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Predicting the Final NL East Standings in 2016

By Nick Fustor

October 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; New York Mets right fielder Curtis Granderson (3) celebrates with center fielder Yoenis Cespedes (52) after scoring a run in the first inning against Los Angeles Dodgers in game five of NLDS at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
October 15, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; New York Mets right fielder Curtis Granderson (3) celebrates with center fielder Yoenis Cespedes (52) after scoring a run in the first inning against Los Angeles Dodgers in game five of NLDS at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports /
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4. Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nola will need to develop quickly if the Phillies have any hope at contenting.  Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Aaron Nola will need to develop quickly if the Phillies have any hope at contenting.  Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports /

Projected Record: 66-96

Key Additions: RHP Jeremy Hellickson, OF Peter Bourjos, RHP Charlie Morton, RHP Mark Appel (prospect)

Key Subtractions: LHP Cliff Lee, RHP Ken Giles

Biggest Strength: Potential

Biggest Weakness: Pitching depth

The Philadelphia Phillies have been among baseball’s worst teams over the past few seasons for a variety of reasons, but mainly because of their unwillingness to devote themselves to a full rebuild.

However, the Phillies’ mindset changed mid-season when they traded away beloved second baseman Chase Utley, ace Cole Hamels and disgruntled closer Jonathan Papelbon – and subsequently ousted general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. later in the season.

Along with top shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford, the Phillies farm system is now loaded with talent – it may not be premiere, ticket-selling talent yet, but it’s talent nonetheless.  As for the major league roster, the team actually has some above-average pieces that could play well enough to fend off the prospects for another season.

The key to the Phillies offensive success will be the rise of young third baseman Maikel Franco.  The 23-year old made a big impact during his second stint with the team, slashing .280/.343/.497 to go along with 14 home runs and 50 RBI in just 80 games.

Despite a season-ending injury, Franco’s future looks extremely bright.  His 7.8 walk percentage and 15.5 strikeout percentage show his advanced approach at the plate – and his walks should increase as he establishes himself.  Franco’s main fault is in his defense at third base (-17.0 UZR/150), so a transition to first base may be in order at some point.

The rest of the lineup will depend on a successful sophomore campaign from centerfielder Odubel Herrera, who hit .297 and stole 16 bases in his first major league season.  Another potential impact piece is the aforementioned Crawford – who could see a taste of action with the big league club at some point this season.

As for the pitching rotation, Aaron Nola will be relied upon to become the team’s No. 1 starter after an impressive rookie season despite being drafted just a year before.  Nola posted a 3.59 ERA and 7.88 strikeouts per nine innings while only walking 2.88 batters per nine.  Veterans Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton provide a solid 2-3 duo, but the fourth and fifth starter positions remain unclear.  If Mark Appel can get off to a strong start, he could be in the majors by June.

The Phillies’ bullpen likely will be an issue for the team all season after trading away Ken Giles this offseason. At the very least this season, the Phillies will see some action from their top prospects while flipping any veteran pieces performing well by the deadline.  The balance of their lineup and top three starters keeps them just ahead of the Braves, too.

Next: 3. Miami Marlins

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