After capturing the division title last season and making a solid appearance in the ALDS, the Texas Rangers are the reigning kings of the AL West. With a record of 88-74, they may very well be the favorite to take the division again this year.
But in an increasingly competitive division, do the Rangers have what it takes to defend their spot at the top? Here’s what you should be looking at in Spring Training in order to get an idea.
Key Offseason Additions: RF Justin Ruggiano, RHP Tom Wilhelmsen
Key Offseason Subtraction: 1B Mike Napoli
The Rotation: The Rangers’ rotation is very theoretical right now. In fact, there’s not much to be sure of. They may get their ace back in Yu Darvish who went down in 2015’s Spring Training. He’ll be coming off Tommy John surgery, but may not actually be back by the time that Opening Day gets here.
Darvish isn’t the only worrisome part of the rotation. Yovani Gallarado, the team’s workhorse in 2015, who made an appearance in 33 games and registered a very respectable 3.42 ERA, has not yet been signed by the club for the 2016 season. In other words, one of the biggest pieces of their rotation isn’t guaranteed to be back next year.
But if you’re a Rangers fan, there’s no need to panic. You still have Cole Hamels, one of the most consistent guys in the game. Hamels appeared in 32 games last year, and had a 3.65 ERA. Not only do the Rangers have Hamels coming back, they also have Colby Lewis returning as well. Lewis appeared in 33 games, posting a slightly less impressive 4.66 ERA.
All of this combines to make an incredibly unique situation for the Rangers. If Darvish is healthy and the Rangers bring back Gallardo, they have a very solid four in Darvish, Hamels, Lewis and Gallardo. But, if Darvish isn’t healthy and they don’t bring back Gallardo, then their rotation is in serious trouble.
The Rangers’ rotation is both solid and in jeopardy all at the same time.
The Lineup: One thing that the Rangers shouldn’t have to worry much about is their offense. Their bats consistently put up runs, averaging just over 4.6 runs per game. Their above-average power resulted in 172 home runs last year, which paired nicely with the consistency of their lineup. The Rangers posted a respectable .257 team batting average in the 2015 season.
To put just how good their offense was into a little bit clearer perspective: the Rangers were ranked third in the league in all-encompassing offense.
Led by a healthy Prince Fielder and a very timely Adrian Beltre, the Rangers’ offense was the key to holding off both the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Angels down the stretch of the season. But here’s the thing: with the third best offense in the league, the Rangers were still only three losses from finishing in third place in the AL West and missing the playoffs entirely. This is an incredibly tight division. Will their offense be able to hold up the way it did last year? Even so, will it be enough?
Here’s a look at the lineup that will likely have that herculean responsibility:
- CF Delino DeShields
- 2B Rougned Odor
- DH Prince Fielder
- 3B Adrian Beltre
- 1B Mitch Moreland
- LF Josh Hamilton
- RF Shin-Soo Choo
- SS Elvis Andrus
- C Robinson Chirinos
There’s one more thing that we should talk about when it comes to this lineup that the Rangers will likely put out on the field every day. This isn’t the strongest fielding lineup to say the least. While their offense is dominant, they’re ranked 28th in the league in all-encompassing fielding.
Granted, this is Major League Baseball, and people don’t make errors that often. In fact, the difference between the Rangers’ fielding percentage and the percentage of the top ranked Los Angeles Dodgers is only .007 percent. But every error can make a huge impact, and that .007 percent can be the difference in more than a few games, especially if their offense takes a step back.
The Bullpen: The Rangers bullpen in 2015 was far from exceptional. In fact, their bullpen was the sixth worst in the league. That, combined with their currently questionable starting rotation, makes their pitching a cause for concern at the moment.
But there’s no reason to jump ship yet. Their pitching being a cause for concern isn’t the same as their pitching being terrible. And the statistics can be a little bit deceiving. Even though they have the sixth worst bullpen in the league, they actually have seven different guys coming out of the pen that posted an ERA under 3.00 last season. That’s not incredible, but it’s not terrible either.
And they probably picked up some guys in the offseason to help out their bullpen, right?
Well, they picked up Wilhelmsen, but that’s about it. He was a good pick-up, though. He appeared in 53 games in the 2015 season, and posted a 3.19 ERA. In fact, the only season in which Wilhelmsen didn’t make 50 or more appearances was his rookie season. For a bullpen that only had three guys appear in more than 50 games last year, the addition of another guy that can give them 50 or more appearances a season will certainly be helpful.
But the Rangers having only picked up one reliever is pretty consistent with what the Rangers have done in the offseason: not very much. Essentially, the Rangers will have pretty much the exact same pen in 2016 as they had in 2015 except for the addition of Wilhelmsen. And even though that’s not a terrible thing, their bullpen definitely isn’t going to be good enough if their offense doesn’t bail them out the same way that they did last season.
The Deals: The Rangers have either felt very confident that they can win in 2016 with the same team they won with in 2015, or they just haven’t been able to make any deals in the offseason due to payroll issues. Likely, it was a combination of both.
The Rangers’ payroll at the moment is $144.3 million, which makes it the seventh highest payroll in the league. There’s not a whole lot of wiggle room for going out and signing free agents with that high of a payroll.
This is a team that is pretty much set where they’re at. With the exception of Darvish and Gallardo, what you see is pretty much what you get. There’s not going to be a lot of changes to this club between now and Opening Day. In fact, there’s not going to be a lot of changes between this club on Opening Day and last year’s club on Opening Day.
And that’s what makes me less than confident about this team. Don’t get me wrong, they’ll win at least 72 games this season, but I find myself doubting that they’ll be able to repeat what they did last season. Their offense was dominant at the moments when they needed it to be at its most dominant, and it made up for almost all defensive shortcomings.
Next: Predicting the 2016 NL West
Yes, Darvish will make a difference this season. But I just don’t see the Rangers’ offense putting up the same numbers that they did last season. I don’t see Beltre getting that hot again at the back-end of the season. Without the same offense as last season, it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to make up for their below-average defense and hold off both the Angels and the Astros.