Washington Nationals: Is it Time to Worry About Strasburg?

In Stephen Strasburg‘s last three starts for the Washington Nationals he has given up 11 runs in 16 innings pitched while posting a 1.44 WHIP and .273 average against. Should the Nationals be worried about him?

Stephen Strasburg leads the National League in wins with 15. Strasburg also has a 3.07 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while striking out 30.8% of the batters he’s faced. On a Washington Nationals staff with Max Scherzer and surprise 2016 stud Tanner Roark, it seems like Strasburg would fade into the norm. Instead, Strasburg has grabbed the bull by the horns and established himself as one of the best pitchers in the National League, and arguably the ace of his team’s staff.

And yet, we are left asking if the Nationals should be worried about Strasburg. The main reason, and perhaps only reason, behind the possible worry is that Strasburg has suddenly pitched very poorly in his recent starts. Strasburg’s struggles with injuries throughout his career certainly make it easier to get concerned over the smallest things. Strasburg had Tommy John surgery following his first Major League Season in 2010, and missed time in 2013 due to a shoulder injury and bone chips in his elbow. 

More from Washington Nationals

• MLB trade deadline: Nationals and Mets for sale, plus wish lists for Phillies, Braves, Marlins
• MLB trade talk: 5 contending teams who should trade for Nationals 3B Jeimer Candelario
• Mike Rizzo and the Washington Nationals front office: A mid-season grade
• Washington Nationals: Jeimer Candelario is having a resurgent season
• Braves, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Phillies: The good, bad and injured in the NL East

The good news is that there doesn’t appear to be any huge decrease in velocity, which is often considered a warning sign of injury. In fact, his fastball velocity in his last three starts is sitting right about average for the season according to Brooks Baseball. While it is great news that Strasburg likely isn’t fighting an injury, it does leave even more uncertainty around why he has struggled so much recently. What could possibly cause a pitcher who seemed to be cruising through the league to suddenly get beat up so horribly?

The answer is that a lot of things could happen. One simple explanation is simply that every player goes through slumps, even pitchers. The length and severity of a slump varies from player to player and slump to slump. For now, we can’t predict how long Strasburg’s slump will last. As for the severity of the slump, the Washington Nationals surely hope that giving up 7 runs in the first inning and another 2 in the next inning (granted, it was in Colorado) is the worst it will get for the young ace.

Predictive statistics can be finicky, and many people smarter than I have criticized the fault in those statistics. For our sake today, I’m going to use DRA, which was developed by a couple of Baseball Prospectus employees (for the nerdy, statistics information go here). Essentially, DRA attempts to predict how many runs a certain pitcher should have given up in the past and will give up in the future. DRA, like ERA, is based on a 9 inning rate, so it’s very easy to make a comparison between the two. ERA is what did happen, while DRA is what should have happened. 

More from Call to the Pen

• Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
• Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
• Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
• Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
• 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals

Stephen Strasburg’s DRA is 2.85 and his ERA is 3.59. What does this tell us? Well, on a very basic level, it tells us that Stephen Strasburg has been pitching better than his ERA appears to say. In the same basic way, it should mean that Strasburg will get better as the season winds to an end.

The Nationals should in no way be concerned about Strasburg’s recent performances. He had a couple shaky starts followed by a beatdown in what many consider the best hitter’s ballpark in the league. His underlying numbers suggest that he is pitching even better than his very good 3.59 ERA. As long as Strasburg continues to strike out batters, maintain velocity, and limit his number of poor outings, there is absolutely no worry at all.

Next: Yankees' Catcher of the Future

Stephen Strasburg has been a polarizing player since he was drafted by the Washington Nationals with the number one overall draft pick in 2009. From the heavy scrutinization over his injury at the end of the 2010 season to the Nationals decision to sit him in 2012, there has always been a lot of attention around Strasburg. Because of this, every single blip in his season is magnified and given plenty of hyperbole. Strasburg has struggled in his recent starts, but he remains one of the top pitchers in the National League and a great mate at the top of the Washington Nationals rotation with Max Scherzer.