MLB Payroll Analysis and Offseason Preview: Chicago Cubs

With the regular season over, and all teams’ rosters mostly settled for the year, it’s a good time to start looking at the payroll situation for each MLB team while previewing the upcoming offseason. We continue the series with the Chicago Cubs.

With an MLB best 103-58 record this season, the Cubs will be vying for their first World Series appearance since 1945, with the chance to win it for the first time since 1908. The regular season has been an astounding success, but as Jon Lester recently echoed, it’s World Series or bust for the majors’ best roster.

With two leading MVP candidates in Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, and two leading Cy Young candidates in Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester all playing under Manager of the Year candidate Joe Maddon, the Cubs are loaded with talent. Surrounding those players are experienced veterans like John Lackey, David Ross and Ben Zobrist. Not to mention Jason Heyward and Jake Arrieta, who both have superstar talent. Even with all of these veterans, the most impressive part of the Cubs roster is all the young talent.

With Addison Russell, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras starting almost every day, the Northsiders have a lot of youth as they look to conquer the postseason after sweeping through the regular season easily.

Though all Cubs fans are focused on the playoffs, and rightfully so, there is still an offseason coming in about a month. The team has some key players as free agents, as half of the projected playoff bullpen will have their contracts expire after the year. Catcher David Ross joins them, though he has announced his retirement already. Let’s take a look at each free agent on a case-by-case basis to see who may be coming back.

Note: Only players on 40-man roster/60-day DL with MLB experience accounted for. Players who are not on a 40-man, or on a 40-man without MLB experience have not had their service clocks started.

All stats courtesy of Fangraphs unless otherwise noted

Note: Format of last part of preview has changed from an overall overview to a recommendation of five offseason moves

Options

CO: Club Option, MO: Mutual Option

With one mutual option and one club option, the Cubs will only have a final say in one of the two options this offseason. Let’s look at both cases:

Jason Hammel: With 30 above average starts, the tall righthander has made a strong case for his $10 million option to be picked up. Hammel has made it quite obvious he enjoys his time in Chicago, as he came back after being traded at the 2014 deadline. Similar to 2015, the issue for the Cubs fifth starter has been the second half. In 17 first half games, Hammel had a 3.46 ERA and 1.131 WHIP. In 13 second half starts, he has had 4.35 ERA and a 1.308 WHIP. Perhaps showing he has been a beneficiary of the Cubs great fielding, Hammel’s 4.48 FIP ranks just 57th out of 74 qualified MLB starters.

Due to the horrible market of pitching headlined by players like Jeremy Hellickson this offseason, Hammel would be in line for a nice multi-year deal if the Cubs declined his option. This is highly unlikely to happen as the 11-year veteran has been a valuable innings eater for Joe Maddon and company.

VERDICT: Picked up

Dexter Fowler: As much as the Cubs want Fowler to accept his mutual option for just $9 million, that is not going to happen. With his best OPS in four seasons, Fowler is lined up nicely for a large multi-year pact once he hits the open market. This go-round should be much smoother for Fowler compared to last. After 2015, teams were chasing guys like Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon. This offseason, Fowler will be second only to Cespedes on most team’s outfield wish-lists.

As valuable as Fowler is to the Cubs in the leadoff spot, he will most likely head where more money is being offered. After all, top prospect Albert Almora Jr. had an impressive showing in his cup of tea in the big leagues earlier this season, showing he could be capable of taking over the spot full time. Even without Almora, the Cubs could line up a formidable trio of Heyward, Zobrist, and a returning Kyle Schwarber, with Jorge Soler and Matt Szczur on the bench. With all of that depth, paying Fowler a large sum is unjustifiable.

VERDICT: Fowler signs a 4-year, $70-80 million contract elsewhere.

Under Contract

The Cubs have some great young players under contract for the foreseeable future. Superstar Anthony Rizzo is an absolute bargain as a controllable bat through 2021, his age 32 season. I’m not going to even bother highlighting RIzzo’s greatness, besides for pointing out that he may be the best all around first basemen in the game and an MVP candidate this year and most likely for the next few years. Soler is also a bargain, even if he has not lived up to his potential quite yet. Controllable through 2020, never at more than $6 million a year, Soler can end up having one of the top contracts in baseball if he can produce through an entire healthy season.

In Ben Zobrist and Jon Lester, the team also has a couple great veterans signed for the next three-five seasons. Lester is a Cy Young candidate this year, while Zobrist earned an All Star start with a terrific all around year.

John Lackey and Miguel Montero are both off the books after 2017. Lackey will surely be in the rotation next season, but his future is unknown after that as he will be a 39 year old with a lof of miles on his arm. Montero is a little different, as he is not guaranteed to be back in 2017, even if he is under contract. With so much talent in the system, the Cubs may not want to use a 25 man roster spot on a struggling Montero. At the same time, the team needs a veteran catcher, especially with David Ross retiring. But with only 11% of base stealers caught, Chicago may go in another direction if they can find an upgrade to backup Willson Contreras.

Jason Heyward is another player under contract, and he may stick through 2023, though he can opt out after 2019. At the rate he is hitting at, there is no way the slick-fielding Heyward opts out, even if he will only be 30 at the time. Though he has shown some flashes of turning around his hitting, Heyward’s 2016 has been a disaster at the plate. His fielding and baserunning have saved him a bit, but as he ages those two qualities will deteriorate. Thus far, the large eight year deal seems like a rare miss for Epstein, but the former Brave and Cardinal will have a ton of opportunities to turn it around. Imagine if Heyward has a few key hits in the playoffs to help lead the Cubs to a World Series, no one in Chicago would care if Heyward slashes .000/.000/.000 for the rest of his career.

Arbitration

With six cases of arbitration coming up, the Northsiders will have some tough negotiating to do with their own players this offseason. Let’s take a look at each case:

Jake Arrieta: Taking a step back after an all-worldly 2015, the powerful righty has still been a top of the line pitcher this season. After starting off hot, Arrieta struggled with a 4.88 ERA in July, but bounced back in August only to see his production decreae again in September. Regardless, the former Oriole has had a very good season, even if it ranks third among the team’s starters. His 197 ⅓ innings place him 16th among qualified starters in WAR, and 20th in win probability added (WPA). He should see a decent sized increase to get him to a salary in the $12-14 million range before that number balloons even further when he enters free agency.

Pedro Strop: Another player entering his final season of arbitration in 2017, Strop has had another solid year as a set-up man in the Cubs bullpen. With a 2.68 ERA in 211 ⅓ innings since joining Chicago, Strop has been good enough to consider the 2013 trade of Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger a good one on his own, without even mentioning Arrieta’s inclusion. After an injury-marred August, Strop has come back in September with a strong four appearances before the playoff run begins. With a year similar to his last, Strop should see another nice raise to get him near the $5 million mark.

Hector Rondon: Rondon’s season has been a tale of two halves, as he was unbelievable in the first, and has crashed down to earth in the second. With a 1.72 ERA and 0.670 WHIP before the break, Rondon was one of the top closers in baseball. When Chapman was acquired, Rondon was relegated to an eighth inning role, where he has pitched to a very bad 6.41 ERA and 1.475 WHIP. With decent numbers overall, Rondon will still get a decent raise, as he will be looking for a larger one after 2017 as he may get the opportunity to close again next year.

Justin Grimm: Similar to Rondon, Grimm’s season has been made up of two very different halves, albeit the opposite of Rondon. Coming off a stellar 2015, Grimm struggled out of the gate with a 5.34 ERA in 40 first half appearances. Since then, the powerful righty has had a very useful 2.45 ERA in 27 games. He should receive a modest raise, with a chance for an even better one after 2017 if he can sustain his hot pitching for the entire year.

Tim Federowicz and Munenori Kawasaki: Two AAA players who have spent some time with the big league team, neither are guaranteed a contract for 2017. Federowicz struggled in his limited time, though he may be signed as depth with the loss of David Ross coming, though Schwarber could easily fill in as a third catcher. Kawasaki has been quite useful in a very small sample. A player with speed, versatility, and a fun personality, Kawasaki is a nice fit for a Joe Maddon run team, and will likely get a minor league contract to return.

Team Control

The team has 21 players on its 40-man roster under team control. Let’s take a look at the young ballplayers one position at a time.

Pitchers: With ERA king and Cy Young Candidate Kyle Hendricks under team control for 2017, the Cubs will have an absolute bargain on the books for the next four years. Carl Edwards Jr. and Mike Montgomery have both been very good, and will be controllable for the next five seasons. Having three more than capable options on the pitching staff not eligible for free agency until at least 2021 is a huge boon for the Cubs future.

Beyond those three names, Rob Zastryzny has been the most promising since being promoted in August. As a 24 year old lefty, the former second round pick could stick in the pen, or transition back to the rotation before too long. Other pitchers under team control have not produced at a clip anywhere close to the previously mentioned four, though Jake Buchanan had a very nice start at the end of the season.

Infielders: The players included here are good enough to make up a core of a team on their own. Superstar and likely MVP Kris Bryant is under team control until 2022, when he could have six MVP’s (I know, unlikely, but I can wish). Shortstop Addison Russell has been terrific as well, slamming 21 home runs with 95 runs batted in to accompany top of the line defense.

Utility infielder Javier Baez has also had a breakout year, even if he does not start every game. Though he has not reached his full offensive potential due to strike out troubles, 107 in 419 AB, he has made up for it by excelling on defense. If he can combine his hitting power with some plate discipline, he could become a superstar. With all three controllable to 2022 along with Rizzo, the Cubs will have one of the better infields in the game for years to come.

Behind the plate, Willson Contreras debuted this season with a bang. In his first 21 games, the 24 year old Venezuelan slashed a terrific .312/.398/.584 with five long balls. His line has decreased, but he has remained productive while also gaining the trust of the team’s best veteran pitchers.

Beyond the starters are Tommy La Stella and Jeimer Candelario. La Stella put himself in the midst of controversy after failing to report to the minors after being demoted. Regardless of his strange behavior, the former Brave has been a very good hitter, capable of playing second and third. Candelario had a brief big league stint, but is still too inexperienced to make a big impact early next year. Still, keep an eye on the third basemen as a player to watch for the future.

Outfielders: The most notable name on the list is possible future superstar Kyle Schwarber. The power hitter out of Indiana University had a terrific .842 OPs with 16 home runs in just 232 AB in 2015. After tearing his ACL early this season, Schwarber will look to bounce back in 2017 and improve upon his fielding to solidify himself as the future left fielder and end all speculation about a trade to the AL.

Like Schwarber, Albert Almora may have a permanent starting role next season for the first time. His positive marks in limited time in center field when Dexter Fowler was injured showed he could take the spot for an entire year. He also hit to a .764 OPS with four home runs in only 111 AB.

Matt Szczur is also under control for one more year, and is a valuable defensive bench piece for Joe Maddon. He has appeared in at least 15 games at each outfield position, and has been a good pinch hitter with a total of 22 RBI.

Final Analysis and Five Recommended Moves

With over $100 million in commitments already, the Cubs won’t have a ton of room to splurge like they did in 2015-2016 with the additions of Lackey, Heyward, and Zobrist. Still, the team should have room to add a few impact pieces, but will most likely not spend too much money as they will have to begin saving up for extensions with their young players. Without further adieu, here’s the list of five things the Cubs should do this offseason

1. Let Dexter Fowler Walk: The centerfielder has been quite the valuable player this season as evidenced by the team’s 10-17 record when Fowler was on the DL in the middle of the summer. Still the team has ready-made replacements already under contract or under control. At 30 years old, Fowler is in line for a nice four-five year deal that will most likely be in the $70-80 million range. The team would be better suited handing Fowler a qualifying offer and reaping draft pick compensation when the outfielder signs elsewhere.

With Javier Baez vying for everyday time, Ben Zobrist is forced to move to the outfield with Jason Heyward. Though Joe Maddon loves versatility, it would be near impossible to find enough at bats for Jorge Soler, Kyle Schwarber, and Albert Almora if Fowler were to be re-signed.

These players are not necessarily better than Fowler, but are much cheaper. The team may lose a bit of value by replacing Fowler with the aforementioned trio of players, but a marginal amount at most.

Never an elite fielder, Fowler saved as many runs in 1,023 innings (2) as Albert Almora did in 232. As a hitter, even with his best season in OPS+ with a 126, he was not as good as Kyle Schwarber in his rookie season (130).

The Cubs would be smart to save their money in this instance and instead use their cash for pitching that will not be as easily replaced.

2. Bring Back Either Trevor Cahill or Travis Wood: Both pending free agents have had solid seasons in the pen, but both may bolt for a starting opportunity.

This season, Chicago was incredibly fortunate to avoid any big injuries to any of their rotation. When John Lackey missed a few starts, guys like Trevor Cahill and Mike Montgomery were able to fill in admirably. If Wood and Cahill walk, Montgomery would be left as the only pitcher outside of the rotation with successful starting experience.

As the Dodgers displayed this season, you can never have too much pitching depth. The front office must resign one of these guys, as it is not easy to find pitchers able to be productive in the pen and rotation if needed.

The team can opt for the cheaper one, or the one they believe is better. Either way, they may have to overpay a bit to keep one of the two in the bullpen, but it will be a price well worth it if the rotation sees any injuries.

3. Sign at Least One Established Left Handed Reliever: With the possibility of both Travis Wood and Aroldis Chapman walking, the Cubs could be left with only swingman Mike Montgomery as a left hander. The former Mariner has been impressive, but mostly as a long man and part-time starter. The team needs an experienced back of the pen lefty to get tough hitters like Joey Votto or Gregory Polanco out in big situations.

Options include Boone Logan, J.P. Howell, Jerry Blevins, Javier Lopez, Michael Dunn, Matt Belisle,and Marc Rzepczynski.

My personal preference would be Boone Logan who has had a very good season in Colorado of all places. His ERA is not great, but partly because he faced a lot of righties. Against left handed batters, Logan pitched to a .477 OPS, only allowing 15 hits in 106 AB. A contract for the 11 year veteran would not be too costly, staying below $10 million yearly to be sure.

Another good option would be J.P. Howell who has faltered a bit this year but was previously had two stellar seasons in Los Angeles.

Signing one or even two lefties would bode well for a playoff caliber team that will have a much different bullpen next season.

4. Do NOT Look to Trade Schwarber: Trade rumors have ran rampant since Schwarber’s electrifying debut in 2015. A great hitter, the big lefty has no real place in the field. The former catcher has been thrown in left field, and has not been completely awful. In 300+ innings in the outfield in 2015, Schwarber had -3 DRS. His elite 130 OPS+ makes up for these fielding deficiencies, but on a team of elite fielders, Schwarber does not seem to fit in.

The Cubs would be smart to work on the converted outfielders defense throughout the offseason in anticipation that he will be spending a lot of time there in 2017.

Schwarber’s 14.5 AB/HR is an elite number that could see him hit 40+ if he can stay healthy throughout an entire season. The left fielder’s non-soft hit ball% of 84.8% is comparable to that of Bryce Harper who has the same exact number throughout his career.

Trading a player with this monumental potential would be a mistake that could haunt the team for years.

5. Don’t Overreact to a Failed Playoff Chase

A simple but quick to-do, if the team fails to win a World Series, no dramatic moves should be made in response. The Cubs have been the best team in baseball all season long. That does not guarantee them a championship unfortunately. If the team were to fall short of their title aspirations, some may be calling for a big move. A trade of Arrieta if he struggles, a benching of Heyward, a trade for an elite bullpen. The moves could be endless. Currently, the Cubs have a terrific mix of skills, including pitching, hitting, fielding, and running. The Cubs should keep every part of their current core and that is what they are likely to do.

Next: Dodger's Continue to Struggle Against Lefties