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Seattle Mariners: Are They Contenders?

By Bobby Mueller

Aug 18, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of a Seattle Mariners ball cap and glove during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Mariners defeat the Rangers 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 18, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; A view of a Seattle Mariners ball cap and glove during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Mariners defeat the Rangers 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /
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Jul 10, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Seattle Mariners third basemen
Jul 10, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Seattle Mariners third basemen /

 

Catcher—3.0 WAR

Mike Zunino—2.1 WAR (416 PA)

Carlos Ruiz—0.8 WAR (192 PA)

Mike Zunino is coming off the best stretch of hitting he’s had in his four years in the big leagues, but it came in a 55-game sample. He spent the first 3 ½ months of the season in Triple-A, where he made big improvements in his strikeout rate, which has been his biggest problem as a hitter. When he came up to the major leagues in July, he started off well but got progressively worse:

.241/.353/.655, 20.6% strikeout rate—July (34 PA)

.212/.346/.515, 33.3% strikeout rate—August (81 PA)

.188/.273/.348, 40.3% strikeout rate—September/October (77 PA)

The biggest concern is that Zunino struck out at a higher rate each month he was in the major leagues last year. The improvement he showed in the beginning of the year seemed to disappear. He’s projected to hit .220/.289/.412 with a strikeout rate of 29.2%. That would be worse than he hit in his 55-game sample last year but an improvement on his career line. At 26 years old, that’s not out of the question, but there’s no guarantee he’s solved his strikeout problems either. The back up is 38-year-old Carlos Ruiz, who can still get on base at a good clip but doesn’t hit for much power. At his age, the Mariners wouldn’t want to have to use him too much. They are really hoping Zunino can seize the job for good.

First Base—1.0 WAR

Danny Valencia—0.5 WAR (455 PA)

Dan Vogelbach—0.5 WAR (231 PA)

As of right now, first base looks like the biggest weakness for the offense. Vogelbach was acquired in a trade for Mike Montgomery last season and has hit well in Triple-A. He’s projected to be solid at getting on base but without much power. He also hasn’t proven he can hit lefties. Valencia has a bit more power but worst on base abilities. He’s a lefty-masher who may end up getting too many at-bats against right-handed pitchers (career .288 OBP versus righties).

Second Base—3.7 WAR

Robinson Cano—3.7 WAR (630 PA) 

Cano has been with the Mariners for three seasons and has averaged 4.4 WAR per year, so that projection might be a bit low. His 2.1 WAR in 2015 was his worst season since 2008. He played that year with a stomach issue that likely affected him more than he was willing to admit. He had double hernia surgery after the season. He will be 34 years old, though, and players aren’t aging as well as they used to. I’d expect around 4-5 WAR in 2017, a slight bump from the projections.

Shortstop—2.2 WAR

Jean Segura—2.1 WAR (623 PA)

Segura was good in 2013 (.294/.329/.423), then had two seasons in which he was right around replacement-level. He busted out last year with the Diamondbacks when he hit .319/.368/.499 and had a career-high 20 homers (5.0 WAR). The Mariners acquired Segura, Mitch Haniger, and Zac Curtis in a trade for Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte in November. Segura has the ability to be better than his projection, but those two ugly years in 2014 and 2015 and a .353 Batting Average on Balls In Play in 2016 suggest he won’t repeat last season. That .353 BABIP last year was .041 higher than his career mark. An optimistic Mariner fan can see upside on his 2.1 WAR projection, maybe in the 3-4 WAR range.

Third Base—4.0 WAR

Kyle Seager—3.9 WAR (630 PA) 

Seager has had five strong seasons in a row and looks to keep the streak going. He’s about as consistent as they come. Last year was the best season of his career, as he set career-highs in numerous categories. He’s rock solid.

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