Minnesota Twins Target Future Success
By Mike Honcho
The Minnesota Twins may be one of the worst teams in baseball right now, but they also have plenty of reasons to believe in their future.
Coming off an 83-79 finish in 2015 and missing out on a Wild Card spot by just three games, there was a sense of promise and hope that the Minnesota Twins could contend for the American League Central title this season.
Then, April happened. They opened up the season with nine straight losses and would ultimately lose 11 of their first 15 games. To make matters worse, the ultra-talented, home-grown players that were supposed to be the difference makers in 2016 proved to be a work in progress. That was enough to send the excitement of the new season cascading into a free fall, just as the Twins were doing in the loss column.
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But have no fear, not all is lost in the Land of Lakes. If there was ever a reason to be optimistic about a last place team through one-quarter of the season, well… the Twins have you covered. The optimism begins right where the disconnect of 2016 sits. If you’re confused, allow me to explain.
Their minor league system is rich with young, star-studded talent and with some additional time and seasoning, it could bring the kind of excitement the Twin Cities were accustomed to in 1991. Baseball Prospectus has the Twins minor league system ranked seventh in all of baseball and truth be told, that might be a spot or two too low. That’s an argument for another day, as we’re here to take a look at some of the key contributors in the Minnesota prospect pipeline.
With that said, let’s take a moment and examine the future of the Twins organization:
Buxton began the season as Minnesota’s starting center fielder, but contact woes quickly derailed what was supposed to be the start of something very special. Through 17 games, Buxton produced a line of .156/.208/.258 with just two RBIs and five runs scored.
His demotion was a necessary move and through 83 at-bats at Rochester it looks to be paying off. The speedy center fielder is slashing .313/.368/.513 with three home runs and two steals. He’s also demonstrated improved plate discipline as he’s drawn seven walks over that same period. Since there’s no pennant chase in sight this year, Minnesota will be in no rush to return him to Target Field and his arrival date will probably be well after the All-Star break.
There’s no sugar-coating this situation. Berrios was bad in his brief stay with the Twins and by bad I mean hideously grotesque. The 22-year-old right-hander pitched to a 10.20 ERA and 2.13 WHIP and if that’s not depressing enough, his 7.20 FIP should seal the deal.
The thing is, he’s actually not that bad. Not even close. This was mostly a command problem and once he corrects that flaw he’ll be a major force in the Minnesota rotation. One positive note from his time in the bigs: Berrios produced an elite 12.00 K/9 rate through 15 innings. While he’s not the most physically intimidating guy on the block, it’s fair to expect Berrios to settle into a No. 2 starter role as he gains experience. He possesses a top-tier three pitch arsenal and his fastball sits at 94 MPH. That’s certainly good enough to get it done at the highest level.
Gordon was the fifth overall pick in the 2014 amateur draft. He stands at 6′ 2″ and has plenty of frame to pack on some serious muscle. His baseball instincts, athleticism and elite speed should enable him to be a top of the order hitter and upper echelon shortstop at the major league level in just a few short years.
Minnesota fans can expect a big, strong corner outfielder with 20+ home run power when Kepler finally gets more than a cup of coffee with the parent club. He’s also exceptionally quick for a player of his stature and has the potential to steal 20 bases at the major league level as well. Kepler might be the most underrated player in the system, simply due to the fact that 20/20 type of players are just not readily available in most organizations.
Left-handed power pitchers are a rare gem in most minor league systems, but the Twins have a keeper in Jay. The only issue here is whether or not he can pan out as an every-fifth-day kind of pitcher. He might be better suited for the bullpen, but either way he’ll be a big part as to why the Twins will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.
Now that we’ve covered the younger players, Twins fans should take a step back from the ledge and reassess their team’s outlook. There’s more to this story though and if you follow this team relatively closely, it’s easy to see that a solid core of rising big league players already exist in Minneapolis.
The young talent already at the major league level is providing a foundation for the future and they’re doing it by following the blueprint of General Manager Terry Ryan and manager Paul Molitor. In addition to the Twins sticking to their process, the reality in the AL Central is this: Kansas City is not getting any younger. In fact, they only have two starters in the field that were under the age of 30 on Opening Day. The Royals’ window for titles is rapidly closing. I consider the White Sox and Indians to be within arm’s reach of the Twins moving forward after 2016 and the Tigers are simply past their expiration date as we speak.
Taking a closer look at what’s on the field for the Twins should bring a smile to any Minnesotan’s face even on the coldest of days. Miguel Sano burst on the scene in 2015 and staked his claim to one of the most powerful bats in all of baseball. His raw power is so impressive that he can be placed into the Giancarlo Stanton tier of mashers.
Sure, Sano had his swing-and-miss issues in 2015 (he played to a 35.5% strikeout rate) but his walk rate of 15.8% is certainly impressive for a free swinger.
Danny Santana struggled as an everyday shortstop over the last few seasons, but seems to be comfortable these days patrolling the spacious gaps of Target Field. He brings solid defense, some surprising speed and a major league approach to every at-bat. He’ll hold down the fort in center field until Buxton is ready to return.
He may be 29, but Byung-ho Park brings an elite power bat to first base, something the Twins haven’t seen since the MVP days of Justin Morneau. Park has nine home runs in 132 plate appearances and his .543 slugging percentage and .302 isolated power percentage rank in the top-20 and top-10 respectively in all of baseball.
Brian Dozier, also in his age-29 season has been the rock of the Twins offense over the past three seasons. Over that same period, Dozier ranks second in home runs (73), sixth in RBI (228) and third in walks (216). He’s clearly producing at an elite level for a second baseman and he’s still well into his prime production years.
The pieces are in place for Minnesota to be a force in the AL Central for years to come. Baseball is a fickle game. It rewards patience and consistency and to achieve both an organization needs to adhere to the rules of the process. The process can be defined as drafting well, making necessary trades (Aaron Hicks for John Ryan Murphy) and striking it big with international signings, as they did with Park.
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Twins fans are a passionate bunch who thirst for the days of a deafening Metrodome and they certainly deserve to see another Commissioner’s Trophy come to rest in Minneapolis. With the right mix of maturing minor league talent and some strategic starting pitching moves, Minnesota can once again hold out hope for brighter days in the North.