Bryce Harper: Is He Really This Good?

Anytime someone is drafted first overall, no matter the sport, the pressure on their shoulders is immense. Bryce Harper had that pressure heaped on him by being drafted first overall in the 2010 draft. To make the pressure even more intense, the previous year saw Mike Trout drafted in the first round. There is no debating if Mike Trout is as great as people think: he is.

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But Bryce Harper is a whole different ballgame. Whereas Trout is always a .300, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 30 SB guy, Harper has had a harder time getting started in his Major League career. The young outfielder has never hit .275, he’s never hit over 22 home runs and he’s never reached over 61 RBIs. He also strikes out once every four at-bats.

And yet Bryce Harper is being called the next Mickey Mantle because he’s off to a good start this year. Mickey Mantle never had a problem hitting .300. Mickey Mantle wasn’t striking out in 25% of his at-bats and Mickey Mantle only fell under 65 RBIs at the tail end of his career.

Bryce Harper was arguably the most-hyped player since Ken Griffey Jr. and he’s definitely the most-hyped player since the MLB Draft became such a highly-televised event. But despite the hype, despite the potential on the Washington Nationals, despite the praise being heaped on this kid, his overall value is still up for debate.

At only 22 years old, Bryce Harper still has plenty of time to make what he’s started doing this year a consistent thing. So far this year, Harper is hitting a career-high .284 with 10 home runs, 25 RBIs and a league leading 26 walks. He’s still striking out in 36% of his bats but his other stats help that little one get ignored.

The thing about Bryce Harper’s hammering home run streak is that he’s still only hitting .243 in his past ten games. He’s being called one of the hottest hitters in baseball, but prior to these passed two games where he’s tallied five home runs and ten RBIs, he had one hit in five games. Two games does not make a streak. Five games makes more of a streak than two games (basic law of mathematics).

In fact, this isn’t the first time that Bryce Harper has gotten off to a great start. Let’s look at the 2013 season (via ESPN.com). Bryce Harper began the season with two home runs on opening day. He finished April with a .344 average with 9 home runs and 18 RBIs in 93 at-bats. Pretty great right? He’d follow that up with a May where he hit .193 with 3 home runs and 5 RBIs. Granted it was an injury-plagued May where he only managed 57 at-bats, it’s still a big sample size and Harper proved again that consistency is not his cup of tea.

I understand that players go through streaks. No one hits the same average every month, but at the end of the season, the “greats” are still hitting .300 with the power numbers to boot. At the end of the season, Harper would be thrilled to hit .275.

Until Bryce Harper can hit .300, 30 HR and 100 RBIs and until he can cut down on his strikeouts, he’s not a great player. He’s a good, quality prospect, but greatness is still a pipe dream. If he was a third, fourth round pick, he’d be doing much better than expected, but as an overly-hyped first overall pick, Bryce Harper has not been what was expected.

Again, he’s 22, so he has plenty of time to rise to greatness, but for him to be dubbed “great” because of two hot games is just another shortsighted anointing by the baseball experts. Half of Harper’s excellent 2015 stats have come in two games. Throw out those two games and it’s his worst season in a handful of lackluster seasons.

Bryce Harper is not yet the “Great” Player that Everyone Thinks he Is

By Josh Sippie | May 9, 2015

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