Justin Masterson: Do the Cleveland Indians Know the Secret?

Justin Masterson is a confusing specimen. He was the perennial ace of the Cleveland Indians staff and performed incredibly well for them. Injuries have always been a concern for him and given his elbow-whip of a delivery, it’s easy to see why. And yet, no throwing-arm injuries have ever caused him any serious trouble. It’s always been seemingly-unrelated injuries. His knee is a concern but that was supposedly healed.

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After being rocked in a short stint in St. Louis, Justin Masterson has been inconsistent as ever for the Boston Red Sox as well. Despite putting up two quality starts and three wins, Masterson is the owner of a 6.37 ERA. He’s given up 10 runs in his past 6.2 innings and it’s becoming incredibly apparent that something isn’t right.

While Justin Masterson has shown immeasurable quality in the past, injuries may be the nagging factor that is preventing him from reestablishing his Cleveland form. At least, that’s the Red Sox opinion, as they’ve sent him to the DL, this time for arm fatigue (according to NESN).

The signs all point to injuries being the bane of Justin Masterson’s post-Cleveland career. When with the Tribe, Justin Masterson was regularly posting velocities in the 90s, but in his recent seasons, he has barely been able to stay in the upper 80s. A drop in the velocity is one of the main signs of something not being quite right. Another major sign is a lack of control, something that Masterson is also struggling through. His chase-rate is currently resting at a career low of 26%. Also, since leaving Cleveland, Master has yet to throw 100 pitches in a game.

But even considering the injuries, it’s hard to really get a beat on Justin Masterson. His two best years were in 2011 and 2013. They were similar in ERA and WHIP but in very little else. Let’s take a look at the two seasons side-by-side:

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As you can see, while ERA and control were his greatest allies in 2011, Masterson become much more dominant in 2013 at the expense of less control but also less hits. These aren’t just minor alterations in numbers, these are major differences. 2013 was also his first all-star season.

What’s even more baffling is his sandwiched season of 2012, where he saw more hits than both good seasons, an increase in strikeouts but decrease in walks from 2011, the most wild pitches he’s ever thrown and an inflated 4.93 ERA.

Again, the easiest answer is to inspect his injury record. In 2011, Masterson ended the season with surgery to a torn labrum on his non-throwing shoulder and was good to go for the 2012 season with no noted injuries to anything that would affect his pitching form. And yet 2012 clearly shows adverse affects. The most baffling thing about the 2012 season is that Justin Masterson recorded his best career game score (88) and his second worst game score (12) in that year (based on baseball reference)

When he was traded to the Cardinals in 2014, he had been on the DL with a knee problem, so we can brush off his awful form in St. Louis. Having an injury and needing to be rushed back to help a playoff bound team clearly isn’t an enviable situation to be in.

Trying to find any sort of link between Justin Masterson’s current form and either one of his two most successful seasons proves even more frustrating. His walks and home runs surrendered are skyrocketing from his good form and his hits are as well. The only similarity we can find is a strikeout rate not too far worse than his 2011 breakout year, but such a small similarity leaves for little clues.

The one factor that we can draw some knowledge from is WHIP. In 2011 and 2013, Masterson’s WHIP was around 1.2. In no other season (excluding his rookie season) has it even dipped below 1.3. Since leaving Cleveland, it hasn’t gone below 1.55. Clearly Cleveland knows the secret and they’re probably not to keen on sharing it.

The knee injury can explain his recent woes, while the quality starts and brief glimpses of his old self remind us that Justin Masterson is still a really good pitcher. What’s frustrating is that the good form he’s had this year is wedged in between abysmal form. His first two starts saw him decimated to the tune of 10 ER in 6.2 innings, as well as 7 walks and just two strikeouts.

Will the Boston Red Sox Ever Figure Out Justin Masterson’s Cleveland Secret?

By Josh Sippie | May 14, 2015

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