St. Louis Cardinals: What's wrong with Michael Wacha?

Michael Wacha was expected to be a consistent force at the top of the St. Louis Cardinals rotation, but should a couple of poor starts have fans concerned?

It was 2013 when Michael Wacha burst on the scene with multiple dominant postseason performances, helping to the lead the St. Louis Cardinals to another World Series appearance. He was just over one year removed from being drafted 19th overall in the 2012 draft. In that postseason, the then 22-year-old went 4-0 in his first four starts. In those outings, he went at least six innings while giving up only three earned runs in all four appearances.

He showed the makings of succeeding the likes of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright as the Cardinals’ ace of the future with his mid-90s fastball and control that were impressive for a pitcher his age.

In addition to his spectacular postseason, Wacha finished 2014 and 2015 with ERAs of 3.20 and 3.38, respectively. Wacha is a four-pitch pitcher who throws a mid-90s heater, a cutter, changeup and curveball. His pitching arsenal allows him to get a high number of swings and misses, while not allowing a ton of free passes per start. His advanced stuff has led to early success for the former top prospect.

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Without having many struggles during the first few years of his career, Wacha is starting to experience some failure at the major league level. In 10 starts this season, Wacha is 2-5 with an ERA over 5.00. In his past three starts in particular, he has not gone past the fourth inning and has given up six or more runs in his past two outings. One key stat jumps out as a major cause of the righty’s recent skid.

The number of walks that Wacha has been giving up in 2016 has been uncharacteristic. Through two and a half seasons in the major leagues, he did not allow more than 2.9 walks per nine innings. However, to start this season, the Cardinals’ starter has given up just over 3.5 walks per nine innings. For a pitcher who has never really had an issue with control, why is this becoming a sudden problem for the 6’6” right-hander?

When a pitcher starts to struggle with giving up too many free passes, one of the first places to look should be their pitch selection. The past two seasons, when Wacha solidified a place in the Cardinals starting rotation, his pitch ratio was pretty identical. According to Fangraphs, Wacha threw his four-seam fastball around 58 percent of the time, while mixing in his cutter and off speed pitches around an equal amount. In 2016, he has been a little more reliant on his cutter and hasn’t focused on establishing his breaking ball.

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Wacha is now throwing his cutter about 18 percent of the time in comparison to his rate in 2015, when he used it around 13 percent. This has affected his curveball usage, as he is now throwing the pitch at under 10 percent for the first time since 2013, when he was mostly a fastball dominant pitcher.

Sometimes starting pitchers change their style for the better, such as Felix Hernandez, who adjusted to his decrease in velocity by putting more of an emphasis on using his off speed pitches. But when a pitcher as young as Wacha, whose velocity remains about the same, tries to change the way he pitches, even when he’s had success, it may cause some struggles.

The Cardinals rotation overall has slightly underperformed through the first month and a half of the season, with established pitchers like Adam Wainwright and free agent signee Mike Leake running into some struggles early. St. Louis needs Michael Wacha to assert himself as the future ace of this staff once again.

On the bright side, while he may be struggling right now, Wacha still has similar stuff to when he was perhaps the best pitcher on the team. He also hasn’t changed his mechanics from previous seasons. It seems that he may just be trying to find the right game plan on the mound in terms of how he should attack hitters.

Normally when pitchers struggle, it tends to be in bunches. One good start may get the Cardinals’ young ace back on track. He still has top-of-the-rotation stuff and a great track record. So while it may take him a couple of starts to work through his recent slide, St. Louis fans should feel confident that he will eventually get back to pitching at a high level. They’ll need him to if the Cardinals want to make another postseason run.

Next: Alex Gordon Frustrated with 2016 Performance

What’s your take on Wacha’s outlook for the rest of 2016? Let is know in the comments below.

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St. Louis Cardinals: What’s wrong with Michael Wacha?

By Greg Goldstein | May 27, 2016

Michael Wacha was expected to be a consistent force at the top of the St. Louis Cardinals rotation, but should a couple of poor starts have fans concerned?

More from Call to the Pen