Shelby Miller: Bounce Back Candidate?

By Jordan Wevers | Feb 17, 2015

Here are some things most followers of baseball know about recently acquired Atlanta Braves pitcher Shelby Miller. He had a breakout season in 2013 as a 22-year old with the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2014, Miller experienced setbacks. In the offseason, the Braves sent Jason Heyward to the Cards for his services. After two full MLB seasons in the books, is Miller a bounce back candidate for 2015, or will his career trajectory trend elsewhere?

Some things baseball followers may not know about Miller is that only Bartolo Colon and Lance Lynn relied more on their fastballs in 2014. Miller offered his fastball 72.3 percent of the time. It had an average velocity of 93.4 mph, down from 93.7 in 2013. Although Miller threw his fastball at nearly the same rate (71.3 percent) that year, opposition batting averages were slightly better against it in 2014 (.237) versus ’13 (.234).

Where Miller struggled was with his secondary pitches. Not something very welcoming for a pitcher who relies so heavily on a fastball. Off-speed mixes are important to keep a batter honest. Though he threw his curveball 19.3 percent of the time in 2014, up from 18.3 in 2013, opponents averages spiked some 44 points to .259.

Miller also relies on a cut fastball and a change-up. In 2013 opponents had an average on-base percentage of .326 against those two servings. Last year that number rose to .350.

The glaring difference between Miller’s 2013 pitch repertoire and his pitches last season is he incorporated a two-seam fastball into his 2014 arsenal. It turned out to actually be his most successful pitch. The wRC+ posted against it was only 73, comparatively to the four-seamer’s 99 or curve’s 114.

More from Atlanta Braves

It appears hitters were more patient on Miller’s four-seam fastball in 2014. Aware of he reliance on it, batters swung 1.5 percent less at it inside and outside of the strike zone last season, but made contact with it at a 3 percent higher rate from 2013. Swinging strike rates versus his four-seamer were also down from 9.9 percent in 2013 to 7.7 last year. It shows in Miller’s overall numbers as well. He pitched 9.2 additional innings in 2014, but struck out 42 less batters.

While analysis shows that Miller’s most active pitch was rendered mildly less effective in 2014 due to lost productivity in off-speed pitches, his overall numbers took a big hit. His ERA rose from 3.06 to 3.74, his FIP from 3.67 to 4.54 and his WPCT dropped from .625 to .526. In 2013, Miller had a 3.4 WAR, which dropped to 1.6 last season.

It’s sometimes typical for starting pitchers to experience sophomore slumps. Their sample size window grows substantially and a scouting report becomes more clear-cut in their second full season. Batter’s pick up on tendencies and become more comfortable at the plate when facing them.

Miller’s new teammate and Braves ace Julio Teheran was an exception to the sophomore slump tag in 2014. He played better in his second full season as a starter and improved his ERA, FIP and HR/9 ratios.

Miller has started only one game at Turner Field in his career, so the sample size on his innings logged there aren’t high enough to foreshadow whether his home outings will spawn success in 2015. Assuming Miller stays with the Braves until free agency, he’ll get two seasons of play at Turner before the clubs planned relocation to a new venue for the 2017 season, SunTrust Park.

Miller is under club control until 2019. Entering his 24-year old season, he’ll need to harness his off-speed pitch efficiency in 2015 more in order to find the success he had with his four-seam fastball in 2013. Perhaps using his two-seamer secondary to all other pitches is a vital component toward this intended success. Given the positive results Shelby Miller had throwing it in 2014, it’s a wonder why he did not rely on it more often.

Next: The National League Central and Fastballs : Part 2

More from Call to the Pen

Home/Atlanta Braves