The Atlanta Braves’ No. 4 prospect followed the trend of other rookie pitchers making debuts for the franchise.
Aaron Blair, the Atlanta Braves’ No. 4 prospect according to Baseball Prospectus, made his major league debut Sunday against the New York Mets. He pitched 5 1/3 innings and allowed three runs on six hits, two walks and one strikeout.
The Braves called Blair up to the majors to take the rotation spot of Williams Perez, who we’ll revisit in a moment. Blair made three starts for Triple-A Gwinnett this season, earning the win in all three starts. He allowed three earned runs and struck out 22 batters in 19 innings. In Tuesday’s start, Blair tossed seven no-hit innings with 10 strikeouts and one walk against the Durham Bulls.
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Blair is projected to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Braves. In his minor league career, Blair has posted a 3.28 earned run average, 3.77 fielding independent pitching and 2.89 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He bloomed into a major league ready starter last season after posting a 2.92 ERA and 2.40 K/BB, and personally I was surprised he wasn’t a September call-up last season.
For some context, here are how the other young pitchers around whom the Braves are building fared in their major league debuts:
Ryan Weber, September 8, 2015: six innings pitched, two earned runs — Weber would go on to a 4.76 ERA and 4.02 FIP in 2015. He is pitching out of the bullpen for the Braves this season.
Matt Wisler, June 19, 2015: eight innings, one earned run — The Braves added Wisler in a trade with the San Diego Padres as part of a package for Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton, Jr. Wisler would have mixed success in 2015, posting a 4.71 ERA and 4.93 FIP.
Mike Foltynewicz, May 1, 2015: five innings, two earned runs, three walks — Foltynewicz made his major league debut in 2014 out of the bullpen, but the date mentioned is his first major league start. Foltynewicz struggled in 2015, posting a 5.71 ERA and 5.05 FIP. His batting average on balls in play (.349) and home run rate (1.77 per nine innings) were the main culprits responsible for his struggles.
The Braves added Foltynewicz in a trade with the Houston Astros for designated hitter/catcher Evan Gattis.
Williams Perez, May 20, 2015: five innings, one earned run, seven strikeouts — Blair is taking Perez’s spot in the rotation, as Perez had allowed seven runs and walked eight batters in 12 1/3 innings. Perez finished 2015 with a 4.78 ERA in 20 starts and three relief appearances, two of which came prior to the date mentioned above.
Blair’s minor league performance bears several similarities to each of the four mentioned above. All four had minor league ERAs under 4.00 when they made their first major league start, but Blair’s .279 BABIP is the best of the bunch; Wisler’s .296 is second best.
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Blair’s ranking in a deep farm system that is loaded with pitchers suggests he can be an effective major league starter, but so were Wisler and Foltynewicz. Wisler was the Padres’ No. 3 prospect according to BP before he was traded to the Braves and Foltynewicz was the Houston Astros’ No. 4 prospect before the Gattis trade.