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Seattle Mariners: Are They Contenders?

By Bobby Mueller

Aug 18, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of a Seattle Mariners ball cap and glove during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Mariners defeat the Rangers 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 18, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of a Seattle Mariners ball cap and glove during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Mariners defeat the Rangers 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 2, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 2, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports /

After being in the wild card race right down to the last week of the 2016 season, will the Seattle Mariners be legitimate contenders in 2017?

The Seattle Mariners haven’t been to the playoffs since 2001, but are coming off a season in which they were in contention in the final week of the season. They also have a general manager who is more than willing to make moves to try to improve the team. Jerry Dipoto took over as Mariners GM in September 2015 and has made 34 trades since then, the most in baseball. The Atlanta Braves’ 25 trades are second-most during that time.

Recently, the Mariners made two separate trades that essentially swapped platoon outfielder Seth Smith for platoon outfielder Jarrod Dyson and pitcher Nate Karns for pitcher Yovani Gallardo. After the trades Dipoto said, “We feel we have five legitimate center fielders” in Dyson, Leonys Martin, Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel, and Guillermo Heredia. He also explained the acquisition of Gallardo, a pitcher with a declining fastball who had a 5.42 ERA in an injury-shortened season last year.

So, as the team is currently constructed, are the Seattle Mariners contenders in 2017? With the caveat that much can happen between now and Opening Day, the American League appears to have two co-favorites on the top tier in Boston and Cleveland, with the Astros right below them. As it happens, those three teams are in separate divisions. I would say they are the favorites to win the AL East, Central, and West, respectively.

This puts the Mariners in with a mix of teams vying for the two wild card spots. FanGraphs has the American League projected like this (as of January 7):

93-69 Red Sox

91-71 Indians

90-72 Astros

84-78 Angels

83-79 Yankees

83-79 Tigers

82-80 Mariners

82-80 Rangers

82-80 Blue Jays

82-80 Rays

78-84 Royals

78-84 Athletics

78-84 Orioles

75-87 Twins

71-91 White Sox

You can quibble with the specifics. I’m sure most people would not expect the Los Angeles Angels to be the fourth-best team in the AL and the Orioles and Royals have done better than expected in recent years. Some teams haven’t finished their off-season moves, but with Dipoto at the helm the Mariners are probably still looking to make moves. In general, though, the Mariners look to be in the mix.

On the following slides are the main players expected to play each position with the combined projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for that position, according to FanGraphs. As a reminder, this is a guide to WAR:

0-1 WAR: Scrub

0-2 WAR: Role player

2-3 WAR: Solid Starter (2 WAR is league average)

3-4 WAR: Good Player

4-5 WAR: All-Star

5-6 WAR: Superstar

6+ WAR: MVP

Let’s take a look at the Mariners hitting, starting pitching, and relief pitching.

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