MLB Payroll Analyis and Offseason Preview: St. Louis Cardinals
With the offseason approaching in less than two months, and all teams rosters mostly settled for the year, I thought it would be a good time to start looking at the payroll situation for each MLB team. We start the series off with the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Cardinals are currently out of playoff position, one game behind the New York Mets, and two behind the San Francisco Giants. They have already lost their chance at the division, as the Chicago Cubs recently clinched with an astonishing lead of 17.5 games.
Still, St. Louis has a good chance to make to make its 6th consecutive playoff appearance if it can leapfrog either the Giants of Mets.
It has been a bit of a strange season for the Cardinals, as they have been plagued by many injuries all over the diamond. Shortstop Jhonny Peralta went down in spring training and was replaced by Aledmys Diaz, who went on to be an All-Star. Then, when Diaz went down in early August, Jedd Gyorko and Greg Garcia filled in seamlessly. Matt Holliday also has been out for an extended period of time, but has been replaced by Brandon Moss who has hit even better than Holliday.
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The problem this season has actually been the healthy starting pitching. Last year, Cardinals starters easily led the league with a 2.99 ERA. This number was the best in the MLB since the Phillies in 2011. This year, they have slipped to 14th with a 4.29 ERA. Disappointing seasons by Michael Wacha, Mike Leake, and Jaime Garcia, as well as the offseason loss of John Lackey, has left Carlos Martinez as the only productive member of the rotation left from last year.
As a bullpen, the Cards have been decent as closer Trevor Rosenthal’s troubles have been remedied by the emergence of “The Final Boss”, Seung-hwan Oh. The Korean reliever has converted to closer and has continued to pitch well while throwing over 70 innings out of the pen already.
Without further adieu, let’s look at how the Cardinals payroll looks like for the future. We’ll start with looking at the teams upcoming free agents.
Note: Only players on 40-man roster/60-day DL with MLB experience accounted for. Players who are not on a 40-man, or on a 40-man without MLB experience have not had their service clocks started.
Next: Upcoming Free Agents
Upcoming Free Agents
| Player | 2016 Salary ($) | (WAR), Stats |
| 1B/OF Brandon Moss | 8.25 M | (1.5), .238/.314/.512, 26 HR |
| RP Jordan Walden | 3.68 M | None, Injured |
| P Jerome Williams | 507 K | (-0.3), 9 G, 6.46 ERA |
| Totals | 12.50 M | – |
The team doesn’t have many traditional free agents this offseason. Williams is a journeyman swingman who has not been effective in very limited work. He will be let go without much of a fight.
Walden is an interesting case. He has been an elite bullpen arm when he is healthy. In 222 career innings, he holds an even 3.00 ERA with 10.8 K/9. After being traded to St. Louis as a part of the Jason Heyward deal, Walden has only thrown in 12 games with the Cardinals. Though he only gave up one run, his durability is a huge concern. He has been unable to make it on the field in 2016 thus far. He injured his bicep in the spring and then later suffered a setback. Curiously, it was reported that he did not report to his next rehab assignment. If it is true that he ditched his rehab, it is safe to say that he will not be back with the Cardinals. Even if that report is false, Walden will only be back on a one-year prove it deal worth maybe a few million.
The last free agent would be Moss, who has impressed this year with 26 home runs after a disappointing 2015. Whether or not he gets the qualifying offer (if it remains in the CBA) will be the debate this offseason. Either way, it would be a surprise for the Cardinals to resign him to any sort of big deal as they have a similar player in Matt Adams.
Next: Two Tough Team Options
Options
| Player | 2016 Salary ($) | 2017 Option ($) | (WAR), Stats |
| OF Matt Holliday | 17 M | 17 M, Team | (0.5), .242/.318/.450, 19 HR |
| SP Jaime Garcia | 11.5 M | 12 M, Team | (1.3), 29 G, 4.65 ERA |
| Totals | 28.5 M | 29 M | – |
Two interesting options for the Cards, neither with an easy answer. The team may want Matt Holliday back, but most likely not at 17 million. The easy decision is to decline the option and try to resign him to a more team friendly deal, possibly with more years. With Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty penciled in in the outfield, there is only one spot left.
If St. Louis wants to go young, they can go with Jeremy Hazelbaker and Tommy Pham in left field in 2017. The previously mentioned Brandon Moss could also play some left if he is resigned. But, the Cardinals seem to like Holliday and his veteran leadership, so he may be back with a starting role next year. After all, depth in the outfield is never a bad thing.
Garcia is even more interesting. After an injury plagued, yet terrific season in 2015, Garcia finally stayed healthy this year. But, he struggled throughout and was recently demoted to the bullpen. With the dearth of starting pitching in free agency, Garcia would be one of the top arms on the market if his deal were to be declined. With that in mind, St. Louis will accept the option and see if Garcia can get back to form in 2017. If not, next year will be his last at Busch stadium.
Next: Who's Already on the Payroll?
Under Contract
| Player | 2016 Salary ($) | 2017 Salary ($) | Beyond ($) | (WAR), Stats |
| SP Adam Wainwright | 19.5 M | 19.5 M | 19.5 M 2018 | (3.1), 30 G, 4.51 ERA |
| C Yadier Molina | 14.2 M | 14.2 M | 15 M 2018 (MO) | (2.0), .290/.344/.406, 41 XBH |
| IF Jhonny Peralta | 12.5 M | 10 M | FA | (-0.8), .243/.287/.397, 7 HR |
| SP Mike Leake | 12 M | 15 M | 48 M to 2020, 18 M MO 2021 | (2.1), 27 G, 4.60 ERA |
| SP Lance Lynn | 7.5 M | 7.5 M | FA | None, Injured |
| IF Matt Carpenter | 6.5 M | 10 M | 28.5 M to 2019, 18.5 M CO 2020 | (3.2), .272/.384/.513, 58 XBH |
| RP Zach Duke | 5 M | 5.5 M | FA | (0.3), 20 G, 1.47 ERA* |
| RP Seung-hwan Oh | 5 M | 6 M | FA | (2.5), 70 G, 1.87 ERA |
| IF Jedd Gyorko | 4 M | 6 M | 22 M to 2019, 13 M CO 2020 | (2.3), .241/.303/.487, 26 HR |
| RP Jonathan Broxton | 3.75 M | 3.75 M | FA | (0.2), 59 G, 4.25 ERA |
| C Brayan Pena | 2.5 M | 2.5 M | FA | (-0.1), 6 G, .200 AVG |
| SS Aledmys Diaz | 2.5 M | 2.5 M | FA | (2.6), .313/.379/.525, AS |
| IF Kolten Wong | 1.25 M | 2.5 M | 21.75 M to 2020, 12.5 CO 2021 | (0.9), .237/.327/.346, 5 HR |
| Totals | 96.2 M | 104.7 M | 139.75 M (180.75 M w/options) | – |
*Discounts stats with White Sox
MO= Mutual Option
CO= Club Option
A lot of good players under contract, and under reasonable prices. The only bad deal may be Mike Leake. But, still at 28 years old, he still has plenty of time to right the ship. He was signed this offseason to take the place of the older John Lackey, and has been unsuccessful thus far. From 2013-2015, Leake started an impressive 94 games pitching to a 3.59 ERA. He has struggled so far with a 4.60 ERA. There is reason to expect a bounce back as he leads the National League in BB/9 with a stellar 1.4.
Deals for core pieces like Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, and Yadier Molina are in place and below market value, giving the Cardinals a chance for contention for the years to come. The team did well to lock up Carpenter and Wong for the rest of the decade. They were able to give the infielders some extra money during their controllable years, while also getting them at a discount for their first couple free agent eligible seasons. Always a good move for a front office.
Upcoming free agents after 2017 include Jhonny Peralta, Lance Lynn, and Seung-hwan Oh, among others. Peralta will most likely be gone due to the younger depth in the infield surrounding him. Lynn is an interesting case as he should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2017. A former All-Star, Lynn is somewhat of a forgotten star due to his surgery, as he has pitched to a 3.37 ERA in 150 career games. Oh has been a godsend for the Cardinals this year and will get a big deal after 2017 if he is able to replicate his production next season. Equipped with the best nickname in baseball, The Final Boss will be 35 when he goes into free agency for the first time after next year.
Next: Seven Players Going Through Arbitration
Team Control: Arbitration
| Player | 2016 Salary ($) | (YR)2017 Estimation | (WAR), Stats |
| RP Trevor Rosenthal | 5.6 M | (2) 5.8 M | (0.1), 40 G, 5.13 ERA |
| 1B Matt Adams | 1.65 M | (2) 4.5 M | (0.2), .244/.297/.452, 14 HR |
| RP Seth Maness | 1.4 M | (2) Non-Tender | (0.1), 29 G, 3.41 ERA |
| SP Carlos Martinez | 507 K | (1) 5.0 M | (2.9), 28 G, 3.15 ERA |
| SP Michael Wacha | 507 K | (1) 5.5 M | (2.1), 24 G, 4.62 ERA |
| RP Kevin Siegrist | 507 K | (1) 2.5 M | (0.1), 61 G, 2.91 ERA |
| RP Tyler Lyons | 507 K | (1) 1.2 M | (0), 30 G, 3.38 ERA |
| Totals | 10.93 M | 24.5 M | – |
The arbitration cases this year are hard to figure out. Rosenthal made a very impressive $5.6 million in his first trip through the process. He has taken a large step back this year and most likely won’t see a big raise. A couple hundred thousand should be expected, as anything over six million would be surprising. These last few weeks could be a big determining factor as to how much he gets. If he is able to have a big impact on the playoff chase, he could get a nice little raise because of it. After all, he continues to put up stellar strikeout numbers.
Matt Adams will get a nice raise, as he only made $1.65 million in his first trip after an injury-shortened 2015. He should climb up to at least four million after slugging 14 home runs thus far. Seth Maness recently underwent Tommy John surgery and should be out for the entire 2017 season. He will most likely be non tendered, as paying him upwards of a million dollars is most likely not worth it just to keep him controllable for 2018.
Star pitchers Martinez and Wacha will surely get a nice payday in their first trip in arbitration, and relievers Siegrist and Lyons should get their first million dollar salaries as well.
Next: Nothing Better Than Cheap Control
Team Control: Pre-Arbitration
| Player | (WAR), Stats | Est. Year of 1st ARB |
| OF Randal Grichuk | (1.5), .242/.292/.494, 22 HR | 2018 |
| OF Stephen Piscotty | (2.7), .276/.345/.466, 21 HR | 2019 |
| OF Tommy Pham | (0.1), .221/.326/.450, 9 HR | 2019 |
| IF Greg Garcia | (1.8), .266/.385/.367, 35 BB, 45 K | 2018 |
| OF Jeremy Hazelbaker | (0.1), .237/.300/.489, 12 HR | 2019 |
| SP Luke Weaver | (0.7), 6 G, 3.48 ERA | 2019-20 |
| P Alex Reyes | (0.6), 9 G, 1.29 ERA | 2019-20 |
| C Alberto Rosario | (-0.2), .194 AVG, 36 AB | 2019-20 |
| C Carson Kelly | (0), 1-6, 2B, RBI | 2019-20 |
| RP Matt Bowman | (0.5), 53 G, 3.84 ERA | 2019 |
| RP Miguel Socolovich | (0),10 G, 2.77 ERA | 2019-20 |
| RP Mike Mayers | (-0.4), 3 G, 15 ER | 2019-20 |
| RP Sam Tuivailala | (0), 10 G, 7.36 ERA | 2019-20 |
| P Tim Cooney | None, Injured | 2019-20 |
| P Marco Gonzales | None, Injured | 2019 |
| RP Dean Kiekhefer | (0), 18 G, 5.17 ERA | 2019-20 |
| OF Jose Martinez | (0), 1-3, RBI | 2019-20 |
| Totals |
| – |
Note: 507K is league minimum for years 0-3 in the league.
Many more good players under team control for St. Louis. Starting outfielders Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty being available for the league minimum is a huge boon to the Cardinals payroll.
They also have a couple of nice pitchers who will be making the league minimum over the next few years. Luke Weaver has started six games since being brought up and has continued the momentum he built in the minors when he pitched to an amazing 1.30 ERA. He obviously has not been as good, but has provided the Redbirds much needed rotation stability. Alex Reyes is a top prospect and was brought up to serve in the bullpen. After dominating in a handful of games there, he was promoted to the rotation in place of the incumbent Jaime Garcia.
Fellow pitchers Tim Cooney and Marco Gonzales both have little MLB experience, but were top prospects themselves before their injuries. If one or both can return effectively next season, the Cardinals may have the incredible rotation depth and talent they had in 2015.
Interestingly, Grichuk is the only player eligible for arbitration after 2017, as the rest of the players on the list will still be under renewable team control for at least the next two seasons.
Next: So What's The Cards Plan This Offseason?
Final Analysis
| Under Contract | With ARB, TC, and Option Predictions | 2016 payroll | 2017 payroll EST |
| $104.7 M | $150.33 M | $166.97 M | $180 M |
With an estimated $150 million in salary without taking into account possible Brandon Moss or Matt Holliday contracts, the Cardinals are not in great shape to make a big move in free agency. But, with the strongest free agents as outfielders and catchers, St. Louis would not be involved anyway.
With a lot of starting pitching depth already, the Cards will not chase a starter on the market this November. Instead, they can look to acquire one of the top relief arms available. After being tortured by Aroldis Chapman for years, maybe they will give him $70-80 million to pitch at Busch Stadium. Or, maybe Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon will move to St. Louis.
If the Cardinals are looking to make a big splash, a closer will be the one. Even the chances of this are low as the National League Central stalwarts are usually not very active in free agency. Looking at the current roster, very few key contributors were acquired as free agents. Mike Leake is one example, and that has not worked out thus far.
Next: Orioles and Boras to discuss contract extension for Matt Wieters
St. Louis may look at some buy-low candidates, but will mostly be inactive in the free agency market. With a strong young core, the Cardinals should contend for a playoff spot not only this year and next, but for years to come.
All contract info found on spotrac.com