In what could be a game-changing move, Peter Gammons tweeted out early Saturday morning that the Houston Astros could be in the running to acquire Chris Archer.
Ken Rosenthal reported offers for Chris Archer. Don't rule out Houston, but for not for Alex Bregman
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) July 16, 2016
Good morning baseball world, and welcome to the trade deadline hot stove. In what figures to be an interesting next couple of weeks with a noticeable lack of starting pitching depth on the market, pitchers with years of control left could become the hottest commodity. That would mean that teams looking to acquire the services of say, a Chris Archer, would have to really ante up.
The Astros have one of the deeper farm systems in the game, and unlike a number of teams that have deep systems, are in the thick of the playoff hunt this season. They could also certainly use a boost to their starting rotation, which currently holds a 4.26 ERA, 11th in baseball. Doug Fister has been the team’s best option in the rotation this season, posting a 3.64 ERA over 18 starts.
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Right behind Fister, at least in terms of ERA, is Scott Feldman at 3.65 in five starts, being used primarily out of the bullpen this year. While that could be enough to get the job done this year, do the Astros really want to bet their season on a bounce-back year and a spot starter? It’s also worth noting that both are free agents at the end of the season, so adding a pitcher with years of control could be the smart play here.
And so we have rumors that the team could be interested in Tampa’s ace, who has struggled to a 4-13 record and a 4.68 ERA. Between 2013 and 2015 Archer posted ERAs of 3.22, 3.33 and 3.23, so either the AL East is catching up with the 27-year-old, or the first half is just an aberration.
If that’s the case, this could certainly be the time to try and acquire Archer, while his stock has taken a little bit of a hit. Signed through 2019, he gives teams three and a half years of control at what figure to be pretty affordable rates through arbitration, comparatively to the free agent market, so the cost of acquisition will be high.
While Gammons says Bregman is off the table, should he be? The answer is likely yes, but with Houston reportedly signing Yulieski Gourriel yesterday to play third base, Bregman doesn’t look to have a position to play until at least next year when outfield spots potentially open up.
It’s going to take a number of prospects for a deal of this magnitude to occur, and if Bregman is indeed out, then that most likely would mean that RHP Francis Martes (Houston’s #3 prospect) would have to be in. From there, OF Kyle Tucker (#4), 3B J.D. Davis (#11) and someone along the lines of RHP RHP Brady Rodgers (#26) or utility-man Tony Kemp (#12) could do the trick. Outfielder Jake Marisnick could be another option for the data-friendly Rays. Marisnick is like a light-hitting Ender Inciarte, who, with some consistent playing time, could prove to be a high-quality player. At the very least he would form one heck of an outfield partner with the best in the game in Kevin Kiermaier.
With Bregman included, the Astros may be able to hold onto Martes while still moving a slew of the numerous position players in their system, many of whom don’t have a place to play in Houston with Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and A.J. Reed blocking their paths.
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A deal between the Astros and Rays makes a decent amount of sense, with the Astros sending over a number of bats to help bolster a Tampa offense that ranks 26th in baseball in runs scored (347), but has a knack for developing pitching, and the Astros acquiring pitching for the short-term (and long-term) while keeping some of their top arms within the system.
The one additional caveat when it comes to any team attempting to acquire Archer is that his home ERA sits at 2.95, while his ERA on the road is 6.75. The Astros have shown that they aren’t afraid to move prospects en masse, but each time that have arguably overpaid. So if you’re a Tampa Bay fan, you’re hoping for a deal to come to fruition with Houston.