Aging closer already an issue for Seattle Mariners
Like another early favorite to capture an American League playoff seed, the Seattle Mariners are also faced with handing the ball over to an aging, digressing pitcher in the ninth inning of ball games. The other team, of course, was the Detroit Tigers and closer Joe Nathan. Until Nathan’s landing on the disabled list allowed Joakim Soria to take over the job, in ways a blessing in disguise some might say.
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Like Nathan, M’s closer Fernando Rodney also appears to be in the twilight of his career. Nathan is 40 and Rodney just turned 38 last month and is set to be a free agent after this season. There was a time when Nathan relied heavily on his fastball. That time was well before the 2013 season when it averaged in between 92 and 95 mph. In 2013, there was a shift, and Nathan threw his slider only 45 fewer times than his fastball, which was now traveling to home plate at an average speed of 92.3 mph.
2014 was worse, as it dropped to an average speed of 91.7 mph. Nathan threw it only 72 more times than he did his slider that year. His ERA spiked over three full points from 2013-14.
When Rodney had his prolific season with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2012 where he saved 48 games and posted an unfathomable 0.60 ERA over 72.4 IP, his four-seam fastball averaged 96.2 mph and he threw it 361 times. Rodney’s dilemma is that his best pitch is probably his off-speed changeup, which is responsible for 34.9 percent of his career strikeouts. But when your average four-seam fastball drops from 96.2 to 94.6 mph where it sits now, it can be problematic.
Not to you or I or the blow hard in your local co-ed softball league, but to the trained eye of a Major League hitter, they now become more empowered with throwing a wrench in Rodney’s plans. Rodney threw his changeup more than any other pitch in 2012 and his four-seamer thereafter. But in 2013 and 2014, his two-seam fastball became his primary offering.
The same can be said for 2015. Rodney has thrown his two-seamer 35 times, his changeup 11 times and his four-seamer only three times. The rub is, the only pitch Rodney has recorded a strikeout throwing is his four-seamer. That’s a big issue for a closer. Even more so when opponents are hitting his two-seamer at a .333 clip and his changeup at .500.
Rodney’s changeup used to be the one getting him out of jams. Now, it’s his 50/50 pitch. Guys could potentially hit it hard, or they could not swing at all and wait for one of his two fastballs to hit or a free base on. But they aren’t getting punched out on the changeup — not yet.
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Whether or not the Mariners want to wait around and see if that happens remains to be seen. Rodney’s sample size still might be a bit too small for the club to panic and make a change with the same swiftness of manager John Gibbons did in Toronto when he swapped out Brett Cecil for Miguel Castro. But Rodney was atrocious on Tuesday night versus the Dodgers, the same as he was on April 12 versus the Athletics.
Rodney has only one strikeout this season in four appearances. His ERA sits at 16.2 and his ugly 3.30 WHIP shows that hitters are having few issues reaching base on him. After recording a clean save on Opening Day, he did so again four days later. Then on zero days rest, Rodney blew up against the Dodgers and did so again last night on only one day of rest. At 38, Rodney might be an effective closer if he has ample time to re-energize his right arm. If he has a day or less of rest, he’s going to be a ticking time bomb.
No team feels confident moving to a closer-by-committee format. The fans don’t like it and fantasy baseball managers sure as heck can’t stomach it either. Presently, the Seattle Mariners find themselves in a three-way tie for last place in the AL West. They also share a negative 13 run differential with the other two teams, the Astros and Rangers.
Fernando Rodney is directly responsible for six of those runs lost. If he does not turn things around, the M’s will have to make a change. Ball clubs that cannot win tight matchups and close out games will become irrelevant in September. This could turn into a year devoid of the bow and arrow routine in Seattle.
Next: Few surprises with Detroit Tigers current offensive pace