Felix Hernandez has been a mainstay in the Seattle Mariners rotation for over a decade. How much longer can they continue to count on Hernandez to be their ace?
In the past decade, few pitchers have been as good as Felix Hernandez. The ace of the Seattle Mariners, Hernandez has been a perennial All-Star and Cy Young Award candidate, a pitcher who has put up dominant numbers despite playing for a team that has struggled over the past few years. Virtually any team would want Hernandez to front their rotation.
At only 30 years of age, one would imagine that Hernandez would be in his prime and looking to dominate for the next few years. However, Hernandez has 2287.1 innings in his career, averaging 230 innings per season over a 162 game schedule. How long will it be before that workload starts to catch up to him?
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That decline may have already begun. Hernandez has seen his fastball velocity decline over the past three years, dropping from 92.96 MPH in 2014 to an average of 90.78 MPH in the early going this year. Of equal concern may be the difference in velocity between his fastball and changeup, which has only been about three miles per hour over the past few years. Eventually, that minimal difference will catch up to him.
Likewise, while Hernandez has been difficult to hit this year, he has struggled with his command. In 25 innings, Hernandez has allowed only 14 hits, but has allowed an American League leading 15 walks. While he has typically been difficult to hit over his career, Hernandez walked only 2.5 batters per nine innings in the previous decade. These command issues, if they continue, could truly come back to haunt Hernandez.
According to Hernadez’ FIP, that should have already happened. While he has posted a 1.80 ERA this season, his FIP is 4.15, showing how much he should have been hurt by those free passes. Yet, Hernandez has been able to minimize the damage due to a stellar .188 batting average on balls in play against, a mark that would be virtually impossible to replicate throughout the season.
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Hernandez has done an excellent job of generating ground balls this season, as his current 1.63 ground ball to fly ball ratio is his highest mark since he posted a 2.08 GB/FB as a rookie in 2005. Right now, those ground balls are finding the Mariners infield defense, instead of being hit into the hole or down the lines for base hits. As Hernandez, over his career, has allowed .296 batting average on balls in play against, a mark 108 points higher than what he has allowed this season, that mark appears due to regress back to the mean.
Add in his command issues at the start of the year, and the 2016 season could be a difficult campaign for the Seattle ace. As it stands, Hernandez should be off to one of the rougher starts to a season in his career based on his statistical profile. However, that excellent luck with the batted ball has kept any potential implosions at bay.
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There is still a long way to go in the 2016 season, and Felix Hernandez could well find his typically solid command once again as the year continues. However, there are signs that the Seattle Mariners ace may be beginning to slip. If the Mariners have any designs on making the postseason this year, they cannot afford to have anything less than the Hernandez they have come to count on over the past decade.