Predicting the Final NL East Standings in 2016
By Nick Fustor
5. Atlanta Braves
Projected Record: 65-97
Key Additions: SS Erick Aybar, OF Ender Inciarte, SS Dansby Swanson (prospect), RHP Aaron Blair (prospect)
Key Subtractions: RHP Shelby Miller, SS Andrelton Simmons, LHP Mike Minor, OF Cameron Maybin
Biggest Strength: Contact hitting
Biggest Weakness: Lack of impact talent
As the Atlanta Braves enter the stages of a full rebuild, it looks as if 2016 will be another trying season for a team searching for direction. Led by Freddie Freeman and Julio Teheran, the Braves are short on marquee talent to build around.
After trading away star pitcher Shelby Miller and defensive anchor Andrelton Simmons, the team did gain a collection of young talent that should arrive within a few seasons – including last year’s number one overall pick in the Amateur Draft, shortstop Dansby Swanson.
But there’s not much to be excited about on the current roster. The team added Erick Aybar to hold over the shortstop position until Swanson is ready, and acquired Ender Inciarte to take over centerfield duties. Freeman will once again be expected to do the heavy lifting in terms of producing runs, and it could be another down year average-wise for the first baseman.
Since 2013, Freeman has seen a decline in his batting average in each season – from .319 in 2013, to .288 in 2014, to .276 in 2015. While his overall slash line of .276/.370/.471 with 18 home runs and 66 RBI in only 118 games was solid, it’s clear he needs more protection lower in the lineup.
That protection could come in the form of recent Cuban signee Hector Olivera, who will make the move to left field this season. Olivera played decent ball in only 24 major league games last season – hitting .253/.310/.405 with a 13.8 strikeout percentage – but is expected to make a big jump this season as he fully adjusts to life in the majors. One cause for concern, though, was his low walk rate of 5.8 percent last season.
The rest of the lineup is relatively mediocre. Inciarte can provide a spark out of the leadoff spot after hitting .303 with a .338 OBP last season, but that was in a strong Arizona lineup. Second baseman Jace Pederson could take some steps forward this season, while veterans Nick Markakis and Erick Aybar will most likely produce at their typical rates.
Third baseman Adonis Garcia can provide some pop after hitting 10 home runs in 2015, but his ability to consistently get on base is a question mark.
Atlanta’s pitching isn’t much better. Behind Julio Teheran – who is coming off a down year – there aren’t any proven major league options. Bud Norris will provide a veteran presence, but Matt Wisler and Mike Foltynewicz have yet to prove themselves. The two, however, will likely be able to play the entire season with the major league club barring any injuries or serious problems.
The bullpen is highlighted by new closer Arodys Vizcaino, who pitched to a smooth 1.60 ERA in 36 games last season, but the rest is lacking depth.
While the Braves could make a run at some point, it would take a lot for their young talent and veterans to all produce at a consistently high level.
Next: 4. Philadelphia Phillies