Jul 24, 2016; Cooperstown, NY, USA; Hall of Fame Inductee Mike Piazza (L) and Hall of Fame Inductee Ken Griffey Jr. (R) pose with their Hall of Fame plaques during the 2016 MLB baseball hall of fame induction ceremony at Clark Sports Center. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
2016’s Baseball Hall of Fame inductees Ken Griffey, Jr. and Mike Piazza have now been enshrined. Who could join them in Cooperstown next year?
The speeches of new Baseball Hall of Famers Ken Griffey, Jr. and Mike Piazza have been entered into the annals of the game, their plaques have been hung among those of the other legends of the national pastime, and the enormous crowds have receded from the small hamlet of Cooperstown. Another induction weekend has come to a close, so naturally the time has come to begin speculating about next year’s Hall of Fame class.
While Griffey was a slam dunk, garnering the highest percentage of votes ever in just his first year on the ballot, there does not seem to be another sure-fire name in the mix for the 2017 class. A player must be named on 75 percent of the ballots cast by qualified members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
In addition to Piazza and Griffey, a trio of players narrowly missed out in 2016, and a handful of others gained momentum in the voting. Add in a new slate of first time eligible performers, and there are any number of outcomes that could take place. Over the past five years, only ten players have reached the 75 percent voting threshold, an average of two new inductees per year (not including former managers and those voted in by the Eras Committees):
There’s no sure thing for the Hall in 2017, but a whole lot of fun possibilities. Just who may be following in Griffey’s and Piazza’s footsteps and find baseball immortality a year from now?
The Hall of Fame cases for each of Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Trevor Hoffman are varied, and all three narrowly missed out on election this go around. Each has a good chance of being among those enshrined in 2017.
Bagwell fell just 15 votes shy this year, his sixth on the ballot, and is likely the victim of the era in which he played. Though no evidence of PED use has ever linked the former Houston Astros first baseman to artificial enhancement, just about every player from the 1990s and early 2000s tends to be guilty until proven innocent. Bagwell slashed .297/.408/.540 in his 15 seasons, good for a career OPS+ mark of 149 and 79.6 bWAR. He currently sits tied for 38th all-time with 449 home runs, drove in over 1,500 runs, was the unanimous National League Most Valuable Player in 1994, and boasts Gray Ink, Hall of Fame Monitor, and Hall of Fame Standards rankings that bode well for induction.
The former Montreal Expos great Raines, who will be in his tenth and final year on the regular ballot, appears to have had his candidacy suffer from comparison to Rickey Henderson, his contemporary and competition for the title of greatest leadoff hitter of his generation. Raines had a career slash line of .294/.385/.425, good for a 123 OPS+ and 69.1 bWAR in 23 seasons, and ranks fifth all-time with 808 stolen bases. The Rock missed out on election in 2016 by just 23 votes, and while his Hall of Fame metric scores are slightly below average, he could well join Andre Dawson and the late Gary Carter as the third player to be inducted in an Expos cap.
Unlike Bagwell and Raines, Hoffman was a newcomer to the ballot, and garnered 67.3 percent in the voting, falling 34 votes short. A beneficiary of former closers who have reached the Hall in the recent past, Hoffman spent 18 years in the big leagues and sits second all-time in saves, just behind Mariano Rivera, with 601. Known for his devastating changeup, he was seven times an All-Star and has a Hall of Fame Standards ranking that points to his future in Cooperstown.
Let’s get this out of the way right off the top: Curt Schilling’s chances of being elected to the Hall of Fame would be greatly improved if he stopped blogging, deleted his Facebook account and stayed out of the public eye for a little while. The incendiary statements he has made, and that got him fired from ESPN in April, will only hinder the voters’ perceptions of him and hold him back from being judged by his playing career.
And it was a good career. In 18 full big league seasons, Schilling put up a 3.46 ERA in nearly 3,300 innings, posted an ERA+ of 127 and an 80.7 bWAR, and amassed 3,116 strikeouts, good for 15th all-time. He was a three-time World Champion, six-time All-Star, and has favorable Gray Ink and Hall of Fame Monitor rankings. This will be Schilling’s fifth year on the ballot, as he came 100 votes short for the 2016 class (52.3 percent), and while he isn’t likely to make the 2017 class, either, should get in eventually.
Mike Mussina, a contemporary of Schilling’s, also seems likely to get into the Hall eventually, as he has progressed from just over 20 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot to 43 percent in his third. Moose was a six-time All-Star and a seven-time Gold Glove Award winner, with a lifetime ERA+ of 123 and 82.7 bWAR in 18 seasons. He came up just shy of the magic numbers in strikeouts (2,813) and wins (270) during his playing days, but his Gray Ink, Hall of Fame Monitor, and Hall of Fame Standards rankings all point to him someday reaching Cooperstown, though it may take a few more tries.
By on-field metrics, there is no denying that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are Hall of Fame worthy. Two of the top eight in baseball history in bWAR, the pair would have been surefire first-ballot selections if not for their sordid pasts in connection with PED use.
Bonds is the all-time home run king with 762 bombs in his 22-year career, the single-season record hold with the 73 homers he hit in 2001, and ranks behind only Babe Ruth, Cy Young and Walter Johnson with a bWAR of 162.4. He had a career slash line of .298/.444/.607, with a 1.051 OPS and 182 OPS+, made the All-Star team 14 times, won 12 Silver Sluggers and eight Gold Gloves, and was named NL MVP an astounding seven times.
Legal troubles stemming from the BALCO case and his subsequent conviction in federal district court for obstruction of justice, coupled with his mercurial demeanor and often rough treatment of the press, has kept Bonds shut out of the Hall of Fame in his first four years of eligibility. In 2016, he appeared on 44.3 percent of ballots, and should eventually be inducted. The BBWAA voters, however, appear determined to make him wait for it.
Similarly, Clemens had as storied a career in his 24 years on the mound as any pitcher in the history of the game. He checks off the glamour numbers with 354 wins and 4,672 strikeouts, posted an ERA+ of 143, won the Cy Young award seven times, and claimed the 1986 AL MVP award.
Clemens’ bWAR of 140.3 is eighth in history, and all of his Hall of Fame metrics rankings are off the charts, yet he appeared on just over 45 percent of ballots in his fourth year of eligibility. Much like Bonds, the cloud of PED use and an outspoken nature may force Clemens to wait to take his place in Cooperstown. But as one of the greatest pitchers statistically of all-time, it is likely he too will make it eventually.
Among those making their first appearance on Hall of Fame ballots for the 2017 class, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Ivan Rodriguez are the clear headliners. Each put together a long, statistically impressive career, though each also has his flaws, and it would seem a long shot that any one of them will make it to the Hall on his first try.
Guerrero’s 449 career home runs match the number of Bagwell, and he slashed .318/.379/.553 in his 16 professional seasons, good for an OPS of .931, an OPS+ of 140, and 59.3 bWAR. He finished with just 2,600 hits and 1,500 RBIs, went to nine All-Star Games, won eight Silver Sluggers, and was named the AL MVP in 2004. His Black Ink, Hall of Fame Monitor, and Hall of Fame Standards rankings all point to his eventual induction, but it will likely take a few years.
The numbers for Ramirez are even more impressive, and were it not once again for the cloud of PEDs, baseball would have Manny being Manny in Cooperstown on his first try. In parts of 19 seasons in the big leagues, Ramirez slashed .312/.411/.585, good for a .996 OPS and 154 OPS+, and amassed a 69.2 bWAR total. His 555 career home runs place 15th on the all-time list and his 1,831 RBIs are 18th, and his Hall of Fame metrics rankings are all consistent with enshrinement.
Just as PEDs will likely keep Ramirez out of the Hall on the first try, so to will they hinder the chances of Rodriguez. The best defensive catcher of his generation, and just a notch below Piazza offensively, Pudge slashed .296/.334/.464 over a 21-year career, with a 106 OPS+ and 68.4 bWAR. A 14-time All-Star with 13 Gold Gloves, seven Silver Sluggers, and the 1999 AL MVP award, Rodriguez is the all-time leader in games behind the plate, having caught 2,427 of them, and hits as a catcher with 2,749. His Hall of Fame Monitor and Hall of Fame Standards rankings point to his making the Hall eventually, but likely not on his first ballot.
For the hopefuls on the ballot that do not gain induction in 2017, the competition will only get stiffer in the years ahead, as several potential first-ballot Hall of Famers will become eligible. Among those who will be up for enshrinement in 2018, 2019 and 2020:
Rivera and Jeter are shoo-ins to be first-ballot inductees, as the two Yankee greats were among the most iconic players of their generation. In addition to the five world championships the two shared in New York, Rivera is the game’s all-time leader in both saves (652) and ERA+ (205), while Jeter’s 3,465 hits are sixth on the career list.
Jones currently occupies the 33rd spot on the all-time home run list with 468, and his career 85.0 bWAR is 31st all-time among position players. The 1999 NL MVP blows away the Gray Ink, Hall of Fame Monitor, and Hall of Fame Standards metrics.
The real question in the next few years will be Thome, who despite being seventh all-time with 612 homers, will likely face the same issues as Bagwell, Bonds and Ramirez due to the PED era. While his Hall of Fame Monitor and Hall of Standards rankings and 72.9 career bWAR certainly appear Hall worthy, he may have to wait a few years before making it to Cooperstown.
Hall of Fame ballots are released to voting BBWAA members in November, with results announced in January. That means at least another six months of speculating who will join Griffey, Piazza and the other 300+ players recognized in Cooperstown.
