Miami Marlins: Team Chose Justin Nicolino over Noah Syndergaard?

The Miami Marlins reportedly chose Justin Nicolino over Noah Syndergaard in the 2012 blockbuster deal with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Clayton Kershaw is undeniably the best pitcher, if not the best position player, in all of baseball. The two pitchers that come the closest to nipping on Kershaw’s greatness are two youngsters in the National League East: Noah Syndergaard and Jose Fernandez.

Syndergaard owns a 1.91 ERA, a 1.70 FIP and a 3.6 fWAR in 85 innings in 2016. Fernandez owns a 2.36 ERA, a 2.04 FIP and a 3.3 fWAR in 87 2/3 innings.

This especially considering Justin Nicolino, the prospect the Marlins reportedly chose over Syndergaard, owns a career 4.51 ERA and 4.56 FIP in 129 2/3 innings in the majors across the last two seasons.

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How fun would it be to see Syndergaard and Fernandez pitch in the same rotation, eating hitters alive on back-to-back nights?

Well, it is something that almost happened, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports that the Miami Marlins had the chance to pick between Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez and Justin Nicolino, the pitching prospect they did chose.

According to sources with knowledge of trade discussions with the Blue Jays in November, 2012 — the 11-player exchange in which the Marlins salary-dumped Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle — the Marlins were given a choice of three prized prospects who had spent the previous summer at Single A Lansing.Syndergaard, Sanchez and Nicolino.Take your pick.At the time, it wasn’t the easy choice that it appears now.

Spencer is correct when he assess that the Marlins choice was not as easy as it appears now. A lot has changed for Nicolino since the time of the trade that the Marlins would not have known without hindsight.

As Spencer notes in his article, Baseball America rated Nicolino ahead of Syndergaard prior to the trade. Nicolino was ranked the number 5 prospect in the Jays system at the time, ahead of Syndergaard, who came in as the teams 7th best prospect.

John Sickels of Minor League Ball had the two closely rated as well, with Syndergaard getting the edge due to his “higher ceiling.”

Here is what Sickels had to say about Syndergaard after the 2012 season.

3) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Grade B+: I’m a believer in his stats, his size, his command, and his fastball, and I think the secondary stuff will come around. Can easily be in the A-range next year.

Compare that to what Sickels had to say about Nicolino.

4) Justin Nicolino, LHP, Grade B+: I think Syndergaard’s ultimate ceiling is a bit higher, but Nicolino isn’t far behind, and is more polished with his secondary pitches. Could also be in the A-range next year.

Nicolino was seen as the more polished prospect and the safer prospect between the two. The performance levels for both prospects were very similar, as they came up through Low-A together in 2012.

In 2012, Nicolino posted a 2.46 ERA and a 2.70 FIP in 124 1/3 innings of work. He struck out 24 percent of the hitters he faced and walked just 4.2 percent. That 24 percent strikeout rate is a far cry from the putrid 9.2 strikeout percentage he has posted so far in his major league career.

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Syndergaard, on the other hand, posted a 2.60 ERA and a 2.36 FIP in 103 2/3 innings of work. Syndergaard struck out 29 percent of the hitters he faced, but walked 7.4 percent of the hitters he faced. That 29 percent strikeout rate is similar to his career mark in the major leagues thus far.

The upside and higher ceiling that Sickels mentions for Syndergaard is apparent in those numbers. But with his higher ceiling, he was also seen as a higher-risk prospect.

Nicolino was seen as the safer prospect and the one with a higher floor at the time of the trade. And with the Miami Marlins being behind most teams when it comes to analytics, it should come as no surprise to anyone that they ended up choosing the pitcher with the lower ERA, opposed to the one with better peripherals.

Another reason the Marlins likely chose Nicolino over Syndergaard could have been because of the fact left-handers like Nicolino are harder to come by then hard throwing right-handers.

While the move looks bad now in retrospect, you cannot fault the Marlins process for selecting the safer prospect that had performed as the same levels as the superstar Syndergaard was posting in the lower minor leagues.

The bigger blunder the Miami Marlins have seemed to make with Justin Nicolino is valuing him over Andrew Heaney in the Dee Gordon trade during the 2014 off-season.

The Marlins chose Nicolino over Heaney, based on Heaney not being what they expected over a small sample size of 29 innings of pitching.

They chose Nicolino over Heaney despite Nicolino’s strikeout percentage shrinking from 24 percent from his time with the Jays to 12 percent during the 2014 season.

While Noah Syndergaard flourishes in the major leagues, Justin Nicolino is floundering in Triple-A. This will lead to many people questioning the Marlins judgement in choosing Nicolino over Syndergaard in 2012.

Next: Wheeler Suffers Another Setback

However, this is one of the few times the Marlins may have made a sound decision, but it just did not pan out for them the way they expected.