MLB Awards Watch: Top 5 AL MVP candidates through May
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One third of the 2015 Major League Baseball season has been documented to this point. After the month of April was complete, the five frontrunners for AL MVP honors looked like this. Now, with May having come and gone, there are some changes. The MLB awards watch is heating up, and some uncharacteristic names are making bids for individual relevancy.
Players like Jason Kipnis and and veteran Torii Hunter both had pretty strong May’s. While they might not crack the top five this month, if they stay hot, there’s a real chance they could be featured on the list following June.
Kipnis set a new Cleveland Indians franchise record for hits in the month of May with 51, slashing a distinctively superior .429/.511/.706 to all his AL competition. He is now hitting a solid .340 on the season, good for second best in the American League. Add to those numbers a five home runs, five stolen bases and 25 RBI and it’s clear the 28-year-old second baseman really is developing into a special everyday player.
Hunter, meanwhile, finished with the second most RBI (25) in the month of May and is a large reason his Minnesota Twins went 20-7 this past month and now find themselves in a race for the AL Central title with the Royals and Tigers. He is now hitting .279 with seven homers and 32 RBI as a whole.
Other honorable mentions in this category would have to go to catcher Stephen Vogt (.322-11-38) of the Oakland Athletics and Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer (.302-7-31).
Prince Fielder also deserves real consideration in this category. The 31-year-old is having a remarkable comeback season, and his hitting stats suffer the misfortune of him having only started 10 games at first base in 2015. The other 41 have been at the designated hitter position, and the BBWAA typically frowns on handing the MVP over to one dimensional position players. But if Fielder is capable of getting the 25-26 Texas Rangers into the postseason and keeps up his momentous ways at the plate, he has to be considered a threat to win the award. He’s currently hitting .359 with 10 long shots and 38 RBI.
Next: Number 5
5. LHP Dallas Keuchel – 7-1, 1.76 ERA, 2 CG, 60 SO, 3.6 WAR
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Houston Astros pitcher Dallas Keuchel deserves serious consideration at this point. While it’s rare the BBWAA awards a pitcher the MVP — especially in the AL where they do not register at-bats — Keuchel is more valuable to the first place Astros right now than Clayton Kershaw was to the Dodgers at this point last year.
Through June 1 of 2014, Kershaw was 3-2 with a 3.57 ERA after missing most of April. Keuchel is currently 7-1 with a 1.76 ERA. He has pitched two complete games and is second across all of MLB with a WAR mark of 3.6. If he can stay healthy and pitch for the entire season while leading the Astros to their first ever AL West title and first division title since 2001 when they were members of the NL Central, the 27-year-old southpaw should garner a substantial number of votes in the MVP category.
It was only 2011 when RHP Justin Verlander won AL MVP honors and 1992 saw a relief pitcher, Dennis Eckersley, take home the award. While the AL is full of talented hitters who are pacing themselves adequately for Cooperstown nominations one day, Keuchel will be both a man and arm to watch in the coming months of the season.
Next: Number 4
4. RF Nelson Cruz – .335 BA, 18 HR, 38 RBI, 2.5 WAR
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Nelson Cruz gets the nod where Fielder does not because even though he is a sub-par defender, Cruz has registered 31 starts in right field and 19 at designated hitter. Where he lacks defensive prowess, he more than makes up for with his explosive boomstick in 2015.
Cruz leads MLB with 18 home runs and sits atop the American League in terms of both slugging percentage (.660) and on-base plus slugging percentage (1.051). While the PED suspension will loom over him when it comes to considerations for any major awards, it will be tough for the BBWAA to disregard back-to-back strong seasons from the slugger who will then be two full seasons removed from the Biogenesis scandal.
The 34-year-old has been a one-man army for the Seattle Mariners in 2015 — especially when you consider the lack of work teammate Robinson Cano (.251-2-16) is doing from within the lineup. Cruz’s supporting cast is certainly not as strong as some other players who will appear ahead of him on this list, so if he can keep the M’s afloat and within reach of a first place finish in the AL West come September, it will likely mean his name is going to appear on some ballots for the 2015 AL MVP award.
Seattle is currently 6.5 games back of the first place Astros.
Next: Number 3
3. CF Mike Trout – .295 BA, 12 HR, 27 RBI, 3.2 WAR
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Barring a serious injury, it seems like Mike Trout will perennially be a contender for this award every season. The running gag is that he won his first MVP in the weakest of his first three Major League campaigns. With that goes the fact that since his rookie season in 2012, the Millville Meteor has finished in the top two of MVP voting every year since.
The five-tool player is only 23 and should remain a fully functioning five-tool weapon for years to come. His WAR of 3.2 is bested by only four players in the league and he seems like a lock for a 20-20 season and could possibly flirt with 30-30 output. His whiff rates have fluctuated in recent seasons and while it doesn’t look like he will ever again reach the 49 stolen bases he put up in 2012, there’s no denying Trout can accomplish anything he sets his mind to.
For all of the great things Trout is on the field, he’s perhaps at his best when it comes to running the base paths. Supported by a lifetime OBP of .394, he has led the American League in runs scored every year since his rookie effort. He’s currently sitting in third place in the AL in that category now. When an organization has a player with the speed and ability of getting on-base and scoring runs like an All-Star caliber leadoff hitter coupled with the power of a contact hitting cleanup bat, it’s a win-win situation in most instances.
Next: Number 2
2. 3B Josh Donaldson – .312 BA, 15 HR, 39 RBI, 3.2 WAR
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With the AL East looking like a toss up in 2015, the Toronto Blue Jays are in no threat of being out of postseason contention at 23-29. They are only 3.5 games back of the first place Yankees. The Jay’s pitching needs a few fixes, but their hitting is just fine.
Josh Donaldson is the main reason for that. The offseason trade looks to be paying off hugely for Toronto. A move to the favorable ballparks of the AL East and a cozy lineup rich with talented hitting has the third baseman having a career year.
He leads MLB in runs scored (43) and is presently outpacing all other AL hitter’s in runs batted in (39). Donaldson’s 15 home runs are second to only Cruz in Seattle, and he ranks in the top five in the AL for hits, slugging percentage and total bases. He hit .301 back in 2013, so it’s certainly in his DNA to keep his batting average near its present .312 mark. Donaldson is also a valuable defender at third base with a dWAR of 0.5 through May 31.
Donaldson’s versatility at the plate should not go without mention, either. He has hit leadoff in seven games, two-hole in 30, third in six and fifth in eight games. Given the consistency that has come from him being juggled around the lineup so often and early in the season, it makes his overall numbers even more impressive.
Appearing in all 52 games for the Blue Jays this season, the 2014 All-Star has twice appeared in the top 10 of AL MVP voting in consecutive years from 2013-14. Will 2015 finally be the season Donaldson cracks the top three, or possibly wins it?
Next: Number 1
1. 1B Miguel Cabrera – . 333 BA, 11 HR, 34 RBI, 2.4 WAR
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
While Miguel Cabrera is not a decisive frontrunner right now, he has to be in the No. 1 spot based on his track record and the Detroit Tigers’ success so far in 2015.
The team is winning and Miggy is raking, as per usual. The Tigers have found their way to the postseason in four straight seasons now dating back to 2011. Not coincidentally, Cabrera has won an MVP in two of those four seasons. The epitome of a natural born hitter, Cabrera’s plate discipline and quick hands make him one of the best hitter’s of his generation, and quite possibly ever.
Only 32 and showing no signs of slowing down, Cabrera is becoming a more complete hitter as he ages. From his age 20-26 seasons, he averaged 118 strikeouts per season and failed to finish a season with an OPS greater than .999. From age 27-31, Miggy has recorded four seasons with an OPS of .999 or greater and has averaged only 88 strikeouts per year. His bat is becoming more deft with experience and he is helping to offset the loss of Victor Martinez in the Tigers’ batting order right now.
In the final season of an eight-year, $152.3 million deal, Cabrera’s eight-year, $248 million extension is set to kick in starting in 2016. Given that he’s still hitting like a Hall of Fame player, a $28 million salary next season should be easy for the Tigers to stomach.
Conversely, Trout’s Angels teammate Albert Pujols is only three years older than Miggy and is making $24 million in 2015. However, since leaving St. Louis and signing with Los Angeles in 2012, Pujols has dropped his career batting average from .328 to .315 in a little over three seasons time. Miggy’s lifetime batting average currently sits at a more than respectable .320.