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Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians lead MiLB notes

By Brody Hilgenkamp |
Jul 10, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; World infielder Alex Bregman (2) slides into third base with a triple past World infielder Yandy Diaz (left) in the first inning during the All Star Game futures baseball game at PetCo Park. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 10, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; World infielder Alex Bregman (2) slides into third base with a triple past World infielder Yandy Diaz (left) in the first inning during the All Star Game futures baseball game at PetCo Park. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

In part one of this week’s minor league notes, an unheralded Cleveland Indians prospect is on a hot streak and two Los Angeles Dodgers prospects keep raking in the Texas League.

This week’s minor league notes column will be split into two parts. Today’s portion will focus on Double- and Triple-A, and tomorrow Class A Advanced and Single-A will be tackled.

Triple-A

Yandy Diaz, third baseman, Cleveland Indians

The hottest news coming out of the Indians’ farm system was the promotion of outfielders Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer to Triple-A, but Diaz has been the system’s hottest hitter. Entering Tuesday’s action, Diaz was on a 14-game hitting streak and had multiple hits in four straight. Over that span he was hitting .473 with a .552 on-base percentage and slugging .673.

The current hot stretch is the boiling point of Diaz’s season. He started the season in Double-A but quickly earned a promotion after amassing a .445 OBP through 26 games. In 2015, also at Double-A, he slashed .315/.412/.408, so the promotion to Triple-A was warranted.

He was a decently productive hitter once he was promoted, but as the weather has gotten hotter, so has Diaz. Since June 9, Diaz has a 199 weighted runs created plus (wRC+).  Part of that is fueled by an otherworldly .449 batting average on balls in play—before the promotion, he had a career .329 BABIP—but he’s also drawing more walks (13.6 BB%) than he is strikeouts (11.9 K%) over that span.

Jose Berrios, pitcher, Minnesota Twins

This season, Berrios is learning how to bounce back from disappointment. He got off to a really hot start to 2016, got promoted to the majors, got knocked around for a month and then was sent back to Triple-A. For one of the top pitching prospects in the game, it was a rough way to start what could’ve been another breakthrough year.

From May 21, his first start since being sent down, through June 11, Berrios was not pitching like the top-20 prospect he is. Over that span he had a 2.58 strikeout-to-walk ratio, 4.99 earned run average and 3.98 Fielding Independent Pitching. Then he turned it around, posting a 4.00 K/BB, 1.09 ERA and 2.41 FIP since June 17.

The reason he struggled immediately after being sent down has two parts. The first is luck due to a fluctuating BABIP: over the first five starts opposing hitters had a .306 BABIP; over the next seven opponents hit .211. The other reason is he cut down on self-inflicting damage in the form of walks. Over the first five starts he walked 3.52 batters per nine innings but just 2.36 over his next seven starts.

Double-A

Ronald Herrera, pitcher, New York Yankees

Sunday’s start was one of the few in which Herrera didn’t have bad luck target him—Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Jacob Faria can definitely relate. Herrera pitched six innings and allowed one run on six hits, two walks and six strikeouts. The reason this start was significant is because Herrera has been getting beat around this season, but a lot of his numbers suggest he should be pitching like this more often.

Entering Tuesday, Herrera had the third largest ERA-FIP split in the Eastern League (1.10) based on a 4.13 ERA but 3.03 FIP. It doesn’t matter which league it is, there is a big difference between a 4.13 pitcher and a 3.03 pitcher. So which one is Herrera?

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Break it down further, and it looks like he’s the latter. His 3.75 K/BB (sixth in the EL) and 0.50 home runs per nine innings (16th) suggest he’s not hurting himself. So does the fact that opposing hitters are making contact against him on 76.2 percent of swings, more than four points below average. So it must be something else.

Herrera has allowed a .344 BABIP, which is the sixth highest in the league. Considering that entering the 2016 season he had a career .316 BABIP against, some of the difference between his ERA and FIP can be attributed to bad luck.

Alex Verdugo, outfielder, and Willie Calhoun, second baseman, Los Angeles Dodgers

These two hitters have the third and fourth lowest strikeout rates in the Southern League entering Tuesday at 12.6 and 13.2 percent, respectively. Only one-tenth of a percentage point separates the two in walk rate, so they clearly have similar strike zone awareness. But their batted balls are doing very different things.

The biggest difference is that more of Calhoun’s are going over the fence. He’s tied for the league lead in home runs (22) and is third in isolated power (.263). While his fly ball and line drive rates are close to league average, he’s making those fly balls count: according to StatCorner, the league average for home runs per batted ball in the air is 6.7 percent, but Calhoun is hitting 15.3 percent of those balls for home runs.

Where Calhoun gets hurt is infield popups. Calhoun has hit 13.5 percent of his batted balls in this manner while the league average is 7.1 percent.

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Verdugo, on the other hand, is much more inclined to hit ground balls and line drives. His ground ball rate is 5.6 points higher than Calhoun’s and his line drive rate is almost three points higher. (Naturally, he doesn’t pop up nearly as much, either). That approach is why Verdugo’s BABIP is 58 points higher than Calhoun’s and why his wRC+ (126) compares favorably to Calhoun’s (132).

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