2011 SAL All-Stars: OF Bryce Harper

The South Atlantic League at the Low-A level features some exciting prospects and players who could be big league superstars within a few years. No one is a better example of that than Bryce Harper, the third outfielder at Seedlings to Stars’ 2011 South Atlantic League All-Star team.

Name: Bryce Harper 
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 225
Bats: L
Throws: R
Age: 19
2011 Teams: Hagerstown Suns (SAL- WAS), Harrisburg Senators (Double-A Eastern League- WAS)
Basic Batting Stats: .318/.423/.554, 17 doubles, 14 homers, 46 RBI, 19 stolen bases (5 CS) in 72 games for Hagerstown, .256/.329/.395, 7 doubles, 3 homers, 12 RBI, 7 stolen bases (2 CS) in 37 games for Harrisburg
Fielding Stats: 51 games in right field, .970 Fld%, 4 outfield assists, 20 games in centerfield, .943 Fld%, 2 outfield assists, 37 games in left field, .955 Fld%, 7 assists. Overall 108 games in the outfield, .961 Fld%, 13 outfield assists

Harper is too good to need an introduction.

General Thoughts:

We all now how incredible a prospect Harper is, but if it’s slipping your mind, please see Nathaniel’s Top 100 post on him here. Harper is an unbelievable prospect an even though he played just 72 games in the Sally League, there was no way to keep him off this list. He showcased his 5-tool potential, hitting for a high average that might have actually been too low, with nice power, speed, and although he wasn’t quite sure-handed defensively, we saw him make great plays with both his glove and arm. Harper posted an incredible 25.1% line drive percentage among his batted balls according to Minor League Central, and he was extremely efficient with his flyballs, hitting 89.7% of them to the outfield compared to the league average of 80.2%, leading to his outstanding power without costing him points on his batting average. He struck out in just 19.9% of his plate appearances compared to the league average of 2o.1%, which is outstanding for a power hitter, while walking unintentionally in a ridiculous 12.3% of his plate appearances compared to the league average of 8.3%. He was also an extremely efficient basestealer, being successful on 79.2% of his 24 attempts. Bottom line, Harper played like a much older player and dominated the competition. But what about his performance in the Double-A Eastern League for the Harrisburg Senators?

Harper was by no means overmatched once he moved up to Double-A, but he basically became a league average player. His .724 OPS was just above the league OPS of .722 and his ISO was just .139 compared to the league ISO of .134. How did that happen? Harper’s batted ball tendencies were pretty pedestrian. His 15.1% line drive percentage was a far cry from his incredible mark in the Sally League and was even below the league average of 15.8%. He hit too many groundballs, 45.3% of his batted balls compared to the league average of 42.1%, and he was unable to take advantage of his great power because flyballs were just 35.9% of his batted balls compared to the league average of 38.1%, although just 15.9% of those flyballs were pop-ups compared to the league average of 19.9%. But what was strange about Harper’s relative struggles was his strikeout and walk rates. Harper actually struck out significantly less than he did at Hagerstown, 17.7% of his plate appearances compared to the league average of 19.9%, and even though his unintentional walk rate dropped, it still came in at at 10.2% of his PA’s compared to the league average of 8.2%. Even stranger was Harper’s contact rate. At Hagerstown, he was just below the Sally League average, making contact on 57.9% of his swings. But once he arrived in Harrisburg, that mark jumped to 70.0%, decently above the league average of 66.6%! That was pretty bizarre, but also very easy to explain in the context of Harper’s time at Harrisburg. Contrary to popular belief, Bryce Harper can get nervous. Once he was called up to Double-A, Harper started pressing a little bit. Every pitch he was thinking about hitting the type of home runs that will help him live up to the lofty expectations that had been set for him. Whenever he saw he pitch that could be the pitch that he could drive 500 feet into the stands, Harper swung and swung hard, but while his incredible hand-eye coordination helped Harper make contact on 7/10 of his swings, it prevented him from hitting the ball anywhere near as hard, leading to more groundballs and fewer line drives and extra-base hits. But Harper will be completely fine. After the Nationals sent him to the Arizona Fall League, Harper played as well as ever, posting a .333/.400/.634 line with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 6 homers, 26 RBI, and 4 stolen bases in 25 games. He was able to overcome his temporary timorousness and get right back to being the great player we all know he is.

Moving Forward:

Bryce Harper is on track to be a big league superstar. His temporary struggles in 2011 have no bearing on his future. Nationals fans have a lot to look forward to.

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