MLB: Could AL East lose grip on both Wild Card spots?

As the MLB postseason races tighten, AL East teams are facing renewed competition for the league’s two Wild Card berths.

One of the quirks of MLB’s current playoff system is that both Wild Card spots in each league can go to teams in the same division. As a result, as many as three teams within one division can actually make the postseason. For much of the 2016 campaign, it appeared as if the AL East was going to take full advantage of that potentiality, with the Red Sox, Orioles and Blue Jays all gunning for October baseball. But as a couple of those clubs stall and the ones behind them in the standings catch fire, that might not be such a foregone conclusion anymore.

The Jays currently sit atop the division on the strength of a four-game winning streak. The Red Sox are two games behind them, and the O’s are still very much within striking distance at a four-game deficit. While all three of these squads are certainly hoping to claim the division crown, the two Wild Card berths have been a safety net at the back of their minds. That safety net is looking like far less of a sure thing, however, and the AL East could lose its hold on both extra postseason spots.

The shift in the playoff race has had less to do with the AL East teams performing poorly and more with the other contenders getting hot at the right moment. The Orioles and Red Sox have been playing around .500 ball of late, Boston winning five of its last ten and Baltimore taking four of ten. The teams chasing them have made the most of the opportunity.

The Detroit Tigers have won six of their last ten and are just one game behind the O’s for the second Wild Card. (The Red Sox, meanwhile, have a two-game buffer in the top WC position.) The Royals and Astros have been on even more of a roll, each winning eight of their last ten to move to within two of Baltimore. The Mariners are three behind, and they would be even closer if they had won more than three of their last ten contests.

How worried should the AL East teams be about losing their grip on the American League playoff landscape? With just over a month still to play in the regular season, it’s too early to make any bold declarations. The race will likely continue to fluctuate. That said, the Orioles in particular have some red flags to consider down the stretch.

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This year’s O’s were always going to be an offense-first team. You can slug yourself to a lot of victories with the kind of firepower they have in their lineup. But it’s difficult to maintain that recipe for success throughout an entire season, as they have discovered this month. The Baltimore bats have done their job in August, posting a .769 OPS along with 51 homers and 124 runs scored.

The pitching, however, has been a different story. Orioles hurlers have put up a 5.43 ERA this month. Losing their best starter, Chris Tillman, to the disabled list last week won’t help matters either. It all translates to a lackluster 12-15 record in August with two games left to go in the month.

The Red Sox were another club for whom pitching was a prominent weakness in the early going. Their staff has really turned things around lately, though. Boston pitchers have managed a 3.59 ERA in August, easily their best month this season. Improved results from David Price and the increasingly stellar form of Rick Porcello (who has an MLB-leading 18 wins, by the way) have had a lot to do with that.

The Sox have gone 16-12 so far this month, and with a formidable lineup of their own added to the mix, you would have to like their chances of clinching a postseason berth in one form or another. If they overtake Toronto at the top of the division, the Jays would also be in a similarly good position to reach October.

Of course, if things turn sour at the top, the AL East has its own dark horse of sorts waiting in the wings. Despite losing their last two, the Yankees are still a manageable 3.5 games out of the second WC spot. Their playoff chances will likely ride on their starting pitching and whether or not rookie Gary Sanchez can maintain his astonishing pace at the plate, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

MLB instituted the new postseason format four years ago in an attempt to make playoff races more exciting by involving a greater number of teams. You can debate whether the old system was preferable, but this year’s AL playoff picture is a clear illustration of what the league was hoping for, with seven clubs within reasonable reach of a Wild Card berth.

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The AL East still has the chance to claim both Wild Cards and send three teams to the postseason, but they are going to be in for a fight. And the challengers in Detroit, Kansas City and Houston are talented squads in their own rights.