Overcoming biases in predicting NL Rookie of the Year voting

Indulge me if you will: .295/.329/.282/.288/.292/.324/.285/.321/.305/.270. Those are the respective batting averages of every position player who won NL Rookie of the Year dating back to 2000. The last number in that chain represents Bryce Harper. He is the only player on the list to have hit lower than .280. In fact, of the last five position player’s to win AL ROY, only two — Wil Myers in ’13 (.293) and Evan Longoria in ’08 (.272) — hit below .300.

In Longoria’s case, the award was justified in 2008. He hit six more home runs and drove in eight more runners than second leading vote getter Alexei Ramirez. Longoria also posted an OPS of .874 compared to Ramirez’s .792 and a WAR of 4.8 to his 1.5, all while playing in 14 fewer games.

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In 2012, however, they hype surrounding Harper in the NL seemed to saturate an overtly biased approach to voting. Two players, the Reds’ Todd Frazier and the Rockies’ Wilin Rosario, both finished with higher OPS numbers. Rosario hit six more home runs than Harper and posted 12 more RBI than him despite registering 137 fewer at-bats. Frazier finished with only three fewer home runs and actually drove in eight more base runners than did Harper, doing so with 111 less at-bats.

Where Harper separated himself was his base running abilities. He scored 98 runs and stole 18 bases in 2012. This led to his WAR of 5.1 being higher than the combined totals of both Frazier and Rosario. It was in fact the highest WAR by a rookie position player in the NL to win the award since Albert Pujols posted a 6.6 in 2001.

So while that may help clear the air of any biases, they re-emerge somewhat again when one looks at other aspects of the voting in 2012. The Brewers’ Nori Aoki finished behind Frazier and Rosario, despite posting the second highest WAR to Harper at 3.4. Aoki also displayed excellent on-base skills with the highest BA (.288) and OBP (.355) of all four hitters mentioned. His base running skills (81 R, 30 SB) were also overlooked, as was his consistency and durability, having played in 151 games as a rookie. Even defensively, Aoki (.988 FPT, 3 Rtot) was on par with Harper (.979 FPCT, 9 Rtot). Where Aoki probably lost most credibility with voters was in his age. He was 30 in his rookie MLB season and Harper was of course, a phenom at only age 19.

Setting aside biases is a difficult thing to do in subjective voting processes. In the AL this year, the names are less intriguing. Unless of course you’re a Toronto Blue Jays fan. Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris and Dalton Pompey are all names being thrown around. Perhaps add the Angels’ Andrew Heaney and the Red Sox’s 27-year old Rusney Castillo to the mix. It seems a somewhat diluted affair. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo even thinks Twins RHP Alex Meyer even has a shot.

Mar 16, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant (76) bats against the San Diego Padres at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

I think to most baseball fans, the NL ROY race is the affair to watch. The Cubs have a few candidates, but none holds more promise than 3B Kris Bryant who has nine home runs in spring and swatted 43 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2014. Steamer projections put him at a .260-24-62 line in 2015. But he can’t run, and his defense is terrible with a career .942 FPCT in 160 minor league games.

Bryant has been getting reps in the outfield this spring, but would clearly be a liability out there in games that count. He also has to prove his bat and glove are worth playing over 3B Mike Olt in 2015. Olt’s glove also leaves something to be desired at the hot corner, but he’s slashing .286/.400/.571 this spring with three home runs and has 105 big league games under his belt already.

Alas, despite the endless expectations surrounding a number of Cubs prospects and Bryant’s huge power potential, this years best bet to win NL ROY is non other than the Dodgers’ Joc Pederson. There, I said it. And it felt good. This kid is for real. If he wasn’t, the Dodgers would not have parted with Matt Kemp so willingly.

What Pederson brings to the table is all-around competencies. He is a lock to start in center field on Opening Day. He is a five-tool player, something Bryant is not. His .977 career minor league FPCT, most of those innings being played in center, will show voters his bat is not a trade off for his glove as would be the case with Bryant. And his bat, along with his legs, look like they can be spectacular.

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In 1934 Frank Demaree accomplished the feat of a 30-30 season in the Pacific Coast League. It took him 186 games played to do so. Last year, Pederson reached 30-30 status for the first time in the same league since Demaree and he did it in only 115 games. His final line in a full season at Triple-A in 2014 with the Albuquerque Isotopes was .303/.435/.582-106-33-78-30. Oh yeah, he’s also presently slashing .389/.421/.796 in spring training and currently has the second highest OPS amongst any player with over 50 at-bats. His six home runs have him only three back of Bryant.

If 2012 showed onlookers anything, Harper’s hype and base running skilled helped catapult him to NL ROY status. True, Bryant’s preseason hype far surpasses Pederson’s. But of the two player’s, only one has a guaranteed everyday job for Opening Day. My guess is consistency will reign supreme over sporadic power in the voter’s minds as well.

If any rookie eligible player in the NL has the potential to score 80-plus runs, approach 20-20 status and hit around .280, it will be the Dodgers’ Joc Pederson — health prevailing, of course. Bryant’s dWAR will drastically lower his overall WAR, making it even more likely Pederson can take home the hardware in 2015.

Next: The Chicago Cubs vs Kris Bryant