Key Additions: Manager Scott Seravis, RHP Nathan Karns, OF Leonys Martin, C Chris Iannetta, C Steve Clevenger, OF Nori Aoki, LHP Wade Miley, RHP Evan Scribner, 1B Adam Lind, RHP Steve Cishek, RHP Hisashi Iwakuma, 1B Dae-Ho Lee, RHP Joaquin Benoit
Key Subtractions: 1B Logan Morrison, SS Brad Miller, OF Mark Trumbo, RHP Carson Smith, LHP Roenis Elias
Few teams came into 2015 with more hype than the Seattle Mariners. In the preseason, a number of analysts picked them to win the AL West, and they were also a trendy pick to make the World Series. In 2014, Seattle finished the 2014 season 87-75 and they missed the playoffs by a single game. With the addition of Nelson Cruz last offseason to a solid core, the Mariners looked primed for a postseason run.
More from Seattle Mariners
- Stock Up, Stock Down: Mariners, Padres, Giants, Phillies
- Julio Rodriguez doing it all for Mariners, including playing peacemaker against Astros
- MLB Trade Deadline: AL West roundup with Rangers, Angels, Astros wishlist, A’s and Mariners for sale
- How the St. Louis Cardinals trading Jordan Walker to the Seattle Mariners makes sense
- What we got right and wrong about 3 surprising and disappointing MLB teams
Unfortunately for Seattle, they could not live up to the hype. Jeff Sullivan noted that during 2015 the Mariners had a number of players who under-performed in comparison to their preseason projections. There were a few bright spots to be sure (primarily Cruz), but the Mariners finished with a disappointing 76-86 record.
It was clear that changes needed to be made, and new GM Jerry Dipoto has wasted no time in turning over the roster. While the core has remained in place the Mariners will trot out a new cast of supporting characters in 2016. How will this new version of the team fare? Lets take a look at the 2016 Seattle Mariners.
The Rotation: The top of the rotation has not changed for Seattle. Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma were both better than league average last year by ERA+. However, it was Hernandez’s worst season of his career since 2006. Over the past handful of years he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, and it can be difficult to live up to those lofty expectations. For the Mariners to have a shot at winning the AL West, they will need the soon to be 30 year-old posting another dominant season.
The return of Iwakuma was a surprise for Mariners fans. In December it looked like the Dodgers had signed the thirty-four year old to a three year $45M contract. The deal ultimately fell through when Los Angeles found problems with Iwakuma’s physical. He was really good down the stretch last season, and his return gives Seattle a formidable top end of the rotation.
The final three rotation spots will likely be filled by a combination of Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Nate Karns, or Wade Miley. Walker is only 23, and was a highly touted prospect. He did struggle in his first full year in the majors, but Seattle will hope for a better sophomore season. Miley comes to Seattle after one season in Boston. His 11-11 record and 4.46 ERA did not impress, but his 3.81 FIP suggests those numbers are a little deceptive. He should also enjoy leaving behind a ballpark that finished in the top 5 for runs scored per game (Fenway) in favor of a stadium that ranks in the bottom five for run production (Safeco).
Karns, who was shutdown by the Rays in early September, had a promising 2015. Barring further issues with forearm tightness he should get plenty of opportunities in the Seattle rotation. Paxton was another highly touted prospect in the Mariners’ system. Marc Hulet wrote in 2013 that Paxton’s primary issue was his command. In 13 starts in 2015 he still carried an above average 3.90 BB/9. Paxton will get opportunities to start, but it is also possible he could see time in the bullpen.
The Lineup: When the 2016 season begins the Mariners will likely start four newcomers in the lineup. The core of Seager, Cruz, and Cano remained productive last season. However, the players around that core struggled. Seattle had two major issues that they needed to address. By DRS and UZR they were one of the five worst defenses in the league. Offensively they finished in the bottom ten in runs score and OBP. Jerry Dipoto quickly went to work to try and correct both of these concerns.
Nori Aoki and Leonys Martin are expected to join Seth Smith in the OF. This allows Cruz to spend the bulk of his time at DH. While Martin has not been the most productive player offensively, he rates as a top 25 outfielder by DRS and UZR. Aoki has also routinely rated out as an average to just above average outfielder. Defensively the Mariners have clearly upgraded for 2016.
While Dipoto did not make a big name free agent signing he did address the OBP concerns. Aoki and Lind have consistently gotten on base at above league averages. Ianetta’s offense is nothing to get too excited about, but it would be something for him to be actually any worse than Mike Zunino was last year.
Infield wise, Lind could platoon with Jesus Montero. Lind crushes right hand pitching, but really struggles against lefties. Lastly, Franklin Gutierrez could also function in an outfield platoon with the lefty hitting Aoki or Smith. Aside from Cruz, Gutierrez was far and away Seattle’s most productive outfielder in terms of WAR last season.
Projected Lineup:
- OF Nori Aoki
- 3B Kyle Seager
- DH Nelson Cruz
- 2B Robinson Cano
- 1B Adam Lind
- OF Seth Smith
- SS Ketel Marte
- OF Leonys Martin
- C Chris Iannetta
The Bullpen: The lineup was not the only area to experience heavy turnover. In 2015 the Mariners bullpen rated in the bottom third of the league by ERA and FIP. Surprisingly, Seattle was willing to deal their most productive reliever, Carson Smith, in the deal for Miley. Dipoto has brought in several new reliever options to try and fix the issues from last year.
Steve Cishek will likely be the opening day closer. In 2013 and 2014 he notched over 30 saves per season for the Marlins. His 2015 got off to a rocky start with a 4.50 ERA and a decreased strikeout rate, so Miami sent him to St. Louis. On the surface his season turned around following the trade. His ERA for the Cardinals was a solid 2.31 although a 4.33 FIP suggests things were not as different as they appeared. If he struggles early in the season, the Mariners have a few other options they might look at.
SoDo Mojo
Joaquin Benoit and Evan Scribner were both acquired this offseason. Benoit is entering his 15th major league season, and over the past five years he has remained a highly productive late innings option. His K/9 dropped slightly last year, but he has held his ERA under 2.50 each of the past three seasons. If Cishek struggles, Benoit might be next in line for the closer duties.
Outside of 2012, Scribner has finished as a slightly below average reliever each of his first five seasons. He did see a jump in his strikeout rate and he walks almost no one (BB/9 of 0.6 last season). Whether or not these new additions can fare better than last year’s group, especially with the loss of Smith, is a question mark.
Competitions: Seattle will only have a couple of true competitions for playing time this spring. If Martin’s struggles offensively become too much of a liability, it is possible the newly acquired Boog Powell could see some time.
At catcher the Mariners have three options without an overwhelming favorite. Ianetta will start the season behind the plate, but both Steve Clevenger and Zunino could get opportunities. Many expected Zunino to be Seattle’s catcher for a good number of years, but his offensive numbers bottomed out (48 OPS+) in 2015.