MLB Awards Watch: Top 5 NL Cy Young candidates thru April
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Clayton Kershaw has not been his usual Claw-like self in 2015. He has a losing record at 1-2, is toying with an ERA in the 4.0 range (3.73) after five starts and a BAA of .267 this season.
Last year, he spent much of April on the disabled list but then burst ahead of all other National League pitching contenders for the award with an incredible 27 start season that saw him produce a WAR of 7.5, missing a pitching Triple Crown by only four strikeouts and netting himself an NL MVP to go on the mantle with his three Cy Young awards.
While a few of Kershaw’s numbers are askew, he is still striking hitters out at an incredible pace. His 43 punch outs in only 31.1 innings of work equates to a K/9 of 12.35, the best for any NL starter with at least 20 innings logged.
While the best southpaw the league has to offer might be mildly on the outside looking in for a repeat of the award this season, he is still very much in the conversation with five months of baseball left to be played. But right now, Kershaw’s high ERA and lack of wins provide him only with honorable mention.
Once summer rolls around, so too should Kershaw’s A-game and he’ll likely be inside the top three on a list similar to this. Until then, we speculate as to which underdog out there is currently in the best position to dethrone The Claw from winning his third consecutive prestigious pitching award.
Honorable mentions con’t: CHC Jake Arrieta (3-1, 2.03, 25 K), STL Michael Wacha (4-0, 2.42, 16 K) and WAS Max Scherzer (1-2, 1.26, 29 K)
Next: James Shields
5. James Shields – 5 GS, 2-0, 2.90 ERA, 41 K
Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
A move over to an NL roster and a rather pitcher friendly home ballpark appears to have done wonders to James Shields‘ game and confidence. For some reason, his career K/9 of 7.7 is up to 11.9 in 2015 and he ranks second behind only Kershaw in NL strikeouts.
Shields has factored into Cy voting a few times in the past, but has never been inside the top 10 of a ballot. Typically not outstanding, but rather a consistently strong workhorse, at 33 he appears to be taking a significant step forward so far this season.
The San Diego Padres already had a strong rotation headlined by Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross before they decided to make Shields a late offseason offer which he accepted and signed on February 11. He got $75 million over four seasons. Not quite Scherzer or Jon Lester money, but right now Shields looks every bit like the ace of the Padres and is certainly pitching better than Lester is (0-2, 6.23).
It remains to be seen if the hefty workload from his past will catch up with Shields this season or in future ones while under contract with the Padres. But while the future remains a question mark, the present is no sweat for Shields right now.
He is 5-for-5 in quality starts and recently dropped his ERA from 3.24 to where it sits currently after dominating the first place Houston Astros. In that outing he pitched six innings of six hit, one earned run ball, taking full advantage of the young Astros’ propensity to swing and miss by K’ing 12.
Next: Matt Harvey
4. Matt Harvey – 4 GS, 4-0, 3.04 ERA, 31 K
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
With Tommy John surgery in his rearview, Matt Harvey has picked up right where he left off in 2013. Despite being snubbed from an Opening Day start in 2015 in favor of Bartolo Colon, the decision did not alter his nor Colon’s success levels.
The Mets are doing very well in the NL East and it’s because of pitching pitching. While Colon is 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA, Harvey and sophomore Jacob deGrom are also doing wonderful things in the rotation. Of all three, Harvey has the highest ceiling.
The 26-year-old finished fourth in 2013 NL Cy Young voting the same year he tore his UCL despite starting only 26 games. He was that dominant. With a perfect winning record in 2015 to start his year off, Harvey has picked up two wins on the road and two at home, with all but the one versus the crosstown Yankees coming against division rivals.
The best part about Harvey’s game in 2015 has been his deft control. Through 26.2 innings pitched, he has walked only three batters and has an insanely promising K:BB ratio of 10.33. But fear not, the TJ surgery has done little to his velocity and Harvey is still making a living by being a power pitcher with a K/9 of 10.5, over half a point higher than his career mark of 9.9. Pre TJ surgery in 2013, his four-seam fastball was averaging 95.4 mph. In 2015 right now, the four-seamer is sitting at an even 95 mph on average and has touched as high as 99 mph on the gun.
At this time last year, all the talk about Big Apple pitching surrounded Masahiro Tanaka. Now it essentially surrounds any pitcher who wears a Mets jersey. If Harvey can pull off the feat and collect his first ever Cy, he would be the fourth Mets pitcher in history to do so after Tom Seaver (1969, 73, 75), Dwight Gooden (1985) and R.A. Dickey (2012).
Perhaps even more notable in Mets lore is that it would mark the third time in history that a Mets pitcher followed up an NL ROY award with a Cy Young award in consecutive seasons. In 1972, pitcher John Matlack’s ROY was followed up by Seaver winning the Cy in ’73. Then Gooden followed his ’84 ROY season by winning his only Cy in ’85. As it stands right now, deGrom’s 2014 puts a talented Mets rotation in a nice spot to accomplish this strange feat.
Next: Gerrit Cole
3. Gerrit Cole – 5 GS, 4-0, 1.76 ERA, 35 K
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
After 41 starts and 255.1 IP spread out from 2013-14, Gerrit Cole looks to be living up to his first overall billing from the 2011 MLB amateur draft and is now breaking out — knock on wood, Pirates fans.
Saying Cole struggled through his first two seasons in MLB is not at all accurate. He went 21-12 with a 3.45 ERA over those two seasons. But now the 24-year-old right-hander has shifted from good to being lights-out. He was a high strikeout pitcher in the minors and is just now starting to rack up the punch outs in his big league career.
Cole never experienced a K/9 lower than 9.3 from his first two years in the minors at any level of ball. Then in 12 Triple-A starts in 2013, it dipped as low as 6.2 and 6.4 in four Triple-A starts the following season.
After opening his rookie season with a K/9 of 7.7 at the MLB level in 2013, Cole upped the ante in 2014 by getting up to 9.0. Now in 2014, he ranks inside the top 10 in the NL for wins, ERA and strikeouts, with his K/9 being a very respectable 10.3.
It will take a lot of work and focus for Cole to remain sharp in 2015, as his Pirates are one of three teams in the NL Central with winning records. The Cardinals (15-6) and the Cubs (12-8) both rank inside the top half of the league for team batting averages.
The last Pirate pitcher to win this prestigious pitching award was Doug Drabek in 1990.
Next: Johnny Cueto
2. Johnny Cueto – 5 GS, 2-2, 1.95, 38 K
Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports
Before Kershaw resumed action last season, Johnny Cueto was the odds on favorite to win the NL award. He still might have had one of the beter seasons ever by a starting pitcher to not win the award, having went 20-9 with a 2.25 ERA and leading the way in NL strikeouts with 242.
So yeah, Kershaw was outstanding in 2014. But after five starts, Cueto has more wins, a lower ERA and only five less strikeouts than the Dodgers’ ace in 2015.
At 5-foot-11, Cueto’s physique does not scream prototypical power pitcher, but he’s been one of the tops in the game as just that since 2011. His yearly average dating back to then produces a line of 13-6, 2.48 and 142. But since 2011, his K/9 has jumped from 6.0 to the career high of 9.2 in 2015.
Playing in a contract year and now without the support of Homer Bailey behind him in the rotation, Cueto can use the following as motivation to post the best numbers yet of his career, and he’s still only 29. He should be one of the more talented free agent pitchers this offseason to cash in like Scherzer and Lester did the year before him.
With breakout rookie Anthony DeSclafani (2-1, 1.04) looking like a great candidate for NL ROY, both he and Cueto have a real chance to do something very special this season in the Cincinnati Reds’ rotation.
Next: Zack Greinke
1. Zack Greinke – 5 GS, 4-0, 1.93, 27 K
Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Zack Greinke now looks to be fully embracing the SoCal lifestyle and his time with the Dodgers. He is off to his second consecutive 4-0 start with Los Angeles, is sporting the long, golden surfer style locks and is outplaying the resident ace in Kershaw.
Greinke is by no means an underdog to come away with this award, as he won it in 2009 as a 24-year-old with the Kansas City Royals. He and Kershaw are probably the best 1-2 pitching punch in all of baseball and if not for No. 22 on the roster, No. 21 would easily be the ace of this Dodgers pitching staff and probably any other one in the NL, for that matter.
From 2013-14, Greinke finished inside the top 10 in NL Cy young voting. He’s one of the higher paid starters across all MLB, but he has not let many people down since his sophomore 2005 season when he experienced a learning curve and went 5-17 with a 5.80 ERA in 33 starts for the Royals.
Following that rough year, he’s since posted seven straight 10-plus win season, has an average ERA of 3.21 and has registered four seasons with over 200 strikeouts.
The Dodgers, like last year, have a very nice team in 2015. There will be lots of run support for the pitching staff to gobble up wins on a regular basis. What Greinke mildly lacks in strikeout potential, he more than makes up for with his command. His career 2.2 BB/9 and 3.61 K:BB ratio exudes everyday confidence in his stuff whenever he takes the mound.