Early on Thursday reports started to surface that Jason Heyward had narrowed his choices down to the Cubs and Cardinals. However, later in the day rumors of a “mystery team” being involved started to spread. Jon Heyman broke the news that the Washington Nationals were that team.
Nats are in on jason heyward. Mystery team has been solved. Washington joins cubs, cards in JH derby.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 10, 2015
The revelation that the Nationals were pursuing Heyward was a surprise to many. Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors notes that Heyward reportedly has an offer on the table for $200 million. If the Nationals are willing to go that high and sign Heyward it will mark the second off-season in a row they’ve signed a player for north of $200 million. Last year Washington signed Max Scherzer to a seven year deal worth $210 million.
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Washington’s struggles were well publicized last season. Coming in to 2015 they were the clear favorites to win the NL East if not the World Series. They entered the season with what had been dubbed a “super rotation,” and they returned what appeared to be an incredibly talented group of position players. However, a number of players underperformed (Desmond, Werth, and Rendon to name a few), and the Nationals limped to an 83-79 finish.
Their problems extended beyond the playing field and in to the dugout. Conflict between manager Matt Williams and his players got increasing attention throughout the season. Turmoil within the team came to a head at the end of September when MVP Bryce Harper and reliever Jonathan Papelbon got into a fight in the dugout. It was clear that the Nationals were going to have to make changes, and they’ve made several so far this off-season.
However, few analysts expected signing the high priced Heyward to be one of those changes. As Tom Verducci of SI notes many teams and executives see Heyward as potentially a “risky buy.” Over his six MLB seasons his offensive numbers have been good, but not what one might expect from a potentially $200 million player. This past season Heyward hit .293/.359/.439 with 13 HR, 60 RBI, and 23 SB in his first year with the Cardinals. In 2010 Heyward actually had his most productive offensive season as a rookie. Since then he’s struggled to live up to the lofty expectations that many had of him, but a lot of Heyward’s value comes from what he does without a bat in his hand.
This becomes evident when seeing that Heyward accumulated 6 fWAR this season. That total was good enough for eleventh in all of baseball. By DRS he was easily the best right fielder in the game saving ten more runs than the second place finisher (Curtis Granderson). UZR paints a similar picture as Heyward’s total (20.3) sits almost seven full points above Kole Calhoun. Not only did Heyward play stellar defense, but he also finished in the top five of players who added the most runs for their team by their base running (BsR).
What these numbers make clear is that Heyward is a good offensive player who excels defensively and on the base paths. Not only that, but at twenty-six years old he offers teams a big name free agent signing at a younger age than normal. So how would he fit in with the Nationals? Todd, in his MLB Trade Rumors piece, mentions the possibility of playing Heyward in CF in between Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper. The Nationals could also look to move Werth and keep Michael Taylor in the outfield mix.
While a number of teams have expressed interest in Heyward one of the questions that has to be answered is whether or not teams will be able to “sell” his value to their fanbase. Contracts north of $200 million are still rare, and for that price many fans might expect MVP type production out of a player. As noted above, a lot of Heyward’s value comes from areas that some fans might not easily recognize, and it’s possible that signing him to this type of deal might create expectations that he can never live up to.
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The Nationals need to do something to wipe away the memory of last season. Replacing Matt Williams was the first step in that process. Will signing Heyward be the second step in bringing the Nationals the post-season success they anticipated a year ago? One thing’s for sure, fans of three fan bases will all be holding their breath until Heyward makes a decision.