Time to push back the MLB trade deadline
By Tim Haberin
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has taken several opportunities during his first season in office to assure the baseball community that he will not be a carbon copy of his predecessor Bud Selig. From the designated hitter debate to Pete Rose‘s reinstatement case to the possibility of changes to instant replay, Manfred has insisted on numerous occasions that he is open to new ideas about how to improve and reinvigorate the league. In the latest example, he remarked on the prospect of pushing back the date of the non-waiver trade deadline in the future:
"“I think that the July 31 Deadline is something that we may want to revisit in the context of the revised playoff format. Obviously when you have two additional opportunities to be in the playoffs, you have more teams in the hunt and they may want to wait a little longer before they make decisions. On the other hand, you’ve got to remember, we want teams that the core of which have been together for the year playing in the postseason. So you have to just balance those two issues, I think.”"
As is his style, Manfred carefully acknowledges both sides of the argument in delivering his comments. Each perspective has its valid points, but the past few seasons have made a strong case for postponing the MLB trade deadline.
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The addition of two extra Wild Card spots in 2012 transformed baseball’s postseason landscape considerably. One more team in each league gets to experience playoff baseball (albeit for one game). While advancing through the postseason as a Wild Card winner became more difficult in light of the single-game playoff, getting into the postseason itself became a little easier. More teams now have a legitimate shot at nabbing one of the Wild Card berths deeper into the season.
Naturally, that also means fewer teams are willing to give up on themselves by July 31. As it stands right now, 17 teams (including every team in the AL) are within ten games of a Wild Card spot in their league. Eight are within five. The playoff picture could change many times over between now and the end of September. The new system has produced some wild finishes the last several years, and there is little reason to think the current campaign will be any different.
So here we are, barely having caught our breath during the All-Star break, with the trade deadline now only a week away. While it has traditionally been an exciting midsummer event for baseball fans, lately it feels like it arrives just a bit too soon. As a result, the quality of business now being done at the deadline fluctuates greatly. While David Price and Jon Lester were dealt last season, the year before was highlighted by names like Bud Norris and Ian Kennedy. July 31 seems to have become more of a chore or underwhelming exercise than a date to eagerly circle on your calendar.
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There is such an onus on teams now to stamp a “pass” or “fail” on their seasons midway through, and organizations are frequently struggling with it. Case in point, this year’s Detroit Tigers. A multitude of reports over the last few days have speculated whether they will be buyers or sellers (or perhaps neither) at the deadline. Though they have fallen over ten games off the pace in the AL Central, the Wild Card is still well within reach at three games. Do they bet on themselves to remain competitive down the stretch? Or would it be smarter to instead look toward the future by cashing in chips like Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria? They will need to decide within the next eight days.
Manfred’s argument for playoff teams having continuity “cores” makes sense, but the league wouldn’t need to push the deadline back that much to make a positive impact. Even delaying it by just a week would probably help to allow teams to get a better sense of where they stand and enter the trade market more confidently. With an issue like this, MLB can afford to experiment. It would also be a great opportunity for the league’s new leadership to show that it will listen to feedback and take action.