmed when your favorite player is waived at some point this month. Nearly every player is placed on waivers in August, most of whom are not going anywhere. Rest assured that if you see that Albert Pujols was placed on waivers by the Cardinals, he will be pulled back when another team makes a claim on him. (more after the jump)

We got word yesterday from Buster Olney (via twitter) that the Washington Nationals have placed slugger Adam Dunn on waivers. As you read in Schulman’s article, that means that every National League team has a shot to claim him before any American League club can do so. If Dunn goes unclaimed, he can be traded to any club, but that won’t happen here.

Dunn will be claimed by at least one NL team, the Giants would certainly claim him, probably the Padres as well. What this means is that there is almost zero chance that Dunn ends up with any of the three AL clubs (White Sox, Yankees, Rays) that were pining over him in July. The Nats could choose to try to work out a trade with the team awarded the claim, or simply pull him back and keep him for the rest of the year.

If the Nats were inclined to deal him, that probably would have happened before the non-waiver deadline, so I’m guessing he’s not going to be traded now, but if he is, it will happen in the next 48 hours.

Players with big contracts, especially ones that run beyond this year, are more likely to go unclaimed given the nature of the process. We saw last year what happens when a big-money guy is waived and a team claims him. Toronto waived Alex Rios in the middle of his $60 million deal. Chicago claimed him and Toronto was only too happy to cut the dead weight from their payroll and let Rios go for nothing.

This is the danger in claiming players to block another club from getting him. The most famous case of this happened with the Padres and Blue Jays (again) back in 1998. The Jays dumped closer Randy Myers on the Friars and San Diego wound up paying him $14 million to throw 17 innings, and not very well.

Rios was almost equally bad last season after heading to the White Sox, but he’s turned his career around this season. Still, even with the relative success Rios has had, the Myers case will prove a cautionary tale for any club that looks to claim simply to block another club. Don’t expect to see a claim made on guys like Randy Wolf or Raul Ibanez. If there is, those clubs might wind up with a bad contract on their hands.

The Cincinnati Reds are getting set to add to their bullpen depth, a real sore spot for the resurgent club. While the back-end has been great all year, Cincinnati’s middle relievers have been very hittable. Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman was the prize of the winter for Reds GM Walt Jocketty but he and his $30 million contract haven’t sniffed the majors this year.

The Reds envision Chapman as a starter (he’d better be for that price), but they’ve shifted him to relief work in AAA to give him a shot to help the big club this year. The Reds have a solid group of starters and they need bullpen arms, so why not use the best arm they have? Chapman struggled in making the transition early, but as Craig Calcaterra points out, he’s been lights-out of late.

Expect the see the big fireballing left hander at Great American Ballpark soon. What a weapon he could be for the Reds as they try to fend off the Cardinals in the Central race.

Meanwhile in Detroit, the Tigers are in free-fall mode. As has been the case in almost every one of Jim Leyland’s five seasons at the helm of the Tigers, Detroit is struggling post-all star break. The Tigers have lost three regulars to injury in the past two weeks and at one point recently had no fewer than nine rookies on the active roster.

Good news came in the form of third baseman Brandon Inge last night as he made his first start of a rehab assignment for West Michigan. Inge (broken hand) played third base for the White Caps and drove the ball well, doubling twice in five at bats. The original time table called for Inge to miss four-to-six weeks, but he’s healed much faster than that and could be activated early next week.

When that happens, and it should coincide with second baseman Carlos Guillen returning from an injury of his own, the Tigers will likely shift newcomer Jhonny Peralta over to shortstop. At seven games behind the White Sox, the season is probably already lost for the Tigers, but the offense should be much improved with Inge and Guillen returning. If they can get a big second half from the veteran guys, especially Peralta, the Tigers might have enough to stay in the race.

Then there are the Mets. New York was recently swept by the lowly Diamondbacks and now sit just one game over .500. Jason Bay is on the disabled list and the pitching staff is a mess. Their recent struggles have caused many to being speculation again that manager Jerry Manuel’s time may soon be up. If that’s the case, the Mets will likely turn to either Bob Melvin or Wally Backman to take over at the helm. Former Met manager Bobby Valentine looms as a candidate to re-join the club as well.

Whether it happen this year or after the season, I can’t foresee a scenario where Manuel is retained. When there is this much smoke, there generally is a fire, or firing, as it were.