Houston Astros: A look at Dallas Keuchel’s rough 2016
2015 American League Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel is having a rough 2016. We take a look at why this season has been so challenging for the Houston Astros’ starter.
2016 has not been kind to reigning American League Cy Young Dallas Keuchel or his team. The Houston Astros’ starter is currently sporting a 2-6 record with a bloated 5.43 ERA (4.11 FIP), and his last win was way back on April 15 when he shut out the Detroit Tigers for eight innings. Since then, Keuchel has made seven starts and he has given up five runs in at least five of them.
His two worst outings of the season have occurred during the month of May.
On May 2, he only lasted 4 1/3 innings against the Minnesota Twins and gave up five runs on seven hits while walking five and only striking out three batters. Then on May 12, Keuchel gave up eight runs on 10 hits—five of the runs came off two home runs—in six innings. He also walked three and struck out four.
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Over the weekend, Keuchel struggled once again. This time, the Texas Rangers scored seven runs in six innings off Keuchel. His undoing in that game was the third inning in which he gave up two doubles and two singles—all of them scored at least one run. Keuchel also didn’t help himself when he started off the inning with a hit by pitch against Ryan Rua. There was also a passed ball and a walk thrown in for good measure. One positive sign from Keuchel in that inning was that he had three strike outs—two swinging and one called.
If you take a look at Keuchel’s overall numbers during his career, 2016 is, so far, matching up with his 2013 campaign. That season he started 22 games and had a 5.15 ERA (4.25 FIP).
What’s not working for Keuchel this year compared to his Cy Young season? Batters are having an easier time hitting Keuchel’s offspeed pitches. Last year, it fluctuated. This season, the off speed pitches that seemed to be working for Keuchel in April have not been working in May.
This month, batters are slugging .875 against Keuchel’s off speed pitches (.375 BA). Last May, they were slugging .469. During his worst month slugging-wise, in July of last season, batters were slugging .529 off his off speed pitches. That’s quite a big spike.
While Keuchel isn’t throwing a lot of changeups compared to the other pitches in his arsenal, they are being hit for power. He also throwing a lot of sinkers, but they’re not being hit as hard as his change.
Another issue plaguing Keuchel is his walk rate. In 2015, Keuchel walked 51 batters while striking out 216. This year, he’s already walked 26 batters and we haven’t even made it to June.
Keuchel was never a hard thrower but he was still able to put up a Cy Young winning season with his fastball velocity only sitting between 90-91 mph because his off speed pitches were so good. This year, he’s averaging below 90 on his fastball and his off speed pitches aren’t fooling a lot of hitters.
It seems the league may be catching up to him. It also seems as if everything fell apart for Keuchel after that eight-inning shut out against Detroit because in his next start, he gave up six runs on 13 hits against the Rangers.
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Maybe 2015 was an outlier and maybe Dallas Keuchel has just come back to earth. It happens in baseball. Sometimes good results aren’t sustainable. It will be interesting to see if he can turn things around in the coming weeks. The key will be Keuchel’s off speed pitches. If he can get them to work again, he can salvage his 2016 season and help his team escape from the AL West basement.