Toronto Blue Jays' Marcus Stroman still a work-in-progress

After an impressive run of outings last September, Toronto Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman has disappointed so far in 2016. How can he get himself back on track?

Both Marcus Stroman and the Toronto Blue Jays entered the 2016 season with big expectations. It’s fair to say each got off to a slow start, but while the Jays as a whole have turned their fortunes around, their 25-year-old right-hander has continued to struggle.

At no time was this more on display than during Stroman’s start yesterday against the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards. He was lit up for seven runs on 10 hits in just 3.2 innings. It was Stroman’s briefest outing as a starting pitcher since August 15, 2014, against the Chicago White Sox, when he was chased from the game only two outs into the first inning.

Sunday’s shelling raised Stroman’s ERA to 5.23 on the season. In 15 starts, he has surrendered 56 earned runs on 106 hits (both MLB highs at the moment) over 96.1 frames. While his 6.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9 are all relatively similar to his career averages (6.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9), opponents have been racking up hits against him much more easily. His 9.9 H/9 rate exceeds his 8.9 H/9 career average, and is well above the 6.7 H/9 he posted during last year’s dominant four-outing stint (1.67 ERA, 27 IP) at the end of the regular season.

So what specifically has gone wrong for Stroman to this point in 2016? The young righty’s success in the past has often come through the effective use of his sinker. He’s increasingly relied on the pitch throughout his three seasons in the big leagues, throwing it 18.3 percent of the time in 2014, 45.8 percent in 2015 and 55.3 percent thus far in 2016, according to Brooks Baseball.

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Unfortunately for Stroman, batters are also finding his sinker a lot easier to handle of late. Opponents hit a paltry .182 against the pitch in 2014 and .214 against it last year. That batting average has jumped to a sturdy .305 this season.

Most hurlers who depend on the downward movement of their pitches naturally run into trouble when they’re leaving those pitches up in the strike zone. That’s definitely been a challenge for Stroman this year. Less than a week ago, he enjoyed one of his better outings of the season, limiting the Phillies to two runs on six hits while striking out six over seven innings. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca identified Stroman’s ability to stay on top of his sinker as the key to his success during the start.

Of course, the 5-foot-8 Stroman may be at somewhat of a disadvantage compared to most of his major league contemporaries:

“I’m the shortest pitcher in the big-leagues and I realize that I have to be very conscious of pitching down in the zone, and I am. Everything I do in between starts is to get me to that point where I can be on top of the ball. A mixture of that and a mixture of being more consistent, getting rid of that middle slider pitch and going with that bigger and harder one just felt all around better, better command, better feel, just felt more comfortable out there.”

It’s also worth keeping in mind that those lofty early season expectations may have been a bit too ambitious, especially for a pitcher who is still not far removed from a significant injury. A torn ACL nearly wiped out his entire 2015 campaign, and though the aforementioned four starts he made in September of last year were very impressive, they still represent quite a small sample size. For what it’s worth, his dominant form didn’t extend into the postseason, where he put up a 4.19 ERA across three starts.

However, Stroman could have a couple factors moving in his favor as the season progresses. While his 5.23 ERA is certainly disappointing, his FIP currently sits at a far more agreeable 3.89. Opposing hitters’ .319 BABIP also stands to regress a bit. For comparison’s sake, he contended with a .306 BABIP in 2014 and a very friendly .237 mark last year.

For now, patience is the best course for a pitcher who only just turned 25 years old. While last season’s cameo might have had Blue Jays fans thinking big and tossing around words like “ace,” Stroman still has a lot of room to learn and develop as an MLB hurler. Fortunately for Toronto, Marco Estrada (2.58 ERA), Aaron Sanchez (3.35 ERA) and J.A. Happ (3.41 ERA) have done an admirable job stabilizing the rotation.

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The Jays are a team on the rise, winning seven of their last 10 to bring them to within three games of the AL East-leading Orioles. If Stroman figures things out at some point, it will make them even more dangerous.

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