Houston Astros: What Has Gone Wrong in 2016?

On the heels of the unexpected success of the 2015 season, the Houston Astros have struggled mightily to start the 2016 campaign.

A season ago, the Houston Astros were one of the best stories in baseball. They had just come off of losing at least 92 games in each of the past four seasons. However, during that stretch it was clear that the Astros had their eyes set on the future. While it was difficult for fans to watch the Astros tear their team to the ground, it was clear there was a plan. Over several seasons they stockpiled young talent and draft picks. It seemed like it was only a matter of time before they would be competitive again.

Most analysts and fans assumed 2015 was still too early for all of this talent to “arrive.” Yet that’s exactly what happened. By the end of the season, Houston was 86-76 and owners of a playoff spot. They went on to knock off the Yankees in the wild card game, but they ultimately fell to the Royals in the ALDS (3-2). While the season might have ended in disappointment, it was easy to see this as the beginning of a long successful run for the Astros in the AL West.

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That expected success has hit a speed bump at the beginning of 2016. As of today the Astros are 6-13 and in last in the AL West. Last season there were a number of reasons for their success. The offense was top five in baseball by wRC+ (105), and it was spearheaded by super prospect Carlos Correa. Four of their starters were average to above average by ERA+. This included a Cy Young winning season from twenty seven year-old Dallas Keuchel. Defensively they were top five by DRS (30).

So just what has gone wrong this season? Why do the Astros find themselves struggling?

For the most part the issue hasn’t been the offense. They’re again top five in the league by wRC+ (114) and top ten by wOBA (.328). Jose Altuve and Colby Rasmus have led the charge this season, and newcomer Tyler White has been a welcome surprise. Altuve is hitting .321/.409/.617 with 5 HR and 9 SB. Rasmus is in the midst of a run that has elevated his numbers to .274/.418/.661 with 7 HR and 18 RBI.

This level of production has helped mitigate a few poor performs like Carloz Gomez. Gomez was acquired at the trade deadline a season ago to help get the Astros over the top, but so far 2016 has been a major disappointment. His 43 OPS+ highlights the extent of his struggles. Gomez will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, and this can’t be the season he was hoping to have prior to hitting the market.

What has clearly been a struggle this season is the starting rotation. Dallas Keuchel is the only Astros starter who has been better than league average, and he’s only been slightly better. In 2015 Keuchel was the surprise AL Cy Young Winner, but he’s struggled to reproduce those results through four starts this season. His 3.71 ERA isn’t terrible, but he is walking more and striking out fewer hitters.

That being said, the offense has been the least of Houston’s worries. The major issue for the Astros so far has been the starting rotation. Outside of Keuchel, who hasn’t been as good as last season, the rest of the staff has really struggled. Mike Fiers, who also came over at the trade deadline last season, has a 5.73 ERA. Scott Feldman and Doug Fister also have ERAs over 4.50, and their FIPs suggest that they haven’t simply been unlucky. However, the biggest disappointment in the rotation has been Collin McHugh. A season ago he was having a breakout 2015, but this year he’s struggling to keep his ERA under 7.50.

Astros’ starters have allowed the third most runs in the majors up to this point (69), and collectively their ERA is the fourth worst in baseball at 5.27. Regardless of how good the offense has been, it can’t overcoming pitching that has been this consistently poor.

The bullpen, while not great, has been better than the rotation.. However, there have been some disappointing performances form Astros relievers as well. Ken Giles was acquired in the offseason, and he he was expected to be a lock down reliever in late inning situations. He was coming off of an incredible 2015 with a 221 ERA+. Unfortunately for the Astros Giles hasn’t been anywhere near the reliever they watched a season ago. In 8.2 innings of work his ERA is at 8.31, and his ERA+ is an unthinkable 46.

The source of Houston’s struggles show up in their run differential. They’ve tied for the second most runs scored in the AL West (78), but they’ve given up the most runs by far (99). The Rangers have allowed the second most runs in the division with 83. The offense can only do so much, and if Houston doesn’t have a starter step up soon they could dig themselves too large of a hole to climb out of this season.

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Houston started a six game road trip tonight, and over the next few weeks they’ll have opportunities to make up ground in the division. They’re currently in Seattle to face the division leading Mariners, and then they will head to Oakland. If the Astros going to be competitive this season they’ll need to turn things around quickly.

However, if the starting rotation can’t get it together, then Astros fans will find themselves in the unfortunate position of saying “maybe next year” once again.