Cincinnati Reds Gear Up for a Title Run

Going into this offseason, Reds GM Walt Jocketty and his Baseball Operations staff had two main options. With All-World first baseman Joey Votto just two seasons from free agent eligibility, Jocketty could trade Votto and the team’s other current pieces for young players likely to help more down the road, or hang on to Votto and use the next two years as the team’s potential championship window by buying pieces and building around him.

Votto’s not the only one for whom a salary bump is on the horizon. Ever since star second baseman Brandon Phillips declared there would be no “homeboy hookup” on a possible extension in Cincinnati, it’s been apparent that the team will have a difficult time hanging on to both Votto and Phillips long-term. The team picked up Phillips’ $12.25M option for 2012 and is attempting to work out a deal to keep him around past next season. Since the Reds are going for it in the present, rather than building for the future, I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if those talks break down and Phillips dons a new big-league uniform for the first time since 2005 after this season. The team’s also looking at a big arbitration class for 2013, as young studs such as newly acquired starter Mat Latos and outfielder Drew Stubbs will become eligible and are looking at potentially substantial income increases.

Latos was the team’s first big move of the offseason (other than picking up Phillips’ option), as the team gave up three of its top 10 prospects, plus a chunk of their rotation in Edinson Volquez, to acquire the Padres’ promising pitcher. Latos will slot into the team’s rotation, and the team also hopes to stretch out flamethrowing Aroldis Chapman for use as a starter. Less than a week after acquiring Latos, the team moved young starter Travis Wood to acquire Sean Marshall, the Cubs’ talented set-up man. Marshall’s 5 WAR over the past two seasons leads all relievers, so while the lefty doesn’t have the vaunted “closing experience,” he’s about as good a late-inning guy as there is in the game. Finally, Jocketty took advantage of a rare Scott Boras blunder to pick up Ryan Madson on a well below-market $8.5M deal. Madson’s market disintegrated after news came out that he was going to be signing for 4 years and $44M to return to Philadelphia and assume the closer’s role on a long-term basis, then that deal fell through and the Phillies picked up Jonathan Papelbon. Madson’s other options, for one reason or another, bowed out, as the Marlins had signed Heath Bell earlier in the offseason and the Angels were largely done shopping after their Pujols/CJ Wilson haul at the Winter Meetings. Madson and Boras hope he can put up a strong year in Cincy and land a multiyear deal next offseason. For now, though, a year of Madson at $8.5M is a steal for the Reds.

I’d tend to agree with the Reds’ decision to go for it now, before Votto gets prohibitively expensive and they have to break up the team. Right now, there’s not a standout team in the NL Central, and in my mind the Reds’ offseason has made them the favorite to gain the division’s berth to the great October crapshoot. The Astros were the worst team in baseball last year, and are headed to the NL West anyway. The Cubs are beginning their rebuild under Theo Epstein, and by the time the Reds would be ready to reload and compete the Cubs might be well down the road to contention as well. While the Pirates are still a few pieces away at the Major League level, they have a number of promising prospects on the way, led by 2011 first overall selection Gerrit Cole, and could also challenge for the division title within 3-5 years. Finally, the division’s two playoff teams took huge hits this offseason. The Cardinals may still have a shot to compete, although Albert Pujols will be plying his trade in the City of Angels for the next decade. The team will return Adam Wainwright, who missed all of 2011 after undergoing a Tommy John procedure, and will hope to replace some of Pujols’ offense through the signing of Carlos Beltran and continued development from David Freese, Jon Jay, and the rest of the team’s young core. The team’s also well-positioned for the future, as their minor league system is led by a couple of talented arms in Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez. That said, however, it’s hard to imagine the team losing the best player in baseball and getting better. Finally, the Brewers’ division-winning squad from 2011 will return with a fairly different look next season. Slugging first baseman Prince Fielder will be hitting bombs for some other franchise (although which one remains to be seen) and 2011 NL MVP Ryan Braun will almost certainly miss the first 50 games of the season after he came up positive on a blood test during the playoffs.

Right now, the Cardinals are probably the Reds’ closest competition for the NL Central crown, but several other clubs are rightfully optimistic about their chances over the next few years. For this reason, it makes sense that the Reds were willing to sacrifice a number of valuable future pieces to make a championship run with Votto still in the fold. After adding a stud to the rotation in Latos and finding rare late-inning value in both Marshall and Madson, Jocketty has transformed the 2012 Reds into a legitimate contender.

For all your Reds news, check out Blog Red Machine, and be sure to check back at Call to the Pen later this offseason for our season previews of the Reds and the rest of the league.

Tags: Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds, Joey Votto, NL Central, Walt Jocketty