Houston Astros: Collin McHugh Due For a Big Second Half?
By Jason Burke
The Houston Astros could use just a little bit extra from their starting pitching in the second half of the season, and while Lance McCullers has shown flashes of becoming the team’s ace, Houston has been searching for someone to lead the rotation all season with Dallas Keuchel struggling. Collin McHugh could be the guy to take the reigns as the push for the postseason begins.
When you look at Collin McHugh’s traditional stats, they aren’t sexy. The former waiver wire pickup with the high spin rate racked up 19 wins a season ago, but had some of the best run support in the league throughout 2015. This season he’s 6-6 with a 4.25 ERA.
So why pick McHugh to turn things around in the second half? Because he has been BABIP’d to death, coming in with a .349 mark, 4th-highest in baseball per FanGraphs. That could be poor positioning by the Astros fielders, although that’s unlikely with how much the team uses analytics, or it could just be rotten luck. My money is on the latter in this case. Even if that figure drops just a touch, McHugh’s second half ERA could more closely resemble his FIP (3.80) down the stretch.
While his left on base percentage isn’t elite at 75.3 percent, it is the exact same as Zack Greinke’s, so at least he’s in good company. The two of them rank 41st in baseball. They also have the exact same homer run per fly ball rate of 10.7, which ranks a more respectable 33rd.
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In yesterday’s series finale with the Seattle Mariners, McHugh tossed a scoreless six frames, allowing four hits and four walks while striking out ten. The ten strikeouts matches a season-high, while the four walks are the season’s high mark as well.
This was also the first start that McHugh didn’t allow a run since April 11 against Kansas City, which was the start following his first outing against the New York Yankees in which he lasted just one-third of an inning, giving up six runs, five earned. In fact, outside of that start, McHugh has posted a 3.86 ERA, which is well below the median earned run average in the American League, as opposed to a 4.25 ERA, which is almost precisely the average (4.26).
If he had collected an extra one-third of an inning in his July 3 start against the White Sox, McHugh would be riding a streak of six straight quality starts, but his pitch count (103) did him in on that day. McHugh’s strikeout rate has also taken a bump over last year’s rate (8.3 to 7.6), and more strikeouts means more pitches are necessary. He’s going to get burned by the long ball on occasion, sporting a 1.1 home runs per nine innings rate, but if he can keep the bases cleared before a blast more often than not, the offense should have plenty of firepower to collect some wins for their club in the second half.
Next: Astros Poised For Second-Half Run
McHugh isn’t going to challenge for the Cy Young award like he did last year, finishing eighth, but the trio of himself, McCullers and Doug Fister could prove to be a formidable group if all three right-handers are firing on all cylinders. With Fister likely gone after the season and McCullers experiencing his first full season in the big leagues, it could be up to McHugh to lead the charge towards the playoffs.