Minnesota Twins' Walker must cut down on Ks to play in majors

Adam Brett Walker hasn’t hit a home run in four days. That may not sound like a big deal, but actually, it sort of is.

You see, the Twins prospect and Chattanooga Outlooks’ leftfielder hit a two-run homer June 21 in a 6-5 win over the Jacksonville Suns. That was the last game before the Southern League All-Star break—Walker was on the All-Star team and went 1-for-5 with two runs in the game. After the All-Star break, he homered in four-of-five games. Next came an off day for the Lookouts, and the next two days were lost to rainouts. That brings us to yesterday, when Walker went a combined 1-for-5 in a doubleheader against the Birmingham Barons.

Walker’s power is prodigious. He leads the Southern League and the Minors in home runs with 23. He’s won the Florida State League and SL home run derbies in consecutive years and his .271 AVG/.328 OBP/.604 SLG slash line is an impressive one considering fellow Chattanooga teammates Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano were promoted to the majors hitting .283/.351/.489/6 HR and .274/.374/.544/15 HR, respectively. So why is he flying under the radar as one of the game’s best prospects?

When power prospects are dissected, strikeouts usually come into play, and Walker is no exception. Except, actually, he is. Yes, Walker has a ton of power, but he’s also striking out at a mind-boggling rate. Walker also leads the Southern League in strikeouts by a wide margin; Walker has 112 Ks entering play Saturday, while second place has only 76. That makes for a 37.5 K%, which is almost six points higher than second place.

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Today’s whiff-walk-and-wallop style of offense is inclined to forgive high-strikeout hitters if they have a significant amount of walk and wallop in their repertoire. Walker’s strikeout rate is high by even the most lenient of standards, and it suggests it may be his undoing as he climbs the minors.

Over the past five seasons, few SL hitters have come close to whiffing at Walker’s K-rate, and none that are that high are threatening the majors. There are some with high rates to make the majors, Like Kyle Kubitza of the Angels and Jake Lamb of the Diamondbacks, but their whiff game wasn’t that high. Look at the other Double-A leagues, the Eastern League and Texas League, and the trend continues. The Padres’ Derek Norris (27.7 K% in 2011), the Nationals’ Michael Taylor (29.5 % in 2014) and the Astros’ Domingo Santana (29.2%, 2013) have had high K-rates as well.

The big question surrounding Walker is whether or not he’ll draw enough walks to make the feast-or-famine worth it. Check out how Walker’s career stats line up to other power hitters while they were in the minors:

Walker 2012-2015: 3.13 BABIP/ 17.1 AB/HR / 27.5 K%/ 7.0 BB%

Chris Carter (Astros) 2005-2010: .331 BABIP/ 16. 9 AB/HR / 23.4 K% / 12.1 BB%

Adam Dunn (Reds, et.al) 1998-2001: .343 BABIP/ 19.2 AB/HR / 18.2 K% / 15.5 BB%

Chris Davis (Orioles) 2006-2008: .349 BABIP/ 14.1 AB/HR / 25.6 K% / 7.3 BB%

Kris Bryant (Cubs) 2013-2015: .397 BABIP / 11.8 AB/HR / 26.6 K% / 12.8 BB%

Miguel Sano (Twins) 2010-2015: .332 BABIP/ 15.4 AB/HR / 26.0 K%/ 12.2 BB%

Walker has the consistent power. But his walk rate is low compared to the other hitters. This is a very small sample of comparison, so hard conclusions can’t be drawn. Carter gets consistent playing time even though he’s been below the Mendoza the majority of the season, so teams aren’t unwilling to accommodate.

In short, the power will play. Walker will either need to draw more walks or cut way back on the strikeouts in order to make the jump to the majors.

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