Houston Astros: Time For A.J. Reed?

Last night, like many nights before it, utility-man Marwin Gonzalez started at first base for the Houston Astros. Before long, that part of the diamond should belong to Astros top prospect A.J. Reed.

Gonzalez has started 33 games at first base this year, and the only person that has seen more time at the position in Houston is Tyler White, who is currently in Triple-A Fresno. The only other player to see time at first base outside of those two is regular third baseman Luis Valbuena who has played six games at first.

Marwin Gonzalez is a solid player, and this is in no way meant to be an indictment on him, just the way that he has been used thus far this season. Gonzalez is more of a jack of all trades, while first base typically goes to the less athletic players on the team that can hit for some power, or provide something at the plate. Gonzalez can confidently play at least four of the eight defensive positions on the diamond, and is a great weapon to have off the bench, but he just doesn’t provide enough pop to be an everyday first baseman. 

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The Astros currently rank amongst baseball’s worst when it comes to production at first. Their cumulative 86 wRC+ (14 percent below average) ranks 25th, their -0.2 WAR is also 25th, and they move up a spot for their defensive abilities with a -8.6 Def rating. The group that has been taking the reps just isn’t getting the job done, and with the Astros now at .500 after their dreadful start to the season, it may be time to look for a boost.

What better boost than the #35 prospect in baseball (and number one first base prospect) according to MLB Pipeline? Last season A.J. Reed led the world in just about every power category, finishing with 34 homers and 127 RBI while batting .340 between High-A Lancaster and Double-A Corpus Christi. This season in Triple-A Fresno hasn’t been quite as successful, but over his last ten Reed has started to turn it on, batting .333 with a pair of homers and six driven in.

The one problem for Reed, even during his hot streak, is that his strikeout rate is up just a little, going from 23.3 percent last season to 26.2 percent this year, and his walk rate has dropped from 16.44 percent to 13 percent. These aren’t huge differences, especially considering that at 23 Reed is one of the youngest players in the Pacific Coast League, but they are noticeable, and could be what has delayed a promotion up to this point. That, and that he is currently batting .262, up from .240 before his recent ten-game tear.

Adding fuel to the Reed to Houston fire were comments made by Astros GM Jeff Luhnow to the Houston Chronicle before Monday’s game. “He’s ready in my opinion.” Luhnow did go on to say that Reed is one of several players he feels could contribute right now, including Colin Moran, who has a brief call-up earlier in the year, and Jon Singleton, who has struggled with his strikeout rate in each of his stints in the big leagues.

Brian McTaggart of MLB.com was told by Luhnow that it would also take underperformance or an injury to get Reed called up at this point in time. Well, they have the underperformance part covered over the long haul, although Gonzalez and Valbuena are currently on hot streaks of their own this month. The pop isn’t there for Gonzalez, but he is batting .323 with a .391 OBP in June while Valbuena is batting .309 with a .426 OBP and two homers.

Next: Rangers Trade Deadline Preview

The timing likely is quite right for Reed to come up just yet, as he has just started to show glimpses of turning things around in Fresno, but during his recent streak he has yet to draw a walk while striking out eleven times in 42 at-bats. If the Astros twosome cools off and Reed can prove that he is ready to face Major League pitching, then the Houston Astros will bring him up as soon as they can.

Reed is a big part of their future plans, and bringing him along at the right pace (not necessarily the pace that the fans want, or fantasy owners that have him stashed were hoping for) could end up being crucial to the team’s success for years to come.