MLB: Ten Players Who Have Surprised With Their Home Run Power

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With 5,447 home runs this year, the 2016 season is already fifth all-time in single season long balls dating back to MLB’s origins in 1872. Many big-time home run hitters are contributing to the total, but who are the others that have increased their home run totals by ridiculous margins?

The MLB home run leaderboard does not exactly boast the same names baseball fans are accustomed to seeing year in and year out. At the same time, current leader Mark Trumbo is a prolific power hitter who has hit 30+ home runs twice before, with another year of 29. Behind Trumbo is Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, who has never hit 30+ homers before, but did have 28 in 2015.

Beyond those two surprises are familiar names Edwin Encarnacion, Nelson Cruz, and Nolan Arenado. Looking a little further, names like David Ortiz, Chris Davis, Todd Frazier, Miguel Cabrera, and Evan Longoria are there to help ease us baseball fans confusion after seeing Trumbo and Dozier at top.

Even with the regulars at the top, the home runs must be coming from somewhere else. After all, MLB cannot be on pace to top 2015’s home run total by 748 just with the usual culprits smashing baseballs over the fences. There have been players coming out of nowhere to hit double-digit dingers, as well as everyday players increasing their power by insane amounts this season.

The increase in homers this season has been much chronicled, even by me, but let’s take a look at the top 10 MLB players who have surprised the baseball world with their home run totals so far in 2016. List is ranked by how big of a surprise/how impressive the power increase has been.

Honorable Mentions: Adam Duvall, 33 (CIN) and Ryan Schimpf, 19 (SD)

With 33 and 19 home runs respectively, Duvall and Schimpf have been putting on a show for their last-place clubs. The reason they do not get a spot on the regular list is because they both have slugged home run balls in the minors.

Duvall hit 35 combined homers last season, 30 in AAA, and five in the big leagues. As the secondary piece to the Mike Leake deal, Duvall went from the Giants to the Reds in late July last season. As an everyday player for the first time in the big leagues, the slugging outfielder has kept right on track with his home run hitting ways. His OBP and AVG have taken a slight hit while he adjusts to MLB pitching, but that is to be expected. Duvall has been one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dim season in Cincinnati.

Schimpf has accumulated 128 minor league big flys since 2009, but has been especially inept at hitting the long ball lately with 24, 23, and 15 in the minors from 2014-2016 respectively.

Since debuting with the Padres, Schimpf has slugged 19 home runs in half a game’s worth of time. As a 28-year-old rookie, the power totals are very shocking, but once you look at his minor league stats, it should come as no surprise.

10. Sean Rodriguez: 18 (PIT)

In 1,865 career at bats prior to 2016, the Pirates utility man hit 49 career home runs, good for one per 38.06 AB. This year, Rodriguez has hit 18 long ones in part time duty. With 289 AB, his HR/AB has improved to 16.06.

An upcoming free agent, Rodriguez has considerably improved his stock in his walk year, and should receive a ton of interest on the open market. The Pirates have been rumored to be making a push to resign him before he can negotiate with other teams. Without an easy starting spot on the Pirates, the fiery infielder may be able to find a better opportunity during free agency.

Whether or not he is able to replicate his power remains to be seen, as he had never before topped 12 home runs in his eight years prior to 2016. With 30 home runs in the minors in 2009, and 29 in 2006, the power did not come from nowhere. But most MLB players do not just start hitting home runs out of nowhere which begs the question: where was this power the past eight years in the big leagues?

With a career high HR/FB of 25.7 percent, the power surge may seem like a fluke. At the same time, Rodriguez has a career high hard-hit percentage of 43.2 percent, evidence that this home run showing is sustainable.

9. Mike Napoli: 34 (CLE)

One of the better known players on the list, Napoli is known throughout the league as a power hitter. He currently bats fourth on the AL Central winning Cleveland Indians. So then why is he included?

With a combined 82 home runs from 2012-2015, Napoli had seasons ranging from 17-24 long balls. With hitters like Lucas Duda and Colby Rasmus ahead of him in these rankings, Napoli was not exactly a premier home run hitter. This year has been a different story as the former catcher has slugged 34 round trippers.

As a 34-year-old MLB veteran, it was assumed Napoli’s best days were behind him. Instead, the right hander has put up career best home run numbers with a slash line similar to his earlier years in Anaheim.

An upcoming free agent, the current Indian should see much more interest than he saw this past offseason when he settled for a one year deal worth $7 million in mid-January. He should receive some multi-year offers, coming at between $10-15 million annually. Though home runs are not at a premium like they have been in years past, power is a valuable asset. Add in Napoli’s experience and leadership and you have a very impactful hitter.

8. Freddy Galvis: 20 (PHI)

20 home runs in a full season’s worth of at-bats isn’t all that impressive. But for a player with exactly 20 in his career in over 1,000 AB prior to the year, it is pretty special. Galvis already has 13 more long balls than he did last year, with about the same number of AB. He has raised his slugging percentage by 60 points and has also increased his doubles total by 11 thus far.

With top prospect J.P. Crawford knocking on the door, Galvis had to take a step up this year to stay in the Phillies plans. He did take that step up, but it may not have been enough. A solid fielder at a premier defensive position, Galvis still has never seen his OPS reach .700. Employing even the most outstanding fielders at a spot every day without them contributing to the lineup is tough to do. Galvis will have to continue to build upon this power surge if he wants to keep an everyday job in MLB.

Nonetheless, his power hitting truly came out of the blue, as he only hit 27 home runs in a very large sample of 2,399 AB in the minor leagues. All signs point to the 20 HR this year being a fluke, but crazier things have happened, and Galvis could possibly keep up the pace next year and beyond.

7. Khris Davis: 40 (OAK)

With a nickname of “Krush Davis”, it is quite obvious the man is known for his power. With some nice home run seasons in a hitters park in Milwaukee, Davis was a solid middle of the order hitter, but nothing special. With 22 HR in 2014 and 27 HR in 2015, Davis’s numbers were trending up. Then, he was traded to where hitters go to die: Oakland. With 149 home runs at the Coliseum, the A’s home stadium currently ranks 14th in the AL in home runs, one ahead of Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City. In Milwaukee, there have been 198 home runs at Miller Park.

Davis hasn’t noticed the different, as he has slugged a career high 40 bombs, with 19 of them coming at home. Never before hitting 30 home runs, it could have easily been assumed that Davis would struggle to amass 20 dingers in his new environment. Ranking sixth in MLB in home runs, the left fielder has had a very special season as he is one RBI away from 100. This has been much needed on an Athletics team lacking positives.

Unless something crazy happens, Davis will become the first A’s player since Jason Giambi in 2000 to finish in the top 10 in MLB in HR.

6. Tommy Joseph: 21 (PHI)

National League home run leader Nolan Arenado has hit an impressive 40 home runs in 594 AB, good for 14.85 AB/HR. Phillies rookie Tommy Joseph has hit 21 long balls in 309 AB, good for a better 14.71 AB/HR. Not to say Joseph is better, but the home run numbers are similar. If extrapolated to a full season, Joseph could be a 40 home run hitter, a very rare feat for any hitter, let alone a first year player.

With Ryan Howard departing after the year (another player with impressive AB/HR totals), the first base job should be strictly for Joseph heading into 2016. As a 25-year-old rookie, the first baseman battled injuries all throughout his minor league career. From 2013-2015, Joseph only appeared in 121 games in the minors, derailing the development of the former second round pick. With a strong start at Triple A, Joseph found himself in the majors in May and has not looked back.

Though his OBP of .309 needs to improve, his .511 SLG is impressive enough to warrant a future full time job. With the help of players like Joseph and Galvis, the Phillies will return to prominence before long.

5. Gary Sanchez: 20 (NYY)

The final and most impressive rookie on the list, Sanchez has put on a show in his first prolonged taste of the big leagues. A top prospect for what seems to have been 25 years, Sanchez finally got promoted and then proceeded to make sure he would never go back to the minors again. His 20 long balls in 187 AB are good for 9.35 AB/HR, shattering the numbers of Joseph and Arenado, and shattering anyone else’s numbers for that matter.

Much has been said about Sanchez’s rookie season, but this much is clear: he can flat-out hit the baseball. Not only does he have 20 homers, but he also has 12 doubles, helping his slash line to a robust .316/.390/.701.

While the catcher’s start may not be sustainable, it certainly looks like he is up for the competition against big league pitching. Never hitting more than 18 round-trippers in a minor league season, Sanchez has taken it to another level in the big leagues, which is not easy to do. Time will only tell if the Yankees’ next phenom can become the Yankees’ next superstar, but he will be given every opportunity to do so. After New York sold at the deadline, the outlook on the rest of 2016 looked bleak, until Sanchez came along. Yankees fans now have high hopes for 2017, and hope Sanchez can deliver.

4. Jung Ho Kang: 20 (PIT)

With a very useful slash of .287/.355 /.461 with 15 home runs in 2015, Kang made a seamless transition to the big leagues after spending years in the KBO league in Korea. It appeared that the power the infielder had shown in his final year in Korea (40 HR) did not translate to MLB. This was not a big deal for the Pirates, as Kang was already making good of the modest $11 million contract he received.

Then, after debuting late due to injury in 2016, Kang began showing off the power that he displayed in Korea. With 20 HR in a modest 300 AB, Kang looks like a candidate for a 40 HR season in 2017 if he can remain healthy. That production will go a long way in helping the Pirates lineup with a regressing Andrew McCutchen.

As a player with strong on base skills, and now elite level power, Kang is a highly underrated player in today’s game. He receives positive marks on his work at third base, and does it all for a meager salary of $2.5 million annually. Still only 29, the Korean third basemen could be a future superstar in this league if he can remain healthy.

3. Rougned Odor: 31 (TEX)

With one more long one this year, Odor will have doubled his 2015 total of 16. In his first two seasons in the league, the Rangers second baseman was a very streaky hitter. He was extremely cold in April and May, only to turn it on in June and July and then fade a little bit down the stretch.

Still only 22 years of age, the third year infielder has turned up the production all season long, to add another power bat to the Rangers already potent lineup. With his prime years ahead of him, the sky’s the limit for Odor. Multiple All-Star Games could be in his future, as well as countless milestones due to the head start he got by debuting at 20.

Looking deeper at his hitting numbers, Odor’s hard hit percentage is up six points, while his soft hit percentage is down five and a half ticks. All signs point to the Venezuelan second basemen being able to sustain his power hitting ways for years to come. His first two years of nine and 16 home runs respectively could fool you, but not many 20-year-old hitters hit for much power, or even hit at all. Regardless of whether the power sticks, Odor will be an exciting player to watch for years to come.

2. Jake Lamb: 29 (ARI)

In 2014-2015, the young Diamondbacks third baseman mustered only 10 long balls in 476 AB. A slight increase could have been expected, but any expectation of a large jump up would be hampered by the fact that Lamb never hit many home runs in his minor league career either. In 931 AB in the minors, Lamb only hit 37 bombs. With a 25.16 AB/HR in the junior circuit, expectations of a 30 HR season would be quite ridiculous in the big leagues, especially for a player entering his second full season.

Lamb did not care about any such expectations and started the season ablaze, hitting 20 long balls in the season’s first half. He has cooled off considerably since, but has also shown improved gap power with 30 2B and nine 3B on the season. If Lamb can hit one more three bagger, he could become the first player since Curtis Granderson with 10 3B and 29+ HR.

The breakout season from Lamb has been one of the very few positives for Arizona this season. The team anticipates big improvements, and will expect Lamb to carry his share of the load in 2017. A return to his first half form would certainly help, but even finding a nice medium between his first and second half numbers would be productive.

1. Brad Miller: 30 (TB)

In 1,111 AB prior to 2016, Miller hit a respectable 29 long balls. So far this season, the shortstop turned first baseman has already hit 30. When Miller was acquired as a part of the Nate Karns trade, he was not even the biggest addition for the Rays. Logan Morrison was the power hitting first baseman people were talking about, and Miller was merely another soft hitting, above-average fielding infielder.

Boy were people wrong. In 2016, Miller’s SLG is a full 100 points above his previous career mark of .394. In determining how exactly Miller has increased his home run totals, it can be seen that he is pulling the ball more than ever. His pull percentage is at a career of 42.5 percent, while his hard hit percentage is also at a career high of 34.9 percent.

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Qualifying as a shortstop, Miller leads all starters with his 30 bombs, ahead of such players like Corey Seager and Troy Tulowitzki. With the addition of Matt Duffy, Miller has now gone from a soft hitting shortstop to a power hitting first baseman. Quite the turn of events for the 26 year-old. Miller has not allowed the addition of Duffy to push him out of the starting lineup, as his power surge all but guarantees his spot next year as well.

All stats courtesy of Fangraphs unless otherwise noted

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